The second leg of the double dip recession has just begun.
Yesterday, I went in to our provincial town centre and noticed a lot of large stores had no customers in. I spoke to a number of shop staff and the message was clear. The past 2 weeks has been dead. No one could explain it. Look also at the what the boss of Carpetright said:
Lord Harris told analysts yesterday that there was "no question" Carpetright's own sales had "double-dipped" and cautioned that the downturn Carpetright has seen could follow in other parts of the retail sector.
"Everyone talked about a double dip and we did," he said, "Christmas, September, October, November were very, very good. [But] I've never seen a time where it goes back so much [as] it did in January and February."
He added that a slowdown in sales in January was understandable because of heavy snowfall, but he was disappointed not to see a bounce back in February and March.
"Does it mean that we're going to have a double dip with the other people [retailers] coming to it, the fashion people who have had a good run? Probably yes," he said, predicting a tough 2010."
The banks are not lending, they have huge numbers of dud loans they still have to right off. We are a long way to go before we are out of the recesison with a high risk of slipping into a deflationary depression.
The mini boom we have seen in the last 18 months is all down to Govt money and that has now run out. To think of the billions that have been spent and yet there is the most anaemic recovery tells us just how bad it is. Govt spending is about to be cut regardless of who wins the election an interest rates are already rising.
House prices will inevitably fall under those circumstances.