When to move? Now or in a couple of years?

[Downtonbabby]

At the moment are people still moving or holding out a bit longer to see how the market goes? If so how much longer will you wait?

We currently live in a lovely but small ish 3 bedroom detached house that we are growing out of. We love it where we are, but I’d like to be able to give my boys (13.5 & almost 12) a bedroom each (they currently share and due to the size / layout of the room the only option is bunk beds).

We don’t have a huge budget for next house and could only realistically borrow around £80k-£100k extra as we want to still be able to pay for music lessons and clubs for the children. We are also keen to stay in our current area for schooling and catchments for DD (8) in a few years time for secondary (as she won’t be able to go to the same school as her brothers).

Just can’t decide if we should bite the bullet and look to move soon as we can just about afford a basic needs a little work 4 bed house, or wait another year or two, or possibly until September 2025 for secondary applications, as our current address would be well in catchment for DD.

We could continue to overpay our mortgage in that time and hopefully the market may be better. However I wonder if it would make much difference as we will also need to sell for less too, plus at 41 the years we can borrow for will continue to decline! I’m also aware as the boys continue to get older they will want their own space and it may be useful to have their own room as we head towards GCSEs in the next couple of years.

I now totally regret not moving 5 years ago when it was more affordable and we could have got more for our money! So I’m
keen not to move soon and then regret that decision if we could end up affording a bigger (so my work from home husband could get a study) / more finished house if we wait a bit longer!

Any advice?

Prices won't suddenly shoot up as in, if you miss day 1, 30, 180, 365, etc of the recovery, you'll be too late.

Agree.

If it's possible to move now, I would do it.

Would an extra £80-100k get you what you need taking into moving costs, estate agents, solicitors, stamp duty etc? It wouldn't round where I live.

Could you extend/convert. Or even put a decent, insulated summer house in your garden for your DH to use as a study in the day and one of the teenagers to use in the evening to study/chill out/have friends round etc?

I agree. Very unlikely that house prices will start to go up significantly in 2025. Where do people think the money will suddenly come from when we are (very likely) in the middle of a significant recession with rates probably still higher than the ZIRP era?

The only thing to be aware of is that credit is likely to continue to reduce and that only people who are low risk may be eligible for loans which would exacerbate the contraction in house prices too.

Other posters make a good point about the teenage son though.

We are in roughly the same price although our children have their own rooms.

We have decide to wait until 2025 to move now.

Move! Your house is for living in and enjoying. If you an afford the repayments who cares if the value goes down by 10% or so. So would the house you were selling. You;'re going to be in the next one for years, the property market will change during that time. It's about quality of life and your overall happiness with where you live.

I advised @Downtonbabby to time her move for 2024 rather than 2025 because at some point the housing market will slowly start to pick up. What has that got to do with you saying do we agree that it took 6 years for houses to bottom and not 2 or 3 years?

It is factual that at some point the housing market will start to pick up again. The risk to OP if they leave it to 2025 ( her question being "should we move now or in 2025?"), is that if they leave it for another 2 years, house prices may have risen again in her area. No one has a crystal ball to see into the future, but it is likely in my opinion that the market will start to pick up again once interest rates start falling. Not in a dramatic way, but more in a slow, steady way.

I do agree with what PP have said about the teenage boy and that being a good reason to move now rather than later.

The counter argument to that being the 5 year fix coming to an end next spring. That is likely to be a very low rate which it would be a shame to give up early. Hence I think put the house on the market in January with a view to potentially selling it in the Spring.

Only you can decide whether it is important for you to move to a bigger house, but trying to time the market is incredibly difficult. Who knows where interest rates are going, but it is unlikely that they will be going back down to 0.1% unless there is a sharp economic contraction. Back in 1987/88 there were other options available which meant that many were able to hold off their house purchase and wait. There are now few options for families looking for somewhere to live, unless they rent (and pay someone else's mortgage), or are in such substantial housing need that they will be housed by a housing association, but you really need to be on the verge of homelessness for that.

The 1980s were also a period of high unemployment, which didn't help support high house prices. Today we have high employment (or so we are told) so will need a recession with mass job losses to see the falls we saw in the early 90s. My view is that if you need to move into a bigger house because you need more space for your growing family, then move and don't worry about housing as an investment but make sure you can afford your mortgage. You are investing in your growing family in this extremely imperfect housing market, and you need to do whatever is right for you.

'I advised @Downtonbabbyto time her move for 2024 rather than 2025 because at some point the housing market willslowlystart to pick up. What has that got to do with you saying do we agree that it took 6 years for houses to bottom and not 2 or 3 years?

It is factual that at some point the housing market will start to pick up again. The risk to OP if they leave it to 2025 ( her question being "should we move now or in 2025?"), is that if they leave it for another 2 years, house prices may have risen again in her area. No one has a crystal ball to see into the future, but it is likely in my opinion that the market will start to pick up again once interest rates start falling. Not in a dramatic way, but more in a slow, steady way.'

@XVGN is saying that you have contradicted yourself by saying that it has historically taken 5/6 years for the market to start to rise again and, at the same time suggesting that house prices are likely to start rising again in 2025 and that the OP might miss out. The falls only started second half of 2022 so we have several years to go if one assumes that this time will follow previous patterns. Even if you are 100% correct, small rises of 2 or 3% a year don't make a significant difference to most people.
It's not factual to suggest that at some point the housing market will start to pick up. It's based on assumption based on what has happened previously, not facts. It's possible but there needs to be some kind of trigger for this eg deregulation of credit (90s) / ZIRP and QE (post GFC). Those things have already happened and it won't be easy to repeat them in an inflationary environment.

A housing cycle doesn’t follow the exact same path each time though. If it did it would be so easy to predict exactly when to sell and when to buy.

If you don’t think the housing market will ever pick up then ok. You’re entitled to your opinion. Though I expect you will now say something to the effect that it’s not your opinion.

'A housing cycle doesn’t follow the exact same path each time though. If it did it would be so easy to predict exactly when to sell and when to buy.

If you don’t think the housing market will ever pick up then ok. You’re entitled to your opinion. Though I expect you will now say something to the effect that it’s not your opinion.'

Exactly. One can't assume that it will follow the same path as before, exactly what I have been saying. As you know from several other threads, I am bearish on the UK economy, including the housing market so I don't expect the market to pick up in 2025. As far as making exact predictions on interest rates and timings, I don't do that because no one can do this with accuracy, certainly not me. Clearly, you are far more bullish and expect things to pick up in 2025. You are entitled to your opinion too.

Changing the goal posts again @rainingsnoring ? First you say it’s not factual for me to suggest that at some point the housing market will pick up. Now you’re saying you don’t expect the market to pick up in 2025.

Are you saying that you DO expect the market to pick up at some point in the future beyond 2025?

Also, if I could please get the six winning lottery numbers for Saturday when you are staring into that crystal ball of yours @rainingsnoring
Nobody is able to predict exact years. Never mind months of when the market will go up and down unless somebody is actually orchestrating a war.

No, I haven't said any of that. I think you must be struggling to comprehend or perhaps you just like arguing.

Someone else who struggles with comprehension. Straight from my post above:

'As far as making exact predictions on interest rates and timings, I don't do that because no one can do this with accuracy, certainly not me.'

Lol, sure I’m the one who likes arguing