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So.... all you political pundit types...

56 replies

OrmRenewed · 10/05/2010 20:58

tell me what's happening. Because I haven't a clue.

GB is a gonner. Clegg is two-timing the tories.

Please elucidate for the hard of thinking.

OP posts:
claig · 11/05/2010 08:09

snowlady, agree about Teather. The more I see her, the more I realise how fantastic she is. She could single-handedly make a Tory coalition government popular. She is a shining star and I hope the bigwigs can see that. I missed out Laws, he is great too. I am keeping my fingers crossed for a deal with the Tories. In the early days I didn't like Gove, but I now realise how very clever he is, he has not been braying and is diplomatic and conciliatory. I hope the Tories can make a fair deal with the LibDems. I still think it will happen.

scaryteacher · 11/05/2010 08:35

If it is a Lib-Lab stitch up, then Clegg and the LibDems better watch out as Labour will not honour any promises made once they are in power.

Introducing a major change like PR without explaining it to the electorate, or putting it to a referendum is unwise; as was signing up to Lisbon and therefore having to bail out Greece.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/05/2010 08:39

I might be confused on the greece issue - last time I heard, we were saying that as we are not in the Euro, its down to those who are to bail this one out.

did I get that wrong? theres so much to keep up with at the moment!

100x is exactly write in saying that what is going on at the moment is negotiating. I would expect nothing less under the circumstances.

claig · 11/05/2010 08:48

Just heard Gideon and Paddy Ashdown on the radio 4 Today programme. Osborne is very good and is impressive. He is very clever and very diplomatic. If you don't look at him, he makes a lot of sense. Paddy was going all out to show tha advantages of a Labour//LibDem pact. On first hearing, it sounds like that is what he will advise the LibDem party. But thinking about if further, I think Paddy was just bluffing, putting last minute pressure on the Tories to make a better deal. I think it's all over now and the Tories/LibDems will make a deal, and that is in fact what Paddy will secretly be recommending whatever he says in public. I think it is great news for the country. Gove, Osborne and the Tories all seem very constructive and conciliatory, it shows that they can all compromise for the sake of the national interest. I think we are entering a new era in politics, and the LibDems are on an upward curve. The spin and lies of the past will be turfed in the dustbin, we are now in a crisis and spin won't solve it. The only sticking point that Paddy saw with the Tories was the fact that they are a rabid anti-Europe party. But I think that this is wrong. I am not a fan of big EU government, but I think the Tories only pretend they are so much against Europe, they always do the opposite. So Europe won't really be an issue.
I don't understand all of the different PR systems. Everybody says that AV is crap. But I think that you reach a journey's end one step at a time, not in one big jump. It may be a good strategy to first go for a crap AV. If the public votes for it, then their next step could be for something better. The only danger is that AV is so crap that the public doesn't vote for it at all.

fembear · 11/05/2010 08:55

"The only danger is that AV is so crap that the public doesn't vote for it at all."

That's a danger? I am so looking forward to the LibDems doing deals to get their referendum on changing the voting system ... and the public saying NO! That would be so funny.

HumphreyCobbler · 11/05/2010 08:57

people keep saying that the public voted for electoral reform. I am genuinely confused by this. 76% (?) voted for parties that did not included electoral reform in their manifesto.

How can this be? Someone help me understand.

claig · 11/05/2010 08:58

yes fembear that may be what the Tories really want to happen and this AV thing is a trap for the LibDems. But I personally want a proper PR system where everybody's vote really counts, whatever party they vote for and that includes all of the smaller parties. I think it is unacceptable to call it a democracy and then to disenfranchise huge numbers of people whilst the leading parties carry on with the stitch-ups of the past.

claig · 11/05/2010 09:02

HumphreyCobbler, I think it is because the public don't vote on just one issue, so there is no way of knowing what the public really want on PR. That's why we have to ask the public in a referendum. Voting is at the core of democracy, and it has to be sorted out to make democracy real.

HumphreyCobbler · 11/05/2010 09:04

I agree with you on that.

But people keep saying the public voted for electoral reform. I can't see how that is true.

fembear · 11/05/2010 09:06

Tell you what, Claig, arrange for me to be PM and I'll sort it for you. Keep the FPTP, MP-represents-constituency for the Commons and put the percentage-of-votes-won result in the Lords. Simples.

claig · 11/05/2010 09:07

yes you're right. They are bending the facts to suit their case. I have also heard the other side saying that they didn't vote for PR because the LibDems didn't get a majority. They are all specious arguments that only serve the interests of the different sides.

claig · 11/05/2010 09:09

fembear, but the Lords is paper tiger compared to the Commons, where the real power is. Let's practise what we preach, and give real power to the people and let the people decide.

HumphreyCobbler · 11/05/2010 09:09

thank you

you make me feel like I am NOT actually going mad

claig · 11/05/2010 09:12

it will all be over soon, and we can all join together in berating the new government, whoever they are

HumphreyCobbler · 11/05/2010 09:14

this is why I am finding the Lib Dem position quite funny actually

they were so sanctimonious when in opposition, now they have to actually DO something they are finding that all political choices are hard ones

claig · 11/05/2010 09:18

yes it is easy to say things when there is no chance of them being implemented. I am happy that the LibDems are now sitting at the real table and seeing how things really work. It is good for the country.

FrakkedUpTheElection · 11/05/2010 12:06

You can make the numbers stack up any way you like. I could 'prove' almost anything from this election result. It's a speculator's heaven.

The Lib Dems are hovering between making it big and total obliteration. For the moment I'm erring of the side of the Tories and making it because Labour won't do them any favours.

The danger of making a half-arsed attempt on electoral reform is that AV is still majoritarian, it discriminates against smaller parties even more than FPTP, people won't want too much change and the AV+ proposed by Labour's committee in '98 currently isn't used anywhere....

In other words it's so crap it's dangerous.

claig · 11/05/2010 12:09

yes you're probably right. I don't understand all these different PR systems. I fear that AV may be so crap that the public won't even vote for it. Then we'll be stuck as we are and never get any PR, which is a shame.

Chil1234 · 11/05/2010 12:12

The BBC has quite a simple explanation of different voting systems here It also extrapolates the 2010 voting patterns to see what the result would look like with the different systems in place

Chil1234 · 11/05/2010 12:15

Should add that it doesn't take tactical voting into account. Assumes people voted for the candidate they wanted....

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/05/2010 12:16

[[ another explanation) links on left of page. (tis probably a bit biased as its the electoral reform society)

alienbump · 11/05/2010 12:26

But the Labour Party manifesto does state that they would hold a referendum on the introduction of Alternative Voting by Oct 2011. I presume that's where the 70+% figure comes from.


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TheBride · 11/05/2010 12:27

I think the LD's major problem (and the reason more people dont vote for them) is that they have no experience in government. It's easy to make nice promises from the opposition benches.We dont know what they'd really be like running the country. At least the other 2 parties are known quantities (Tories less so as havent been in power for so long).

Therefore if I were Nick (and who's to say I'm not..........) my priority would be to prove that the LD's can be effective in government.

So, I've got two choices. I could strike a deal with Dave, who, to be fair, has not screwed me over before, but who I'm not that aligned with. However, the major advantage is that I dont need my whole party to support the Cons on everything for the Cons to get a majority.

If, on the other hand, I form a pact with Lab, I'd better make sure I've got a damn good whip because if my MP's rebel against key bills like the finance bill, I look irresponsible and as though I'm putting party before the key priority of sorting out the deficit.Plus labour screwed me on PR last time. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me, and all that.

I'd go with the Cons, lose my cabinet cherry, get some respect for sorting out the economy, get a ref on PR.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/05/2010 12:37


claig · 11/05/2010 13:09

thanks Chil1234 and OhYouBadBadKitten
great links, I will try to get my head round that.

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