Interesting article on mortgage rates & the housing market:
If I look at the live rates on my screen, the market makers are clear in that two- year swap rates are below five per cent (4.74% to be accurate). To understand that, this does not mean that the rate in two years will be 4.74%. That is the average rate over the two-year period. While they might be wrong about the future, that’s the basis on which rates are currently being manufactured to be sold to the public, not what the current Bank of England (BOE) rate is.
So, if rates are not expected to drop until August (which is what they are saying), to achieve an average rate of 4.74%, rates will have to drop sharper at some point. Either way, the market makers are saying ‘they are falling’. It is only when something stronger comes from the BOE, (normally with their press office briefing material), that journalists will respond, that sends a strong message out, and hey presto, you have a buyer’s market again.
Is it sensible to mess around trying to time that market? No.
Let’s remember that two and five-year rates differ right now. Five-year rates are cheaper, which is called an inverted yield curve, a sure sign there is a threat of a recession. A threat of recession causes panic and more fear and potential paralysis again, when actually it’s good news for the buyer in terms of interest rates, as they have to fall to inject liquidity into the economy.
However, the important part here is the advice on whether or not to fix your rate, and for how long. Personally, I cannot see how the UK economy can deal with rates this high, which is what is echoed by the market with two-year fixed rates at 4.68%, variables at 4.59% and some remortgages at around 4.59%, all below the BOE base rate.
Mortgage rates and the housing market (msn.com)