6% mortgage rates; trouble a'ht Mill

[Twiglets1]

This is a new 6% mortgage rates thread as the last one is almost full.

Thanks to KievLoverTwo for suggesting the second part of the title to reflect all the squabbling these threads are causing. Which could be a thing of the past of course. But realistically, it won't be.

Happy to see so many mortgages starting with a 4 @cupcakesarelife

When you consider the title of this thread and the one before it which was also about mortgage rates being around 6% 😀

Crashy of course expected them to go way higher than 6% must be so disappointing for the HPC crew - no wonder they have to clutch at straws re Halifax going up significantly from 4.17 to 4.42% according to MoneySuperMarket 😂

Sigh. It’s not crystal ball gazing.

Look at the yield rates, then you can see why the banks are beginning to factor in raising once again. These current deals won’t remain at their current rates.

Some people seem to be getting excited over a "debt sale" yet again, rates are still WAY above the levels people were borrowing at before this rate hiking cycle began.

duh stating the obvious now Crashy

Well surely even less reason to get worked up over a "debt sale" which could be a blip in an upward trend for rates?

Not getting worked up about it just noting it’s nice to see fixed term mortgage rates relatively low these days ( historically speaking) with many starting with a 4

A couple of years ago they started with a 1, or even a zero though? 4 isn`t going to please people with large housing debts. The problem with going historical is that back in the days when mortgage rates hit double digits you could buy a house for 30k, the housing debt some people have now is going to be well pricey every month if we are starting with a 4?

There's quite a few good deals for first time buyers my mortgage broker put to me a deal for 4.69% I have a 5% deposit

Yes, they want to reel you in before prices drop too much. The lenders desperately need FTB to keep committing to the Ponzi, sorry market, or else their existing lending starts to look a bit wobbly as the value of the assets starts dropping.

I have a thread ongoing at the minute about a property I've put an offering on, but I'm really keen to buy soon before interest rates drop as I think House prices will start to increase again once interest rates drop even if it's only slightly they'll still increase and I don't want that.

What is going to make interest rates drop in your opinion? I think it will only be in response to a serious economic downturn, and in that scenario house prices will drop even faster.

I can believe this!!

It is very unlikely that house prices will start to increase again once interest rates drop. They have already dropped 2% of so and house prices have FALLEN. Since January the swap rates (see earlier comments from @XVGN and @Lightscribe) have risen. It is on these that mortgage rates are based, not just the BOE base rates.
It is likely that the BOE will cut rates later this year, maybe in May 24. It doesn't necessarily follow that the swap rates will fall a lot more than the current 4%. They may fall, they may rise depending on the situation at the time. So, if the BOE cuts, as generally expected at present, base rates are unlikely to go below 4% in 2024. As @CrashyTime says, the only scenario where we will see a dramatic cut is if 'something really breaks'. In that scenario, house prices are likely to fall fast.
The main thing to be aware of is that we are either already in a recession or on the brink of one (GDP figures out this week). Job losses and company insolvencies are being reported nearly every day = recession. This will get much worse through 2024. This will cause house prices to fall, regardless of base rates. Don't panic buy and regret it but think carefully through your options, your current accommodation, how secure your sector/ your partner's sector is, consider your incomes, how likely the banks are to lend to you as we enter a recession and then make your choice. Do lots of online research.

Exactly. 4% compared to 1.5% from a few years ago doesn't look so brilliant!
This argument makes no sense unless house prices: income levels revert to the historical ones.

It’s an election year and we have the exact same problem as the US. Our job figures are complete clap trap and will be massaged to appear fantastic (in the US it was government and gig worker jobs skewing data)

When stock markets get to highs, in skilled professions people retire, so theres a lack of experienced replacements and it’s difficult to recruit so there’s shortages all over for those professions.

On the other end of the spectrum 60% of the country is on government support. Universal credit eligibility means that there is a multitude of minimum wage part time jobs available (which are added to statistics but don’t add to productivity or reflect the overall health of the economy)

They will use that however to parrot the ‘soft landing’ narrative whilst businesses close left right and centre.

Are you Crashy Time from Moneysaving Forum?

Yep, looks like it reading back a bit. Still banging on about your prediction of a huge house price crash and annoying everyone?

'It’s an election year and we have the exact same problem as the US. Our job figures are complete clap trap and will be massaged to appear fantastic (in the US it was government and gig worker jobs skewing data)'

'They will use that however to parrot the ‘soft landing’ narrative whilst businesses close left right and centre'

Yes, 100%. The employment figures and others are being massaged to make politicians look less terrible. You really need to look beyond the headlines.

4% region id still very high. It’s not really moving the property market which is a big problem still

I do agree with this. The property market is wobbly. It’s not a safe area for a lot of people right now

They may do but it's hard to know, for every headline saying that prices are going down, there is another saying that they are rising. They tend to fall during recessions. Re: buying now, it depends on your situation - have you found something that you like that's affordable? Are you renting and how does the price compare with your rent?

With interest rates, it's also unknown. Economists etc keep saying they will fall and then delaying their predictions to a later date. They could fall more, they could rise from other factors such as another bout of inflation possibly fueled by conflict in Middle East, supply constraints due to shipping issues, climate change effects etc. Even economists can't predict the future.

Inflation in the year to January is expected to have risen to 4.1% when the figure is unveiled on Wednesday.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation rose to 4 per cent in December, and forecasters think it’s probable that it has gone up once again.
Capital Economics and Deutsche Bank Research both expect Wednesday’s figure, from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to be 4.1 per cent – more than double the Bank of England target of 2 per cent.

Sanjay Raja of Deutsche Bank said energy prices were partly behind the expected rise. Ofgem’s price cap, which sets the maximum most households can be charged per unit of energy, ticked up in January, and he said this would “result in a 5.1 per cent (average) boost to dual fuel bills”.

Ashley Webb of Capital Economics added: “A 5 per cent month-on-month rise in utility prices, due to the rise in the Ofgem price cap on 1 January, probably added 0.2 percentage points to the CPI inflation rate in January compared to December.

Longer term, experts also expect inflation to fall. Mr Webb said the figure would likely fall below 4 per cent in February and below 2 per cent in April.

I see Nationwide is raising mortgage rates - Sky News
https://news.sky.com/story/house-prices-uk-falls-gains-property-type-flats-semi-detached-sky-news-money-blog-13040934

I got my mortgage offer from Coventry Building Society- 4.37% fixed for 2 years. First time remortgaging so not sure what to do? Any advice.

My current 2.05% deal expires in July. It is going up £260 (not too bad after 5 years, could be worse).