I've recently had the opportunity to review the latest statistics on long-term international migration, published just days ago by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The findings are quite striking, and they challenge the common perception that asylum seekers constitute only a small fraction of immigration to the UK.
Key statistics that caught my attention include:
• The net migration figure from 2021 to 2024 stands at 11 million, with 1.2 million of these individuals being asylum seekers, including those who arrived by small boats. This represents 10% of the total net migration figure.
• 13% of those granted settled status in 2023 and 2024 did so through the asylum route. Furthermore, these individuals are typically eligible to apply for citizenship after just one year.
These numbers suggest that asylum seekers make up a more significant proportion of immigration than is often assumed. It's also worth considering that not all visa holders, particularly those on work visas, may be interested in pursuing citizenship, as they sort after settlement for the freedom to change employers without being tied to their sponsor. However, refugees, on the other hand, are highly likely to take up citizenship, with nearly 100% doing so.
As a result, it's estimated that 1-2 in every 10 new UK citizens will be eligible to access social housing, pensions, and Universal Credit immediately. Compared to individuals on work or study visas, asylum seekers do represent a significant financial burden on the government, especially given the current funding challenges.
I hope that the forthcoming the white paper, will address the issue of refugee citizenships and consider applying any changes retrospectively. However, I'm unsure whether such measures should also apply to work and study visas. Many highly capable individuals hold these visas but may not yet qualify for the "Global Talent T1 visa" or may have been deterred from applying due to the expensive and often subjective application process.
These talented individuals remain highly competitive and in demand globally, and they have the potential to drive growth in the UK economy while keeping UK research competitive on the world stage. I am concerned that any unfavourable changes to the visa system could inadvertently drive these talent away.