Anyone else feeling very nervous, GE chat

[Blarblarblar]

Anyone else feel like Scotland is about to get a right spanking after the elections.
News coverage is so negative towards Scotland at the moment most of the politicians are spouting some pretty anti Scottish feeling. I mean Scotland stayed, did what they wanted and now are about to get punished for it. I feel like we just aren't quite cowed enough.
If Tory UKIP form a coalition I think we might end up banned from wearing Tartan, playing the pipes or saying Alex's name. I'm joking but actually pretty worried.

Blarblarblar it is open enough for John Major and Lord Forsyth to criticise here.

Scotland's position is stronger in this election because of the UKIP threat IMO. Most of the possible UKIP seats would otherwise be Tory. If Labour can't win in Scotland, then we will have a Tory government, unless UKIP split the vote.

I live in prime UKIP territory (lucky me) and they have a lot of support, but most of it is from people who know how the country should be run but usually CBA to vote, so I'm hoping this time will be no different.

Model5 I genuinely think the Tories should split - they've been arguing over Europe for as long as I can remember and I'm in my 40s. I am however not convinced that UKIP will get enough seats to give them enough numbers, and I'm not sure if anyone else would go in with them.

I find the prospect of an EU referendum baffling. 2017 is the year we have the presidency for 6 months, so depending on the date of the vote we'd spend that either discussing whether to go or in the process of leaving. Also, if you think about the time frame for the Scottish referendum, and all the issues that were debated there - are we really supposed to believe that 2017 is far enough away that negotiations could take place on terms of membership, then we could have a meaningful public debate on all the issues? Whatever your stance on the EU, it affects pretty much every aspect of life in this country, and a major decision like this deserves enough time for everyone to explore the issues.

Going back to the Tories and Scotland - I think they know that unless they bring in PR they are a long time away from getting a significant number of seats, as their support is geographically widely-spread. They therefore have very little to lose from massive SNP gains, but because the polls are close UK wide then Labour losing big-style in Scotland gives them a chance. Although at the moment I expect Labour will end up as a minority government (depending on whether the Lib Dem vote collapses as much as the polls suggest).

Based on current polls - SNP don't actually need to do well at all, if labour keep all the seats in Scotland that they currently hold, they'll still be short of a majority large enough to form a government.

UKIP aren't a party that will get far in a fptp system. The polls bear this out.

The issue of a potential EU referendum seems to have disappeared off the agenda. The Tories just aren't going to do well enough to get it through. (The lib dems would never agree, even if they weren't facing a big drop in MPs)

Tabulahrasa, obviously if everything stays the same, we get the same government we've got now.

But, the likelihood is that the Liberal Democrats will do much worse this time and some of those seats will go to Labour, then there's the unknown quantity of UKIP taking Conservative seats, or splitting the Conservative vote so that Labour take seats that would otherwise have been Conservative. If that happens, then the number of Labour seats in Scotland becomes crucial.

Personally, I don't think UKIP will do as well as the polls and the (loud) public support suggests because on the day those people won't vote but that's why the Scottish vote is so important this time round.

"Tabulahrasa, obviously if everything stays the same, we get the same government we've got now."

Well yes, but that wasn't what I meant, lol.

Hang on I'll try again...

Taking into account the current polls for the rest of the uk and predicted number of seats - labour would need to make quite considerable gains in Scotland to form a majority government. As in to get a clear majority they'd need every seat except 2.

So unless the rest of the UK suddenly swings towards labour, SNP gains won't make the difference between having a majority government or not.

No they won't and the likelihood is it won't matter. However, I do think the Tories are very worried abut UKIP. If you talk to the man in the street round here they have a lot of support. Don't know if that will translate to votes but it might. The danger (for the tories) isn't really that UKIP win seats but that they take votes from them, letting LD or Labour win seats they currently hold.

If Labour gain a few seats in England this way, they won't need to gain so many in Scotland. It won't necessarily take a big Labour swing, more not voting Conservative/LD IYSWIM.

Wings over Scotland is produced by an ex gaming journalist who lives in Bath. I suspect he is trying to get a better job or something. I don't know why he calls himself Rev.

A Tory/UKIP coalition wouldn't be enough

CON 281
LAB 281
LIB 17
UKIP 1
Green 1
SNP 48
PlaidC 3
Minor 0
N.Ire 18

If these predictions are right then the SNP would be able to cause some aggravation but their headline comments about Trident are nonsense because the Tories would vote with Labour in that case. There would also be a considerable incentive for a Tory / Labour pact to pass a bill implementing English votes for English matters. If the SNP were not allowed to vote on devolved matters then their rhetoric gets very weak.

I've not mentioned wings over Scotland and up until Hirples link had not realised it existed. I was referring to the news I'm watching reading. Whoever he is he's not making it up though.

The Barnett formula was recently described by 'Mr Barnett' himself as too generous - if there is anti-Scottish sentiment I think it's understandable; free prescriptions in Scotland and no uni tuition fees for Scottish students, unlike English students eg. Meanwhile the SNP complain that 'scots' don't get the government 'we' vote for (except for when there's a labour government)

alteredimages the deadline for proxy applications is 28th April. Don't know if they process them before that. But might be worth phoning.

It will be interesting seeing the main parties backtrack after the election as they try to explain they didn't really mean the comments they made about Scotland stealing their money and breaking their democracy

There is a lot of anti-Scottish rhetoric which seems to rely on the electorate not knowing how democracy works and stirring up aggrieved feelings about Scotland possibly voting for a Scottish party.

tbb UKIP is only the threat that the MSM is allowing it to be. With its small number of representatives in the UK and Europe, UKIP should never have been accorded such prominence in the GE campaign. I don't think it will translate into seats. I don't think Nigel Farage even cares if it does. His aim has always been to push immigration and the EU up the agenda. He has managed both.

I sometimes think the SNP would be able to get seats in some English constituencies such is the popularity of Nicola Sturgeon.

Thanks *perihelion ". The form arrived at my house this morning but needs to be back by the 28th. Not sure my budget stretches to FedEx.

It's a bit confusing to say that anti-Scottish sentiment is understandable but anti-English sentiment is not. I don't harbour bad feeling towards any nation myself, but rather than people feeling 'anti-Scottish' because the Scottish government provides free prescriptions and so on, perhaps they should be directing those sentiments towards their parliaments/Westminster government for not providing the same.
I think the election result will be interesting, we live in a safe seat which, thankfully, looks like it will be lost for the first time. Which is good as previous MP was awful.

Well, what used to be a safe seat I should have said.

Altered, I'm overseas as well. I signed, scanned and sent the proxy form back attached to an email. I was told this was ok. I just have to check now that my mum gets sent my form.

I sometimes think the SNP would be able to get seats in some English constituencies such is the popularity of Nicola Sturgeon.

That's a bit deluded. People indulge an outsider (which is still what she is perceived to be in the main) just as people indulged Nigel Farage. Journos love it. "What an exciting/interesting/gamechanging/fresh politician we have here. 1000 words and a weekly column filled" It runs out as soon as someone isn't perceived to be fresh. Usually as soon as the next fresh person comes along.

JA

Add to, I agree. People need to be more aware of how the journalists manipulate people's perception of things. And of how trite their comments often are.

Ahh, thanks Jim. I'll try that.

I agree that being 'anti' any nation or party is unhelpful.

And such is the popularity of Nic Sturgeon in some parts of Scotland that there will surely be a backlash sooner or later. I take the point about journos engaging in (lazy) personality politics though. Silent majority and all that.

Anyway who cares what NS wears? Fancy shoes - so does Theresa May!

I find the stuff about how politicians look and dress so dull. I think Nicola dresses really well and I admire her 'image'. Doesn't make any difference to the fact I can't imagine myself ever voting SNP again. And I don't care how silly Dave or Ed look when they're eating.

I thought the guy they interviewed after one of the debates who said he was going to vote UKIP but was really impressed by Nicola Sturgeon, although he lived in England so couldn't vote SNP, completely baffling. How on earth was his decision making process working??