How do you arrange your face when the agent tells you as the'buyer' that prices have definitely bottomed out?

[kayspace]

We're going for the polite nod on the basis the same bloke MIGHT be showing us 20 more houses yet so it might be counter productive to lie on the floor, kicking our legs in the air, screaming with laughter.

I was going to say "Where DO they get their ideas from?" but I suppose the real question is "DO you think I'm stupid?"

I admit our local agents have seen a huge upsurge in interest over the last few weeks- but no one's seeing 'interest' translate into 'sales'. Surely THEY can see that what's happening is potential buyers are now having a look around to see how much more 'x' sum NOW buys. Then we sit on our hands watching propertybee to wait for the next fall.

So how many agents are telling you the market has bottomed out?

And if you need to look at 20 houses before you buy, you really aren't doing your prelim research properly.

I'd just smile and say, so if the prices drops will you pay the difference in say 6 - 12 months time, I mean if you're that confident put your money where your mouth is and sign a contract to that effect.

I am probably one of the most bearish posters on this forum when it comes to house prices but I am pretty much expecting a spring bounce before prices continue downwards. It ALWAYS happens at some point in the cycle around now, just part of the way it goes. Nothing to get excited about, and no need to deny it happens either. I posted a graph on here recently showing the classic shape of a crash, tis quite interesting. It draws a few people in and then the state of the economy makes itself felt again. Don't forget the recession has barely begun and many people haven't really felt it yet so are still not feeling all that negative about house prices. Probably another big lurch down later in the year.

Also you can't expect estate agents not to try to talk things up - they have been losing their jobs at a phenomenal rate and if they can get a few sales by convincing people things are on the up then good for them. It's a lot harder now for people to make the drastic kinds of mistakes of the past (ie. 6 x salary, 100% mortgages etc) so they will probably end up alright.

You sound very sure of yourself Kayspace so why don't you just arrange your face into a neutral look when the agent is telling you something you don't believe and quietly get on with the job.

And report back to us when you get your bargain. We're all dying to hear.

Someone has sent me an excerpt of headlines from the last crash. Including:

From FRI 10 JUL 1992 - The Times
"House prices edge up

House prices rose 0.7 per cent last month, the Halifax building society said. The rise, it added, could be a sign that prices were stabilising."

Think it was 1996 before we were out of it. Looking through the headlines there were quite a few of these 'Ooh! Looks like it might be on the up again!' type of sentiments.

Mintyy, as I explained, my reaction IS a polite smile. I AM doing 'my job' quite well, actually, researching the market, trailing around various houses in various degrees of over-priced'ness, and making my own appraisals - but IS the agent doing HIS job properly if he's saying the market has bottomed out? Were he to say something along the lines of "Well, obviously the market HAD to correct sooner or later, and right now we may be in a period of reducing prices but the fact remains: Because no one can predict the bottom of this downturn, it's up to you, the potential buyer to decide when the price is right for the property you want before you'll put in an offer but MY advice would be that once that bottom has been hit, there'll be much more competition coming out of the woodwork, so be aware you may lose your dream property if you hesitate too long'

Now, in that he's a)been honest and b) encouraged me to consider the idea I MAY face much stiffer competition as the months draw on and non-buyers save more deposit, the government forces banks to lend again, and thus the market stabilises. That MIGHT cause me to offer sooner than later.

Win Win.

Finally regarding the idea that I'm after 'a bargain'.... Like everyone I think 'a bargain' would be nice. BUT what I and everyone else needs is sanity injected back into this market. If I were to pray for/ hang out for a bargain, I'd be fuelling the winner/loser, boom/bust cycle that got us INTO this mess in the first place.

We need a market where the first time buyer
a) wouldn't necessary encompass every Tom/Dick/Harry
b) held at least a 20% deposit and
c) would expect that starter home to cost no more than 3x the average salary.

For those who lost sight of what some MIGHT call those self-evident truths and thus went forth to borrow crazy multiples to buy wildly overpriced houses and who now PRAY we won't see 1980 interest rates again anytime soon- please don't fell bitter towards those who DIDN'T go mad....

You may call it smug (as we certainly did sitting at dinner parties with you 2 years ago) but I'm sure that you can understand, if not approve that we're now getting impatient awaiting the maturing of the 'correction' so that we, too might get on the property ladder and walk away from the insecurity of renting and the vagaries and whims of landlords!

God what a farking dull dinner party that must have been....

Yes it was.

Now they're onto schools and what a scandal it is they may not be able to stay private any more.

Ach I think there might be a temporary upward blip in house prices at the moment and estate agents really do believe it is the end of the downward slope and a sign that things are picking up. For what it is worth, we were gazumped on a London property earlier this week and other properties in the same area are going like hot cakes. Personally I think there is further down to go.

Yes, I suppose it amazes me that we, 'the public' can see and analyse an overall trend yet the property 'professionals' appear not to! Of course it's their livelihood but SHOULD that make you immune to reality?

There are no factors in place that even suggest the worst of the downturn is over, are there?

Kay - I suggest that you and Sorrento make friends on facebook, then you can debate this subject, whilst wholeheartedly agreeing with each other, without boring the rest of us into a stupour ...

Ah Minty don't you like what you're hearing.
Sorry I shall behave myself "House Prices Only Ever go up" as you were

Don't be silly.

I don't know what the fuss is about, if you don't have to sell, don't sell, it's not a good time now. In W Midlands they are trying the spring bounce on and put prices up this January on houses that have been unsold for months, which is a bit of a joke. Fact is that prices here for four bed detached have never come down, they are actually higher than in 2007 (one house was 50k higher than in 2007). For us it's actually cheaper to buy back in London where we sold as asking prices have crashed there. So my question is, if prices crash in the cities, it will surely filter in the rest of the country? Apparently not. It's very regional, some areas are going down, others aren't, they are actually still rising. I think the penny has dropped for those who are trying to remortgage as they are getting lower valuations. I just want to buy a house and it feels like I'm being sucked in a black hole...

(Off on a tangent, you could get a square bracket by copying-and-pasting one from the "Links and smileys" section at the bottom of the screen. It'd be a bit of a faff, admittedly.)

I'd be delighted if house prices were on the up, not specifically because of the house prices but because it would probably suggest that we are on our way out of economic crisis. But looking that everything else that's going on I suspect that this is just a dead cat bounce situation.

Might try the link thing, thanks!

Just to add to the debate - we viewed a house that had 13 (yes 13) viewings lined up for today alone. Feck! It was a very ordinary 1930s semi, although in a fab location (catchment area for v.g. school, stream at the bottom of the garden). DH and I couldn't believe it!