And then there were three... Tory Party leadership contenders

[Westfacing]

What a long-drawn out process.

Down to Cleverly, Jenrick and Badenoch - not much of a choice really!

Yes I've just seen a suggestion on Twitter that some of Jenricks support was "lent" to Cleverly to oust TT.

What a mess. I'm now hoping KB wins purely because I think PMQ might be marginally more interesting.

There are suggestions his team thought it was in the bag and lent votes to Jenrick as they would have preferred to face him rather than Badenoch in the members' vote. If that is true, it was incredibly stupid given how few MPs the Conservatives have.

I am disappointed but not surprised that the Conservatives are going to elect someone from the right of the party. Labour tend to lurch to the left after losing power and the Tories tend to lurch to the right. In both cases, a return to power generally only happens when they remember that elections are won from the centre and select a leader who can capture the centre ground.

I think the conservative MPs have lost their minds. This is their Corbyn moment and they're now completely screwed for the next 5 years.

I'm not a conservative fan, but bloody hell, we need an effective opposition.

I'm inclined to agree with the suggestion that Cleverly was lent votes to oust TT because, from what I remember, he surprisingly came out top yesterday with more than expected votes.

I don't think it was that much of a surprise since Cleverly clearly performed much better than the other candidates at the party conference, as a result of which the bookies had made him favourite. However, I understand a senior Tory is saying that Cleverly's team blundered by lending votes to Jenrick. If that is true, it was a huge mistake.

The membership will go with Badenoch given that choice. I think the parliamentary party shot themselves in the foot going with Cleverly rather than Tugendhat as the moderate option, and now they're gamble has pushed it to a choice between the two most despicable options available.

Does anyone think that either will still be leader come the next election?

A lunatic choice; says they have given up on any moderate centre vote at all.

The Tory membership chose Liz Truss. But this contest seems guaranteed to produce a loser leader whatever horse they back.

Can't see Badenoch lasting more than a year. She's far too thin-skinned, easily riled, and can't avoid getting drawn into pointless sideshow stuff. Jenrick is hideous but far more calculating, so I can see him surviving a bit longer.

They're not winning an election with either of them as leader though. I think this could well precipitate a merger with Reform.

Labour are in a different place after only a few months

I wouldn’t bank on anything for five years

Especially given what will change over that time

Surely Jenrick is too vulnerable due to his dodgy dealings in the past?

Baiting Badenoch will become a parliamentary pastime, because, as you say, she's too thin skinned and far too ready to rise to the bait.

This. And she can start a fight in an empty room. The main thing though is that she’s inherently unlikeable.

Surely Jenrick is too vulnerable due to his dodgy dealings in the past?

You'd think so, but large scale theft and corruption appears to be viewed as a virtue these days by the Tory party, and it hasn't prevented him getting this far.

I don't believe Starmer would really have any appetite for getting involved in a squabble about personal business dealings/money/grifting himself either. It's normally the Labour MP's who come out of that sort of thing looking worse than their Tory counterparts.

The Conservative Party is entering its Jeremy Corbyn era. A few years languishing on its extreme fringe they they'll probably come back with someone more centrist.

If Starmer’s rating keeps going down, more people will want someone who can get him to actually answer stuff.

Not on here as still support but generally

You think so? More than Starmer?

I agree he’s less combative than Badenoch but he’s got a very thin skin - his petulance has shown through very early - and he’s already very widely disliked. He’s also the subject of mockery, which is the really difficult thing to come back from, especially as his brand was the projection of piety.

Yes agree on both

You’ve articulated it well

The problem is, all the moderate Tories ran a mile at the 2019 election because they saw the writing on the wall. The "centrists" are thin on the ground now as well, and the barking mad right wing is now pretty much in control of the party.

I agree with you that they aren't going to be in government any time soon, but I think they have a bit to go before they evolve to the point where there is any prospect of a centrist leader being viable. Perhaps one or two more right-wing nutters beyond this one, a merger with Reform, a split, and so on, before they regain their senses and realise that the likes of Badenoch and Jenrick are electoral millstones irrespective of what their geriatric membership thinks.

What an almighty fuck up on the part of the Tory party. Yet again.

It seems that they have learnt nothing from the mistakes of the previous years. Have they already forgotten?

Great news for Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens though. The Tories can carry on fighting with Reform for the far right section of the electorate. Meanwhile, they will make themselves unelectable for the predominantly centrist majority of voters, so it will be left to the left leaning parties to fight over their votes.

The country does need a credible and functional opposition. As the Tory party seems hell bent on self destruction, we'd better hope that Ed Davey and the Libdems are ready to step up!

The main thing to note is that Badenoch is not very popular with the general public that she would need to covet to win. So she is less popular than Boris Johnson, Sunak or even Cleverly. It really depends whether she is a leader who picks up votes. My instinct on that is no, or at least, she will not pick up those wet Tory voters who have gone Lib Dem.

Jenrick doesn’t even register with the general public so who knows? But it’s a bad choice

As Starmer’s popularity goes down there will be more people demanding he’s held to account

I think this is probably true, but moderate Labour voters aren't going to flock to a very right wing Tory party. I think it's likely that the Lib Dems will do very well out of it. Which I would be fine with.

This seems logical, but I'd suggest his popularity is about as poor right now as it's possible to get, and there is still the thick end of five years to go before he has to call an election.

I think it's become apparent Labour had a plan for winning the election but no real plan for what to do in government, but I wouldn't bank on Starmer's own approval continuing to plunge from here on in. Chances are this is actually the low-point of his first term, because even Labour aren't stupid enough to think they can just wing it for five years and then win an election.

That’s my reading too. I can see them being the official opposition after another election.

Moderate anyone isn’t going to be attracted. The Tory membership (elderly and right wing) is currently not in sync with why they lost. The age at which people decide to vote Conservative is going up and up.

Reform will do pretty well out of it. Badenoch won’t be extreme enough for them; the Tories risk being “Diet Reform”.

Maybe. It probably depends on growth. Without it even basic pledges such as defence spending can’t be met.

And above inflation demands on public sector pay will be harder

I mean off here you can see many people really dislike him. I doubt he’ll be replaced though.