Will changes to tax credits prove to be Osbournes Poll Tax?

[SasWestisBest]

He seems to love her so much, is her trying to emulate her in that he is sowing the seeds of his own destruction?

Yes I think it will be their downfall.

I'm not sure it will be their downfall. I think it will be part of the puzzle, certainly.

We should consider other things, like the fact that Tory party membership is comprised of the elderly, who won't be around for very long, and on the other hand, a surge in younger people joining Labour who are likely to vote in 2020.

But you probably mean something which will kick them out before the next election?

Well, first they came for the unemployed, and most people didn't complain because they weren't unemployed,

then they came for the disabled, and most people didn't complain because they weren't disabled,

then they came for the poor, and only people started noticing what a bunch of sociopaths the Tories are.

then they came for the middle-class.... and then shit really kicked off.

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We'll soon be entering the last stage.

The very young are being offered a socialist vision without understanding the Labour Party's record delivering it, that were both (soiled) pants.

The elderly that now remember/suffered the last TWO Labour administration, will indeed croak, but unfortunately for Labour, the average age isn't now in their early 60's.

But Labour screwed EVERYONE one way or another, so whatever policy comes up for the next 10-years, there will be a Labour lesson of what NOT to do and an understanding 'the people' will suffer for many years ahead DUE to their last 13-years e.g. pensions.

Apr 2014; ”Revealed: Labour's 'stealth raid' took £118BILLION off pensions, 'paving the way for the end of final salary schemes as they were suddenly unaffordable'
• Gordon Brown scrapped tax relief on pension firms' dividends in 1997
• Move blamed for wrecking industry and decimating final-salary schemes

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2613609/Revealed-Labours-stealth-raid-took-118BILLION-pensions-paving-way-end-final-salary-schemes-suddenly-unaffordable.html

”Analysis by the Office for Budget Responsibility shows it has saved the Treasury almost £7billion a year – £2billion more than Mr Brown had expected.”

”The annual gain is expected to top £9.7billion this year with £117.9billion saved between 1997 and 2014.”

”Since 1997, the number of private sector workers with a defined benefit pension has collapsed from 5million to 1.7million.”

”In 1997, 34 per cent of staff at private sector firms were in a final salary – or defined benefit – scheme. By 2012, this had slumped to just 8 per cent – just one in 12.”

”Each year the dividend payments that pension funds were stripped of would have been reinvested and grown.”

”One financial expert calculates that the total amount stripped from the nation’s pensions could amount to as much as £260 billion. With less money in their coffers and with pensioners living longer and needing money for longer, pension funds soon ran into major difficulties.”

Meanwhile these same citizens will have to fund the unfunded pensions of a State bloated under Labour as a means to 'create' employment.
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/10698432/Final-salary-pensions-10-times-more-common-in-public-sector.html

Apr 2015; “Public sector pension scheme liabilities rise to £1.3 trillion
citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/news/public-sector-pension-scheme-liabilities-rise-to-1-3-trillion/a807925

The jump, which is an 11% increase on the £1.2 trillion reported for the 2012-2013 period, makes the cost of paying for public sector pensions nearly the same size as Britain’s deficit, which is currently running at £1.4 trillion,

So not THE old Labour need fear, but the majority of citizens as they GET old - including the spotty youngest Labour court who will end up footing the majority of the bill, while retiring at what, 100-years old?

Carey and Williams hit out at tax credit cuts

Two former heads of the Anglican Church have joined the chorus of criticism of the Government’s plan to cut tax credits.

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Lord Carey and Lord Williams have urged ministers to rethink their policy, which the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates will hit the lowest-earning families by an average of £1,300 per year.

Lord Carey, the archbishop of Canterbury until 2002, told the Daily Mirror Britain needed to “support struggling families who do their best through hard work”.

“I support the aim of the Government to make work pay and put in place a reasonable cap on welfare payments,” he said.

"But I urge the Government to reconsider these particular cuts to working tax credits that will hit many hardworking families very hard indeed.”

Lord Williams, his successor at Lambeth Palace, told the Sun on Sunday yesterday the decision “ought to be common sense”.

“There should be no debate about the aim of getting more people into employment. But it won't do to organise the system so that employment brings no advantages and no proper security for working people and their children,” he said.

The Government argues that a higher minimum wage and tax cuts will make up for the shortfall in incomes, but both the IFS and Resolution Foundation forecast that those on the lowest incomes will lose out.

Some Conservative MPs have also spoken out against the policy, with David Davis warning it could turn out to be this Government’s equivalent of Margaret Thatcher’s poll tax and Boris Johnson using his conference speech to call for low-paid workers to be protected.

www.politicshome.com/economy-and-work/articles/story/carey-and-williams-hit-out-tax-credit-cuts#sthash.dkO6eK8e.dpuf

If it was up to the church, we'd have £3 trillion national debt, pay £150 bil of annual interest on that debt - and they'd still be waiting for 'god to provide'.

Re The Government argues that a higher minimum wage and tax cuts will make up for the shortfall in incomes, ..there have been far more reforms that that to help the poor since 2010.

What were those gentleman saying from 2008 when all this shit was filtering down onto the poor?

Coming up to May 2010, we had a clueless Labour on how to create non public sector jobs to LIFT people out of poverty, and were putting UP taxes to those poor e.g. National Insurance - the 10p start tax rate had been taken away, Council Tax Band ‘D’ has risen on average 110% over 13-years, the poor started paying tax on earnings at just over £6k - as real earnings FELL from 2008 for those in work, while those out of work and homeless saw 3 million new citizens arrive, limiting their life chance further.

Yes, because cutting tax credits, like introducing the Poll tax, means millions of people losing a significant amount of net income - and at least some of them will be Tory voters.

Approx 3 million low to middle income families, with 4-5 million voters, will lose £1,300 p.a. on average.

The Survation poll found 27% of people said they were less likely to vote Tory because of the tax credit cuts, whereas 14% were more likely to.

So, politically a huge risk, especially as Osbourne looks the most likely to be the next Tory leader and he is responsible for this policy.

Approx 3 million low to middle income families, with 4-5 million voters, will lose £1,300 p.a. on average.

It seems to me what with 'stuff' like only affecting new claimants from 2017 and all the tax cuts/didn't rise under Labour from 2010 e.g. National Insurance, there still seems to be a great confusion on who exactly WILL be affected - but clearly it will be sorted by 2020, even if nothing else is done at all in future budgets to help.

Tory voter who confronted minister over tax-credit cuts may not be affected by reforms

”Michelle Dorrell, a 35-year-old mother-of-four, broke down in tears on BBC's Question Time as she confronted a minister over cuts to tax credits”
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11937376/Tory-voter-who-confronted-minister-over-tax-credit-cuts-may-not-be-affected-by-reforms.html

A tearful Conservative voter who confronted a minister on BBC's Question Time over cuts to tax credits is unlikely to be affected by the reforms, according to leading economists.

However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies suggested that because Ms Dorrell does not make a profit she is unlikely to be hit by changes to the income threshold for working tax credits, which is being almost halved to £3,850 a year.

She will also not be affected by the changes to child tax credits, which will only be restricted to the first two children for new parents from April 2017.

A Treasury spokesman said: “We cannot comment on individual circumstances, but the Government is determined to deliver a new settlement for the British people, one that will create a higher wage, lower tax and lower welfare economy.”

“The reforms to welfare set out in the Summer Budget are fair and necessary, and will take tax credit spending back only to 2008 levels, with most working households better off once all welfare reforms have come into force by 2017.”

I was quoting the most official figures I could find, page 10 of House of Commons Briefing Paper
They estimate average loss of £1300 in tax year 2016-2017, for 3.28 millon people, using HMRC statistics.

If other measures compensate for their cumulative loss before the General Election, then some of those Tory voters may return, or they may never forgive.

Depends too on whether Labour have managed to look a credible alternative by then, but it is a truism that oppositions raely win elections: governments lose them.

However, the vast majority of people who are affected are one or more of non-voters, Labour voters or living in safe Labour seats. The number of people who are (a) affected by the change and (b) swing voters in marginal seats is very small.

I don't think we do know this, & there was some quite peculiar voting last time, so it's entirely unpredictable at this stage. Certainly the Tories are actually giving Labour lots of sticks to beat them with next time, if Labour only get properly organised.

The UN is going to investigate IDS's abuse of the disabled. That'll be a tough one to brush under the carpet (they've been trying, but it's out there now)

Anyone losing money will be very bitter. Those who were aspirational voters especially, because their vote tends to be more motivated by money.
However, the opinion of the UN is not important to most voters, certainly not to those who are perfectly well aware anyway of the welfare cuts.

The electoral danger to the Conservatives is also laid bare in research released by Labour ahead of a Commons debate on the issue on Tuesday. It shows that 71 Tory MPs, including 23 new members of parliament in marginal seats, have more families who are set to lose substantial sums than was the size of their majority last May.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/17/tory-mps-at-risk-tax-credits?CMP=share_btn_tw