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I do not believe intelligence forces knew nothing.

17 replies

TooBigForMyBoots · 09/10/2023 01:25

Hamas contains and is under surveillance of many intelligence agencies. American, Egyptian, Lebanese, British, South African, Russian, Iranian and others as well as Israeli. Recording devices are tinier and more easily hidden than ever before. Gaza is a small cramped space.

I do not believe that no one outside Hamas knew this was coming.

My heart aches for everyone suffering this.

OP posts:
etmoietmoietmoi · 09/10/2023 01:52

Well obviously Iran knew.

asterel · 09/10/2023 02:16

Ah, great - a bit of false flag chat is always nice when you’ve been seeing raped and murdered girls all over social media.

Why not turn it into a bit of conspiracy theory speculation? That’s surely quite fun and not at all tasteless.

Coffeaddict · 09/10/2023 02:18

etmoietmoietmoi · 09/10/2023 01:52

Well obviously Iran knew.

This. They have openly admitted to funding it

Californiabound · 09/10/2023 02:21

asterel · 09/10/2023 02:16

Ah, great - a bit of false flag chat is always nice when you’ve been seeing raped and murdered girls all over social media.

Why not turn it into a bit of conspiracy theory speculation? That’s surely quite fun and not at all tasteless.

Agree, God knows what will come of it. Nothing good I imagine. Seriously Astrel is nobody supposed to use their brain? Women and children have been dying for a long time in that region, also do Men's deaths not count for anything?

Californiabound · 09/10/2023 02:23

Do you think false flags never happen?

asterel · 09/10/2023 02:33

Californiabound · 09/10/2023 02:23

Do you think false flags never happen?

I think you’re a credulous idiot for giving any credence to conspiracism, yes.

DreamTheMoors · 09/10/2023 02:45

TooBigForMyBoots · 09/10/2023 01:25

Hamas contains and is under surveillance of many intelligence agencies. American, Egyptian, Lebanese, British, South African, Russian, Iranian and others as well as Israeli. Recording devices are tinier and more easily hidden than ever before. Gaza is a small cramped space.

I do not believe that no one outside Hamas knew this was coming.

My heart aches for everyone suffering this.

So what you’re saying, @TooBigForMyBootsis that those allies of Israel knew about the attack beforehand and just let it happen without warning Israel? The U.K. is an ALLY to Israel. So is the U.S. But sure - they knew about a terrorist attack and just shut up about it.

Well, that’s definitely rational. /s

Iran knew. Russia probably did too.
But do go on. I’m waiting for you to say that the moon is made from green cheese.

DownNative · 09/10/2023 09:36

Apply the expanded Hanlon's Razor:

"Never attribute to bad intentions (e.g., malice or self-interest) that which is adequately explained by other causes (e.g., stupidity, ignorance, carelessness, incompetence, or lack of information)."

People commonly misunderstand the world of intelligence. Often, the assumption is that intelligence is always of high quality - wrong, it greatly varies from detailed information to very vague information. The other common assumption is that if an attack gets through, its deliberately allowed to happen which doesn't make much sense.

Often, contextual information is left out lest it undermine the conspiracy that intelligence allowed something to happen or to show they're incompetent. Other explanations exist such as incorrect information supplied, information not passed along the security chain, situations suddenly changed so intelligence agencies had to change plans last minute and many more possible explanations.

Intelligence and security failures can have multiple explanations as shown by the US enquiry into 9/11.

DownNative · 09/10/2023 09:43

Report into US intelligence failures here:

https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/archive/special/0506/chapter5.htm

It may provide insight into the Israeli failures. It doesn't mean its an automatic Israeli false flag or anything like that - that kind of conspiracy theory would need proper evidence, not speculation and speculation inevitably benefits terrorist groups as they seek to undermine public confidence in States' intelligence agencies.

Special Report: A Review of the FBI's Handling of Intelligence Information Prior to the September 11 Attacks

https://oig.justice.gov/sites/default/files/archive/special/0506/chapter5.htm

DownNative · 09/10/2023 10:53

The following is an excellent point most people don't understand about intelligence:

"In fact, experts say the sheer quantity of intelligence that Israel collects on Hamas, as well as the group’s constant activity and organizing, may have played a role in obscuring plans for this particular attack amid the endless barrage of potentially credible threats."

And:

"“Intelligence in an environment like Israel isn't finding a needle in a haystack—it's finding the needle that will hurt you in a pile of needles,” Williams says. “Given the number of Hamas members involved in the invasion, it's not plausible to me that Israel missed every human intelligence reflection of the planning. But I feel confident that there are always Hamas operatives talking about credible plans to attack the IDF. So Israel can't respond with force to every threat, even every credible one. They'd be at a heightened state of alert or actively engaged all the time, and that's probably actually worse for security.”

  • Jake Williams, a former US National Security Agency hacker and current faculty member at the Institute for Applied Network Security

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/israel-hamas-war-surveillance

Israel's Failure to Stop the Hamas Attack Shows the Danger of Too Much Surveillance

Hundreds dead, thousands wounded—Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel shows the limits of even the most advanced and invasive surveillance dragnets as full-scale war erupts.

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/israel-hamas-war-surveillance

Dymaxion · 09/10/2023 13:38

That's a good article @DownNative . It does explain the 'how could this happen' which is something I struggled to understand.

dubsie · 09/10/2023 20:56

Israel is not innocent, they put in place the conditions for this attack. It's response will not be proportionate and will simply add more violence and death.

Do I support Hamas or it's actions ...I do not but I believe that putting a race in a prison, limiting water, food and medicine is utterly disgusting and as always people will fight back and become more ruthless and desperate.

I can't honestly see how this is going to end

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 10/10/2023 07:58

Hamas are now saying only a few top commanders knew about the attacks.

I think they missed a trick here. Israel’s intelligence and politician would have been under a lot more pressure had Hamas said the raid was widely known.

DownNative · 10/10/2023 08:46

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 10/10/2023 07:58

Hamas are now saying only a few top commanders knew about the attacks.

I think they missed a trick here. Israel’s intelligence and politician would have been under a lot more pressure had Hamas said the raid was widely known.

On the contrary, Hamas is basically signalling that their leadership has NOT been infiltrated to the highest levels.

That's the real message and real story there!

If any intelligence agency has the leadership of a terrorist group infiltrated, they have more chance of stopping OR countering terrorist operations.

It's difficult to infiltrate leadership positions of terrorist groups, but can be done. Usually over years.

I'd expect the conflict to go on for quite a long time at this rate. Hamas are nowhere near being ideologically defeated like many other terrorist groups before them around the world.

DownNative · 10/10/2023 22:54

"The question everyone’s asking is, what role did Iran play? We don’t know. Iran has clearly been a supporter of Hamas financially, materially and politically. But we don’t know the extent to which Iran was involved in the logistical operational part of this training, or what kind of logistical support (it offered the October 7 operation).

I don’t think anyone knows that. Every (country’s) intelligence was caught completely unaware of this, including and especially the Israelis."

  • Khaled Elgindy, senior fellow at the DC-based Middle East Institute where he directs the program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs.
DownNative · 17/10/2023 09:14

What we know is that Egypt gave a warning of something that wasn't especially clear of the nature of potential attack:

"We (Egypt) have warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity

www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67082047

And:

"We know that Egypt has warned the Israelis three days prior that an event like this could happen," Mr McCaul told reporters following a closed-door intelligence briefing on Wednesday for lawmakers about the Middle East crisis, according to AFP news agency.

"I don't want to get too much into classified, but a warning was given," the Texas Republican added. "I think the question was at what level."

So, the threat level really wasn't clear. Israeli security services receive a LOT of reports of threats, but many of them aren't immediate threats. The challenge is always sorting out actual threats from perceived threats.

Apply the expanded Hanlon's Razor:

"Never attribute to bad intentions (e.g., malice or self-interest) that which is adequately explained by other causes (e.g., stupidity, ignorance, carelessness, incompetence, or lack of information)."

People commonly misunderstand the world of intelligence. Often, the assumption is that intelligence is always of high quality - wrong, it greatly varies from detailed information to very vague information. The other common assumption is that if an attack gets through, its deliberately allowed to happen which doesn't make much sense.

Often, contextual information is left out lest it undermine the conspiracy that intelligence allowed something to happen or to show they're incompetent. Other explanations exist such as incorrect information supplied, information not passed along the security chain, situations suddenly changed so intelligence agencies had to change plans last minute and many more possible explanations.

Intelligence and security failures can have multiple explanations as shown by the US enquiry into 9/11.

The following is an excellent point most people don't understand about intelligence:

"In fact, experts say the sheer quantity of intelligence that Israel collects on Hamas, as well as the group’s constant activity and organizing, may have played a role in obscuring plans for this particular attack amid the endless barrage of potentially credible threats."

And:

"“Intelligence in an environment like Israel isn't finding a needle in a haystack—it's finding the needle that will hurt you in a pile of needles,” Williams says. “Given the number of Hamas members involved in the invasion, it's not plausible to me that Israel missed every human intelligence reflection of the planning. But I feel confident that there are always Hamas operatives talking about credible plans to attack the IDF. So Israel can't respond with force to every threat, even every credible one. They'd be at a heightened state of alert or actively engaged all the time, and that's probably actually worse for security."

  • Jake Williams, a former US National Security Agency hacker and current faculty member at the Institute for Applied Network Security

"The question everyone’s asking is, what role did Iran play? We don’t know. Iran has clearly been a supporter of Hamas financially, materially and politically. But we don’t know the extent to which Iran was involved in the logistical operational part of this training, or what kind of logistical support (it offered the October 7 operation).

I don’t think anyone knows that. Every (country’s) intelligence was caught completely unaware of this, including and especially the Israelis."

• Khaled Elgindy, senior fellow at the DC-based Middle East Institute where he directs the program on Palestine and Israeli-Palestinian Affairs.

On top of that, see the attachment where Hamas boasts they fooled Israel and the West into thinking they were busy governing Gaza Strip.

The lesson learned here is that receiving too much intelligence on potential or actual threats is a security weakness and that intelligence services are NOT infallible although they are an important part of the national security apparatus.

I do not believe intelligence forces knew nothing.
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