House Prices going into 2025

[Twiglets1]

We often refer to House Price Indexes (HPIs) in discussions re house prices but there are several out there so which to use?

If you want to know average asking prices use the Rightmove HPI and the price will be for the entire-market in England & Wales.

If you want to know average selling prices it's either the Halifax or Nationwide HPIs but they only have data on buyers who have mortgages approved with them in the UK, so cash buyers for example will be excluded.

The Office for National Statistics HPI is arguably the most accurate as it publishes sold prices on all transactions in the UK (mortgages & cash). However, there is a delay so the data is at least a couple of months behind.

Anacdata HPI also covers mortgage & cash transactions and is the first to report regional monthly selling prices, but only covers England & Wales.

What are people's thoughts now? I still think it's stagnating.

Properties are hanging about for ages here. Some have been on RM for over a year, some are off and on, some have had massive price reductions.

Reductions in my neck of the woods. Well priced turn key properties are going. Lots of bigger expensive homes new to market in years just sitting there. I can’t see who is going to buy them all.

What I have noticed in the wider area that some areas seem very out of sync price wise because other traditional areas are stagnating , its like the message is still to get through if that makes sense.

And some of the reductions are huge which shows are out of whack the original asking prices were.

I agree (there are regional variations though).

I just looked on Rightmove at Sold house prices for my area and it says

Overall, the historical sold prices in x over the last year were similar to the previous year and similar to the 2022 peak.

Does that account for inflation?

What's happening to house prices? (Which, November 25)

The latest data from the Land Registry shows an annual rise of 2.6% in the 12 months to September, with the average UK house price now standing at £271,531.

The Land Registry's UK House Price Index is the most reliable barometer of what's happening to house prices, as it's based on actual property sales rather than asking prices. It works on a two-month lag, so the most recent figures are for September 2025.

The regional variations are interesting at the bottom of the article. The region with the highest annual rise in house prices is Northern Ireland at 7.1%. The regions with the lowest annual rises in house prices are the South West and the South East at 0.9% and London with a minus figure of - 1.8%.

www.which.co.uk/news/article/whats-happening-to-house-prices-aVCwI8I22pBe

I’m SW London, I think it makes sense cheaper areas are increasing faster.

I did read somewhere that London is the only major UK city getting older. Affordability does matter

Exactly. A lot of initial asking prices are very far out of kilter with the sort of price that buyers are willing to pay. Sellers and agents have been very slow on the uptake, as you say.
The higher end homes in my area haven't been selling since 2022 and are slowly reduced/swapped around to different agents, etc. Hardly any of them have sold but many remain on the market.
Overall, there have been some areas/types of house (generally cheaper areas) doing okay but things have clearly tailed downwards since around September with all the budget rumours. Things might improve slightly but the general trend is a continued one downward imo. You only need to open your eyes and look at the state of the economy to figure this out.

In the whole of the South, prices for detached properties are down on average compared to 2022, often over 10-15% down nominally, never mind in real terms (see Otta below). Semis in most of the North have done much better.

Otta uses actual sold prices from the Land Registry. It's far more accurate than the published, headline ONS/LR data as they are continually adding more data and then adjusting it downwards for months and months afterwards.
There's a chap called Mark Tabrett on X who explains how the figures are altered/manipulated very effectively:
https://x.com/mrtabrett/status/1980934549254410624

https://ottaproperty.co.uk/trends

Acadata also shows an annual fall on average of -4% in the year to October.
https://cdn.esurv.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/House-Price-Index-England-and-Wales-October-2025.pdf

I think prime areas in London are down 25-30% but cheaper areas will be doing much better, for sure.

Interest rates make a massive difference when prices are so high

I think it's a combination of interest rates, how much disposable income people have after tax and after other things like childcare and train fares, and how people feel the future is going to go. It's not going to look as attractive to pay loads without prices going up like they used to.

Just out of curiosity. Have you had a look at the property type stats for your area for the last 10 years using the Area 360 / Area Profile data? It'd be interesting to see how that compares to RM and whether you think it looks reasonable or not. That's what I now use when judging an area.

But, the national house price indices (of all types and brands) are pretty meaningless to an individual.

No I haven't done that. Maybe I will try it later it would be interesting to see, thank you.

Thanks. Even within the home type I see variations. The graph show the median price. But I've also noted cases where the median has gone down but the P75 (75th Percentile) has gone up. This is useful when you look at the price of a property, say, 5 years ago. You need to work out whether that price was closer to the median or P75 (or other) and then compare to this year.

Have fun!

Interesting in my suburb they're up on the previous year and 2022 peak. But it varies month to month. Some months it's up 8% on previous year and 4% on 2022. Others the figures are more like 4% and 3%. I figure things like several large 700k properties selling in one month skews it occasionally.

True here, ok up and up coming areas where families can afford the next step up are increasing in price. The traditional better areas are dropping. According to right move anyway.

I've just had a go with the Area 360 tool @XVGN such a lot of interesting data all in one place.

Re house prices between 2015 to 2025 my house type (detached) has gone up quite a lot over that period. So have semi detached houses. But terraced houses and flats haven't gone up much according to this data. The data for flats is particularly volatile in that prices went up around 2020-2022 but have declined since then.

I will use it if I move house in future as it's such an easy way to see everything in one place like crime rates, flood risk etc. So thanks again 😀