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Politics

Markets. Why they are important.

131 replies

Alouiseg · 11/05/2010 10:43

I've posted this elsewhere on a different thread but it's cropping up all over the place.

In all capitalist and free market democracies the government is kept in check by the bond market. When society requires new hospitals, schools, roads or an increase in its social welfare payments then the bond market decides whether and by how much they have to available to spend.

When you vote Labour because they will provide greater amounts in your benefits each month, or promise pay hikes for your school teachers and nurses or even fix the potholes in the roads they raise the money borrowing from the bond market, which is comprised of worldwide and domestic investors, banks, hedge funds, speculators and traders. If this collective group, known as the bond market decide that the government is spending beyond its means, or continually making poor decisions then it insists on receiving a larger return on its investment to compensate for the increased risk of default.

In the case of Greece, who were charged 15% interest on their Drachma borrowings to then be allowed to borrow at the German rate of 4% when they adopted the Euro, they did not re finance their debt and borrow to invest wisely they started a spending binge to such an extent that the country is now unable to borrow enough money to meet its due obligations without the joint aid of a $960'000'000'000 bailout from the USA, UK (yes its costing us £15'000'000'000) and Europe.

The UK, under "New" Labour have borrowed more than Greece. It is only the fact that we are not in the Euro and still control our own currency and interest rates and its is still likely that the fiscally prudent Conservatives will gain power that the yield charged to our government borrowings has remained fairly low albeit has risen significantly since the hung parliament.

If Labour retain power then it is extremely likely that the bond market vigilantes will punish this by demanding a much higher yield on our enormous New Labour borrowings. We currently pay in excess of £60'000'000'000 in interest alone which would triple if we were on a par with Greece. Sterling, which already fell 1.50 points against the dollar and 0.90 points against the Euro merely because Gordon Brown resigned making it more likely that Clegg could deal with Labour, would collapse in an inflation fueling rout. Imagine if Labour retained power... £1 to $1 and £1 to E0.50 ? Inflation inflation inflation.

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BeenBeta · 12/05/2010 13:27

Which market is the chart of?

Alouiseg · 12/05/2010 14:10

Cable

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Beachcomber · 12/05/2010 15:52

Which reminds me, I wonder how the markets will react if Vince Cable is allowed to do what he intends.

www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/12/banks-fear-shakeup-conservative-lib-dem

BeenBeta · 12/05/2010 16:11

Bank shares will fall in value.

The traditional clearing bank operations (which rely on Bank of England support and regulation) do need separating from Investment banking. No way the tax payer should be bailing out investment banks.

I used to work as a trader in a commodity firm in the City and still do it on my own account for a living and the idea that taxpayers would bail me out woudl be bonkers but wat I do is no different from an invesment bank.

Does anyone remember Barings after Nick Leeson? The Bank of England shut them down over a weekend and shareholders lost their investment and employees lost their jobs. That is how capialism should work. Same should have happened last year when banks got into a mess with only the clearing bank parts saved.

Personally, I think that will be very good for the City and the UK to split up the banks. Putting the risk back on the investment bankers who are taking the ridiculous risks and huge bonuses.

BeenBeta · 12/05/2010 16:14

The cost of capital to the investment banks would rise and a lot of the leveraged high risk trading they do woudl also automatically stop as it woudl no longer be profitable.

Alouiseg · 12/05/2010 16:30

Totally agree BeenBeta

The Glass?Steagall Act probably needs to be looked at again.

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