What do you think will happen in RUK countries, if Reform wins at the next general election?

[Therapee]

I live in Scotland, and I'm wondering if a Reform win would make independence more likely.

There is little chance of independence in Scotland. The country is more conservative than it likes to think it is.

For a referendum to go the way of independence you need polls to be around 60% in favour. History tells us at least 5% of people will vote for the status quo at the last minute because of the fear of change.

Even after the years of Conservative austerity and the disaster of Liz Truss there was still no sign of a big majority in any opinion poll for independence.

Besides which there is zero chance a Reform government would agree to any such referendum. More likely they will instead abolish the Welsh and Scottish parliaments and revert devolved powers back to Westminster.

Has Reform given any speeches about policy towards Wales or Scotland? I haven't noticed any words in favour or against. It's probably low on their to do list.
Presumably they want to do well in the May elections in Wales and Scotland as a priority which will put pressure on Labour in Wales and SNP & Labour in Scotland.
If ReformUK take many seats in Scots Assembly then the noise for independence will increase but will the sentiment support change on that scale?
@Aaron95 is probably right.

Thanks for the thoughts! I hadn't even considered the possibility of devolved powers bring rescinded. I kind of assumed Reform would be the sort of party to enable independence (partly so as to concentrate on English voters, but also because they seem to err towards "disruption").

Labour have been worse than sh ite and Conservatives were horrendous too, maybe they all need a boot up the proverbial, so that they listen to the voters. Am disillusioned with a the political parties and how they walk away after even one term with golden plated pensions.

@JoyintheMorning There haven't been any specific annuoncements about devolution. Farage has refused to rule out scrapping the Scottish parliament on a few occasions after various SNP people have disagreed with his desire to leave the EHCR. Some of their candidates gave some pro Welsh parliament lines at the recent Welsh by-election but I don't think they have any actual policy on this sort of thing yet. They strike me as a very reactive party so if one or both parliaments resisted leaving the EHCR or osmething they may well just lash out and get rid. I may be wrong.

They will NOT abolish Stormont, Holyrood nor the Senedd.

Devolution is here forever.

Think of the likely reaction in (Northern) Ireland should Westminster under a Reform PM attempt this. The army would be on the streets again with English soldiers bearing the brunt.

As for independence, I agree. Very unlikely now though Nov/Dec polls had 56-58% Scots voters wanting independence should Farage become PM.

Most on here are very anti-SNP but I observe that someone, somewhere & in sufficient numbers are consistently voting for them such that Scotland has had an SNP FM for 14 odd years.

PS Binning "that" verse of some versions of GSTK might be a start to unionism becoming a tad more popular up here. I sit down if that verse is ever sung.

Politicians in NI are readying themselves to enact the referendum for a United Ireland promised in the GFA.

Reform are going to do really well in the Scottish elections.

will b interesting to see what impact that has.

SNP way ahead of them all.

Reform have split the Scottish Unionist vote like the DUP/UUP/TUV/PUP have done to the Unionist vote in NI.

The problem for Scottish Unionists is none of the established Unionist parties has proven capable of scraping beyond the 20-25% of the vote mark, meaning that at best they end up with a paltry number of Constituency MSP's supplemented by a sprinkling of Regional List. Along comes Reform diluting the approx 50% the Unionists attract even further, so before you know it you have an "official" Scottish opposition with around 20 MSP's maximum, a good number of those not even directly elected.

The Tories are going to take an absolute hiding in May, and it really wouldn't surprise me if Labour also goes backwards in actual MSP numbers. So it's entirely plausible that rather than an opposition with 28 MSP's, we end up with a slightly different shade of official opposition but with around 20-25 MSP's.

Until the constitutional issue is resolved there is no prospect whatsoever of Unionist hegemony in Holyrood because they are chasing 50% of the electorate between themselves. Either they disband (well not that they can in actual fact, since the "Scottish" part is simply branding and they are the defacto Westminster parties) and form a "grand party of unionism" to challenge the SNP, or they accept the game is up and at least adopt a position of neutrality on the matter of Independence.

I get the impression there are a number of Reform supporters/voters out of frustration who don’t air their stance.
It would be interesting to see the impact. I’ll admit I don’t really care if Scotland gain independence.

I'm a bit worried about the "shy" Reform voters in Scotland... I suspect with the list vote they'll get more MSPs than we think and then it will be carnage.

I was starting to think we might see independance but with the whole Trump/spheres of influence/WW3 worries I think people will be reluctant (and if there was a referendum the 'no' brigade would focus on driving that fear factor...

I don’t think Reform will win the next election by themselves, but might form part of a coalition.

Reform are a pro UK party not pro England party. They are polling high in Scotland and Wales.

Higher than the "Westminster Branch Parties" but way lower than the SNP.

https://www.centreforcities.org/publication/centralisation-nation/

The above is my problem with the UK as is. Unfair. Unjust. Undemocratic.

The election in May will certainty be interesting!

Latest Holyrood May 2026 voting intentions poll 13-16 Jan 2026 for Sunday Times courtesy Norstat:

Constituency Vote:
35 SNP
19 Labour
17 Reform
11 Cons

Regional List:
29 SNP
17 Labour
16 Reform
12 Cons