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Politics

German election results...

47 replies

Spinflight · 24/09/2017 19:15

Looking very interesting...

Based upon exit polls.

Really though if they are merely off by a percent here and there Merkel might even need three minor parties to form a government. Which would make things exceedingly interesting.

Going to be a nailbiter I think...

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Mistigri · 30/09/2017 08:02

An optimistic view of the "Jamaica coalition" - a non-paywalled copy of the article published in the FT:

http://bruegel.org/2017/09/a-jamaican-germany-is-good-for-europe/

Would be curious to hear the view of German speakers. I can read a bit of German but not enough to consider myself knowledgeable about German politics.

Carolinesbeanies · 30/09/2017 11:12

I think youre right, that theres very little anyone can do to undo the current power base and remit of the Troika, but I dont agree Spin that they then have free rein to increase their powerbase any further.

They absolutely need political approval (whether so called 'democratically' via parliament, or by dictat via the Council), to make any changes. Previous 'approval' has come from the financial powerhouses of EU big hitters, able to flex their financial muscles against those smaller states in hock to them.

With the big hitters now on less than stable ground, I really cant see any sweeping reforms gaining any traction. I could be wrong of course, they may indeed propose debt write off in return for support of eurozone reformation, but would the German tax payers pay that write off bill? Not with the AfD and the FDP in the ascendancy.

SilverHawk · 30/09/2017 20:43

There was an interesting essay in the Times today titled 'A million problems for Merkel to solve' by Roger Boyes. You may be able to find it elsewhere as the Times is behind the paywall. However, everything has already been mentioned on this thread.

Spinflight · 01/10/2017 00:04

Hmmm...

Somewhat sneery and misses the turning point in the German public perception.

It wasn't even the mass rapes or the delayed reporting of them, though they were shocking. The various terrorist attacks committed here on the other hand really shocked the Germans.

The reason being that they viewed France as having problems due to the way the rather generous social security worked. The French pretty much accept that x% of people are going to be unemployed.

They viewed us as a successful interpretation of multiculturalism but thought they could improve upon it. There's some subtleties of language here, basically around the term engineering. The Germans believe themselves to be good engineers, and therefore will be good social engineers. Sound too simplistic? Yeah can't blame you, didn't really believe it myself. The only real substance behind this belief was that the German economy could provide immigrants with jobs. Make them welcome, make sure they have jobs and everything else will be ok.

Hence when young and often well educated people started blowing themselves and others up, going on knife and vehicle borne sprees the German's naivety and faith in immigration was rather forcefully burst. Doubts crept in and the AfD profited.

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Spinflight · 01/10/2017 00:54

"Mainly though because the civil service hasn't actually done anything to prepare for brexit."

Bad form quoting yourself but I found some concrete evidence for this.

Government procurement is the one area that very accurately reflects their view of the future. The longer term the buy the better a predictor it is.

Hence with the Royal Navy in dire straights due to Cameron's defence cuts and very few frigates which are often older than their crews the recently announced Type 31 program is... interesting.

I've heard plenty about the year of the Royal Navy. "due to our rising defence budget of £178 billion over the next ten years" etc. Also about how we are going to reintegrate with the rest of the world and operate globally.... How our two new aircraft carriers will blah blah blah.

And yet the T31 has a hard budget ceiling of £250 million. No western nation has built warships for that amount, very rarely for twice that amount. It might sound like a lot, and a lot of defence figures are designed to confuse. For something that will be in service for 30 years that's a tadge more than £8m a year. Add in £10m a year for running costs etc. Which is roughly the equivalent of building and running a new school or so.

Come to think of it a school isn't a bad analogy given the number of engineers being trained on board.

If the government and civil service were planning on a global Britain then why would they be ordering budget basement warships which aren't even capable of operating alongside the carriers?

Anyone who still thinks we are going to get our fishing waters back might wonder why they're decommissioning three perfectly serviceable patrol vessels from the fisheries protection squadron 10 years early. They leased them until a few years ago when they bought them outright. These aren't warships per se, they count fish basically and cost all of £10m a year to run 4 of them.

If the MoD can't find £10m in £36Bn or replace our small frigate fleet on a one to one basis then what does that tell you?

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SilverHawk · 01/10/2017 18:34

Thanks for adding the link Igneococcus. I still buy the paper copies Blush

SilverHawk · 01/10/2017 18:58

MOD procurement is a mysterious beast.
Re T31.
Three large companies are bidding, Babcock,Vospers and Lockheed, there may be more. All of these companies have the chassis of the ship. The ship itself isn't even designed yet. That's what the bids will reveal.
I don't understand why you say the T31 cannot work with the carrier?

PS The carrier is running XP apparently!!!!

Spinflight · 01/10/2017 22:19

Well the Type 31 will have no capability against submarines, the primary threat to carriers. Also only barebones self protection against an air threat which is less of an issue in a carrier task group.

Carriers though need as much wind over the deck as possible to launch aircraft, which also helps with landing them. Hence faces into the wind and runs at high speed. To escort a carrier your frigate therefore needs to be considerably faster than the carrier, especially on anti submarine duty where they sprint and then drift silently.

The top speed of the T31 requirement is 24 knots, which isn't even close to fast enough to escort carriers.

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Spinflight · 06/11/2017 16:42

It seems that Frau Merkel is really struggling to hold it all together, never mind actually negotiate a government coalition. Her grumpy Bavarians are close to breaking ranks.

Seems likely that fresh elections will be needed according to some.

More likely I think, given the precarious situation, is the loud threat of new elections needed to boot the Jamaicans into line.

Hence the inflexion point Caroline. Will the FDP's very mild euroscepticism survive the threat of calamity should the AfD pick up a couple more percentage points in fresh elections? Also the Green energy plan to piddle in her cornflakes?

While the cat's been away drunken Juncker has been at play. So too, allegedly, has the Saudi crown prince. Busy slaughtering his kith and kin, likely meaning the succession is nigh.

Which to me signals oil prices about to soar, though I often get my market predictions woefully wrong! :)

If so the eurozone needs to fasten it's seatbelts.

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Carolinesbeanies · 09/11/2017 00:49

I certainly think its hotting up Spin. I picked something up this week from the German Economic Council (or some such) and they were putting pressure on Merkel (actually Ill go find it) back in a mo.....

Carolinesbeanies · 09/11/2017 01:03

news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-11/09/c_136738025.htm

Theyre concerned about overheating, which is reasonable with their trade surplus, and the ECBs 'loose' policies. In turn, Merkel, appears hamstrung.

Heres their latest creditor figure, theyre holding 879billion. Id be sweating.

Defo getting hot Spin.

German election results...
Carolinesbeanies · 09/11/2017 01:23

PS Slight derail....but Berlusconi! Just when we think we cant be surprised, up pops something else.

Talk about living through history, I say this to my DH on a daily basis. We're in the throes of a massive shift in western politics though Im possibly far to obsessed with it Grin

But heavens, you can feel it in the water.

Carolinesbeanies · 15/11/2017 00:38

Merkels still having a nightmare Spin. Polls from the weekend show her dropped again, and the whole Jamaica alliance is , well going to shit. Following Macrons party walk out today, it appears a nasty case of 'democracy' is spreading through europe. You dont think its our fault do you?! Shock

Spinflight · 15/11/2017 11:58

She is, though in an odd way. The Greens have compromised it seems, no longer looking to piddle in her cornflakes over the power plants.

Hence one presumes it is the FDP holding their line.

Either way it's been a long time since the elections and I doubt any of them are going to relish new ones.

In relative power terms one thing that many forget is that weak governments suit the EU rather nicely. Eurosceptics should beware of considering your enemies enemy to be your friend.

With barely a strong government to show amongst the major economies Junker and co are quite happy.

Odd to see Macron's power seeping away at the same time as Merkel's? One might think they were joined at the hip. :)

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Spinflight · 18/11/2017 20:44

Classic example of zugzwang for Merkel..

Talks on the current coalition have to be formalised by 6pm Sunday ( well Friday if you accept the previous deadline).

The Green's still want to piddle in her cornflakes some more and the FDP want limits on immigration.

Trouble is she can't go back to the country as her own ratings and polling have dropped sharply. Partly as a result of said cornflake piddling.

Also fresh elections tend to produce results further from the centre, which wouldn't help her.

If these fall through then she can either break Shultz's arm to form another grand coalition ( and leave the AfD as the opposition) or form a minority government with the greens. Possibly they might demand even more piddling though.

Frankly executive political power is in crisis across the Western realms. The attitudes of the great unwashed are not represented and that damned democracy whatnot is getting in their ways.

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Carolinesbeanies · 19/11/2017 10:15

I saw that Spin,

"Sunday at 18:00 (17:00 GMT), it's over. This weekend, we must decide," said FDP leader Christian Lindner."

But Im just not sure why. Theres absolutely no legal/political footing to force a deadline today, apart from Merkel herself said she wanted to.

Polls on friday I think had the CDU down to 28%, and AfD have been slowly and steadily moving up. Around 16% now, from 12% in September. But, you then look at the Forbes most powerful women on the planet, and there she is, top spot again for the 7th year running. Clearly power isnt in national electoral popularity! Ah the 'EU' effect.

We'll see if anything falls out today, but agree, theres no way shes going back to the electorate.

Spinflight · 20/11/2017 01:46

Well the FDP finally walked out somewhere a bit before midnight so we can probably rule them out now.

Which leaves minority government or fresh elections.

Even minority government isn't as easy as it seems, the Greens would have to put any agreement ( for which formal negotiations haven't even begun) to a conference vote.

There's no guarantee that they wouldn't up their demands, and why shouldn't they?

Hence the EU can't do diddly squat until Germany actually has a government. Seems our own haven't even realised that the EU have been playing for time as trade talks couldn't realistically begin before they knew the German policy. Which is now still some way off.

Which might now not be known until fresh elections in late January, followed by months of haggling, etc etc. Or until the Greens can get their acts together.

Which does raise the interesting question of what would happen if an agreement under article 50 were reached but that some European country couldn't form a government to ratify it. Has to be unanimous under the letter of the law...

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Carolinesbeanies · 20/11/2017 02:15

I was just popping by to chew the cud spin. Im a tad surprised so itll be interesting to see what falls out of this this week.

On your, ratifying any deal, Ive never belived they ever intended seriously making one anyway, for the reason you give, hence why Barniers been speaking to the press before he even speaks to DD. Its political vaudeville.

Getting 27 nations to agree is just not going to happen. (and this was an interesting mathematicians view last week)

http://www.brugesgroup.com/blog/how-likely-is-a-no-deal-for-brexit

Mongolia just got their deal 'live' last week, and its taken 7 years, 3 to have lots of lunches, then another 4 for it to go round the 28 for agreement. Theres never been a hope in hell that Barnier has the authority to agree UK expats can stay in Hungary for example, or Italy to reiterate health agreements. He has no authority over nation states whatsoever.

But will this speed up exposing the ridiculous state of affairs? Are all those big boys really sitting there, in their home nations saying, we cant do anything till Angelas back? Hmm

Sorry to tell you bitcoins gone through the 8000 mark.......Shock

Spinflight · 20/11/2017 07:02

Well the FDP held firm on their mild euroscepticism Caroline, and as you graciously reminded me I lost out on a 100,000 to 1 shot.

:)

"But will this speed up exposing the ridiculous state of affairs? Are all those big boys really sitting there, in their home nations saying, we cant do anything till Angelas back? "

Pretty much yes. The imbalances in the eurozone, which in the main favour Germany, mean that the EU can't really reorganise it's finances till they know what Germany's policy is going to be. Which is impossible to know till there is a German government.

Which is a bit of an issue with Greece needing another bailout.

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Carolinesbeanies · 20/11/2017 11:24

Perhaps a timely reminder of net contributors here, and why Merkel is Forbes most powerful woman in the world. Clearly Macron fancies himself as the new EU Emporer if Merkel gets de-throned.

18 nations, who contribute diddly squat to the EU (and havent done so for decades) are standing in the wings with their annual begging bowls (actually add a few more, Mongolia for example, have already received over 500,000eus as part of their 'trade' deal), are utterly impotent. How uncomfortable must this be getting for them?

Meanwhile, back in Germany........

www.thelocal.de/20171114/number-of-people-living-on-german-streets-has-jumped-by-a-third-report

German election results...
Spinflight · 17/06/2018 04:37

She's probably toast.

Though I suspect we'll find out as soon as Monday.

The CDU are lining up a new leader though their choice is an interesting one.

To explain this just imagine being a German car manufacturer seeing that photo from the G7.. Would you be thinking anything other than we need a new leader?

Germany cannot afford to not get along with Trump at the moment. Whether that colours their choice....

If not it tells us that they really don't understand what is going on! :)

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