Do we have any hope of an early general election?

[namechanged1233]

It goes without saying UK politics is in a mess! I think most of the country now thinks a general election is needed to make the changes needed

But a general election isn't due until January 2025. Do we have any chance of an early general election before then? I can't see the conservatives voting for it as they know they will lose.

Is there any other way? (I'm not particularly knowledgeable about politics and genuinely intrigued)

No. The Government can now call one early if they wish. However they won’t. They are so far behind in the polls they would be mad to call an election. The Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 has been dissolved and a new act came in this April giving greater flexibility.

I don’t think it will happen because the Backbenchers will get rid of Truss rather than call an election.

It the government loses a vote of no confidence then a GE can be called. The question is who will table it and would 80 Tory MPs cross the floor... potentially losing their jobs 2 years early.

We need it now.

@somewhereovertherain
The conservatives still have a whopping majority. The party is in disarray but they won’t relish giving up their jobs by being voted out. However they could earn more doing something else. This is why we end up with MPs who are not good enough.

It’s honestly got to a point for me now that even if labour got in, would everything suddenly improve?! I always vote. I urge others to vote. But I just don’t feel confident that any result would make a difference. Cynical I know.

@mnahmnah
No. It cannot improve because we are in a global downturn. We can manage it better though. We need people who are aware of possible reactions to their policies. Labour has little experience either and not much obvious talent either. We are seeing inflation that gives big problems. So do rising interest rates. So does high spending on COVID and heating bills. We have a disastrous exchange rates. We have big holes in pension pots. People cannot afford homes or even retire. Business is spooked and won’t invest. So, what could Labour do? Very little. But going carefully would be a good idea.

I wish!

The problem is when you use the word hope. Labour are probably going to be worse than the Conservatives seeing the lack of competence in their party and the problems they face. The problem of course goes back to when Blair was elected.
Whatever you think of John major and his government he had managed to balance the books and of course that gay Blair a free ride to grin and spend with his gormless Chancellor so that we got by on borrowing. Successive governments have done that and now the chickens have come home to roost in that we cannot keep borrowing without growth. Liz Truss at least tried to deal with the problem but probably in the wrong way at the wrong time but the blob decided they were in charge and squashed it.
So if you ‘hope’ for a general election you are barking up the wrong tree.

Nice try!

Hmmm, I think the labour shadow chancellor being a former Bank of England economist means labour would do things better. The current tories are really the bottom of the barrel.

Can't believe people are still blaming Blair

As his chancellor burgled all the pension funds and crashed the economy, well, yes!

The 2008 crash was down to Gordon brown?

As his chancellor burgled all the pension funds and crashed the economy, well, yes!

Was it just a coincidence that other economies globally crashed at the same time, or was Brown responsible for that too?

Just looked at the Daily Mail and saw this- it must be what Conservative central office has put in its press release today

It seems very unlikely. A lot of the Tories who might have put national interest first and voted for it were forced out by Johnson. I can't see anywhere near the numbers needed to trigger a GE rebelling, even as things get worse and worse.

We may well get another PM or two between now and the election. Frankly I'm tempted to put a bet on BJ being the next PM if I can get good odds- things are that nuts.

I doubt it, the 80 seat majority is still there and they won’t want to just throw it away yet

As his chancellor burgled all the pension funds and crashed the economy, well, yes!

Eh? I never voted for Blair but even I will admit we had: a decade of economic stability the like of which the Tories have not delived post war, no significant increase in tax burden (unlike Thatcher, Major and Cameron) and a competent response to the crash under him and Brown.

The reason the initial crash was followed by a decade without growth was Cameron/Osborne's policy of cutting captial investment while keeping taxes high. The US had a far worse response to the initial crisis and was hit harder but they recovered much faster because Obama pursued the polar opposite strategy.

I could spend all day listing my problems with Blair era policies but compared to what has come since he looks like a fucking economic genius.

I think it's highly unlikely. The Tories still have a massive majority and turkeys wouldn't generally vote for Christmas. They know that they will be toast if they go to the electorate now, and even those in previously safe seats will feel that they are at risk right now.

I think the only calculation that might make them think it's worth it is if they realise that things are going to get so bad that the Tories will become unelectable for generations. They might think that letting Labour come in and share some of the blame for the economic mess that is about to hit us will actually be better for the tories in the longer term. However, I don't think many will be willing to sacrifice their own seats and careers for the sake of the longer term interest of the party.

I think it's far more likely that Liz Truss will plod on, without any real power, at the mercy of whatever her party decides they want her to do. Jeremy Hunt can pretty much call the shots now as she can't afford to sack him. He wanted the top job... now he just has it by proxy. It's likely that they will then try to replace Truss again before the next election, but I think they will stick it out for a while so that she can be the convenient scapegoat for the economic turmoil, and then they will try to bring in a fresh face who can pretend that it had nothing to do with them.

@Kellie45
The Conservatives have taxed pension pots a huge amount and that’s why well paid medics leave. Others aren’t keen on those taxes either. Nothing to do with Tony Blair. Also Cameron was elected on a austerity ticket. Couldn’t do it but borrowing then was nothing like borrowing now. Liz Truss wanting to cut taxes by borrowing even more on top of COVID and energy help broke confidence. They are having to row back. Not surprising really. Hunt will have his work cut out to work with the PM. She might have to ditch mist of her promises but Sunak said they were unworkable.

I think it's unlikely, because it would require a lot of the people who stand to lose their jobs, ie Tory MPs, to support it. Turkeys voting for Christmas. Historically, governments who have reason to suspect they'll lose the next GE tend go for the full 5 years (Labour in 2010, Tories in 97 and 92 etc) and only those who think they'll win are happy to go earlier (Tories in 2017, Labour in 01 and 05). Some of these guesses have been wrong, but that was the rationale.

Labour are probably going to be worse than the Conservatives seeing the lack of competence in their party and the problems they face.

I would agree with this. Starmer is already backtracking on the bullshit he spouted around the time of the party conference now reality has hit home and he has finally realised he will be expected to deliver.

The polls would have to close a lot which isn't going to happen with Truss.

The only way we'll get an early election is if the Tories get a new leader bounce.

I don't care much for Starmer at all but the last 4 Tory leaders are a disaster. Cameron was a glorified PR man, May was robotic, Johnson a complete chancer and Truss worse than useless.

At least Starmer has some track record in his career.