Do you think there will be a load coming on the market after the budget

[paddleboardingmum]

...or will people wait till after Christmas? nothing has really been coming on in recent weeks.

Who will the landlords sell to though? It won"t be Big Corp, they know which way the wind is blowing on jobs, immigration, and the Japan story has got global credit markets rattled now, they won"t want a repeat of the losses on their commercial property bets?

People like me waiting to a buy property that is cheaper than it previously was. I know that LLs won’t as there’s too much risk and eroding margins. I appreciate that prices are still beyond the reach of most unless you have a decent deposit.

"prices are still beyond the reach of most unless you have a decent deposit."

I wouldn"t be throwing a decent deposit into property at this stage, it will disappear. If most people can"t buy either prices or borrowing rates have to move.

Are you suggesting the property market in London is going to completely collapse? I don’t think prices are increasing any time soon. There is probably still more room for a decline in London, particularly on flats with huge service charges (7-11k on 1m+ flats is normal in my area). Those flats aren’t shifting easily. Areas that have relied on foreign money are struggling, eg St John’s Wood. Basement flat and those requiring works are also stuck on the market. But there is a market for well-priced, decent property.

No, I`m saying a lot of recent buyers will lose their deposits, for all I know there were still properties changing hands during WW2 and there certainly were during the last proper crash that wasn"t bailed out in the late 80"s early 90"s, many people in London lost their shirts in that one though.

Those that rode through it did very well.

You mean those that bought at peak in about 1986 and held the property until the early 2000"s to see the start of the present bubble then managed to negotiate the 2008 crash and global bailout to downsize in the last three or four years before things went South again? Maybe if they bought a flat in London when they were twenty, and stayed in it all those years and decided to downsize in their 60`s that might have worked, in reality though most of the speculators and those with far too much mortgage debt were toast by the early 90"s.

That's true but it doesn't follow that the same thing will therefore happen over the next 10/20/30 years.

Good point, the mortgage debt burden is much greater now, and we are heading into very choppy waters with employment and credit markets I think, many people buying in London in the mid 80"s were on good money and the mortgage debt and house price wasn"t the ridiculous burden it is now, they thought the good times would never end until the chancellor pulled the plug!

The main point is though, it is after the budget, is there a load coming on to the market and is any of it selling?

to answer @KeepPumping and the OP, I haven’t seen loads more coming on the market in my area (SW London) but there’s a steady trickle.
meanwhile, today I’ve accepted an offer on my house which is outside of London (which was a BTL, don’t hate me! Backstory is that I started letting after I moved in with DP and now 13 years later we’ve split and I need the equity to buy a home for my DC and me!). The point is, it went on the market and had not a single viewing in 5-6 weeks, then the day after the budget 3 viewings were booked and I’ve now accepted an offer for a shade under asking price.

We had to drop 15% to sell our house. Bought in the 2021 boom. So we made a loss. We went south to North and back again (jobs) and there is nothing to buy. Those that are on have been on all year and not dropped. We offered on 3 10% under but max of our budget. They are all boomers who don't need to move so won't drop. Which is fine that's their prerogative. 2 of 3 had no other offers at all and all had only 2 other viewings. The other had an offer over from a non proceedable buyer but wanted to wait for them to become proceedable. Theyve all been taken off to be put back on in spring.
So I bloody hope some new stuff comes on asap as we are crammed into a rental like sardines.

I’ve just been reading the “Landlord evicting us” posts and it’s occurred to me lots of landlords, may well ask their tenants to leave in January because they don’t want to ruin their tenants’ Christmas. I believe many section 21 notices will be issued before May 1, 2026, as after that date they will not be valid. So lots potentially hitting the market by spring.

The agents I’ve spoken to are saying exactly this .

I’ve seen a number of reductions post-budget. I don’t think there will be swathes of buyers though as the economics of buying hasn’t fundamentally changed since pre-budget.

"the economics of buying hasn’t fundamentally changed since pre-budget."

Exactly, if anything it has got more difficult, mortgage rates look likely to rise from here I think.

I'm sure there will be more properties coming on, not this year but from early Spring onwards. I also suspect that supply will outstrip demand in many areas. The cramped rental may end up working to your advantage if you can be patient.

While waiting for next year's Spring supply you could check out Ben The Builder's channel on YT. He's a site manager for a building company and frankly I'm surprised he's still employed given the information he's publishing regarding new builds. Check it out before he gets taken out!

Might check that out, thanks. Not hard to find the story all over the internet though, MSM seem strangely quiet on this for some reason?

https://thenegotiator.co.uk/news/land-new-homes/new-build-property-sales-drop-to-lowest-in-over-15-years/

Risky move for landlords with large mortgage debt outstanding, who will they sell to? FTB don"t have the same level of access to debt that they had, if landlording is so bad then it won"t be landlords? Big Corp surely isn"t buying when they see the drop in new-build sales and the political climate in the UK now? Getting stuck without a tenant unable to sell for what you paid and also paying the mortgage debt on the BTL and maybe double council tax won"t be fun, I think many landlords will just try to hold on through the new legislation, older landlords with no mortgage debt might try to sell.

I know a landlord trying to offload a few. None had offers and he stuck one back on the rental market and got 300 less rent per month. Another landlord had all his properties repossessed and there has been a glut of them in my area. They all were hideously structured for HMOs. Some eventually sold at “bargain” prices (relative to others in the blocks).

I can see this being the future for many landlords who bought basic flats etc. Larger houses will probably always find a buyer, might have to reduce the price though, and landlords with no mortgage debt can take a hit just to get out if they can"t handle the legislation.