China,

[quoteunquote]

As we have narrowly avoided being hit by the shrapnel from Mitt Romney planned trade war with China, but I'm sure that little planned gem will reappear in four years time,

I thought that I would get to grips with China's future plans.

It appears(from above link) if I do manage to understand what's going on I could have that man's job, so who wants to try and figure out what is going on?

[Hamishbear]

Not quite niceguy, China are not cutting and running they are developing infrastructure and building schools and hospitals.

Quoteunquote see 'Chinese thread' I linked to up thread - have a read and be interested in your thoughts.

[Hamishbear]

China are well on the way to becoming a superpower, APMF. What's surprising is so many seem in denial.

[niceguy2]

China already are a superpower. And you are right. Lots of people either are in denial or think that this can be changed.

The people in the US have been conditioned into thinking the American way is the best and a model for everyone else to aspire to. But China is kicking their arses economically and it's hard for them to understand that the world has changed and whilst they are still no1, their days in the top spot are numbered.

[APMF]

China recently launched its first aircraft carrier, something it bought 2nd hand of the military equivalent of eBay :)

That day will inevitably come but before I call China a superpower I want to see it close to being able to match the US's fleet of seven nuclear powered carrier groups.

China is no doubt an economic superpower but currently it lacks the ability to project military power beyond its own borders.

[quoteunquote]

Another question we will have to start to tackle(time is ticking) is are we (Europeans) able to put differences aside, and come together and form a United States of Europe, in order that we will be able to compete, and stabilise.

Because it's very apparent that if we cannot manage USE, we will fall by the wayside.

off to read that thread, just popping in and out.

[ThinkAboutItTomorrow]

Can you really be a superpower without the military superiority?

[APMF]

Why do we have to come together in order to compete? Our current problem is because we are too close to countries like Greece as opposed to not close enough.

The Americans have it right (did I just say that out loud :) ) They have trade agreements with their neighbours Mexico and Canada and they are in a better shape than us.

[Erebus]

What China has failed to do do is to bring the majority of its population along for the ride. This may not be a serious 'problem' in the short term- they can, after all, shoot, with impunity, those who do not toe the party line.

However, where in history does despotism ultimately lead to stability and ongoing financial security? Yes, China may 'dominate' the next half century, but their pre-eminence will fizzle out. It is built upon sand. Their massive population imbalance, (m/f) alone, will destabilise them.

To me, China's biggest problem lies with the fact its economy is entirely dependent on supply, not innovation. That need to supply is currently buoying up economies like Australia's (and much of Africa) but the Chinese need people with the wherewithal to buy what they're making. That won't be us, will it?

I have to say that much though I loathe the Mitt Romney-esque American (educated, at least 'middle-class', self-reliant, curious, right-wing, conservative), the fact remains, their 'can-do' (which most of the rest of us only experience during wartime) will 'inherit the Earth'.

It won't be soon, it will be ugly. But I think China's shooting star will be bright but short-lived.

[Erebus]

And it was my impression that China, in Africa, are using local labour but all the engineers are Chinese.

And decade after decade of 'building local schools' has hardly turned Africa around, either pro-West or anything else, has it?

[Hamishbear]

Erebus you are not wrong if you look at things as they are now.

That said, things are changing in China they're investing massively in R&D, they will in the not too distant future IMO have their own globally competitive car brands - especially re: electric/hybrid cars. They will have their own airbus equivalent and well respected space programme. They've even designed an amazing submersible which can do to ocean depths never before thought possible. Who would have thought we'd have heard of Toyota and buy it globally? This was once a little thought of S Korean and Japanese brand directed at poor East Asian countries. I think you speak too soon. Chinese brands in sports and pharmaceuticals are also pretty soon going to start making their mark globally as well as domestically. I could go on there are so many examples.

China are an ancient civilisation with well established & regarded traditions. The state and civilisation intertwine. They have a new Government. They are aware of the serious problems you point out but they plan to try to solve them. They have very smart people. They plan to invest a much greater percentage of GDP in R&D. I'd argue they'll solve the gender imbalance issue, the lack of innovation, issues with water supply etc. I'd argue they have a much greater chance of solving these problems than American will in terms of future problems which will come their way.

American and the West is in seemingly terminal decline. I'd argue that confidence in the dollar will continue to go down. America are the biggest debtor nation in the history of the world. The renminbi looks set to become the reserve currency. Steady & smart planning, industriousness and cleverness may well trump insular and arrogant American 'can do' in time. So many think the Western way is the only way and misunderstand the East. Just because America has been at the helm for a long time doesn't mean it will always be at the helm.

[Hamishbear]

Sorry mean America rather than 'American' above!

[ThinkAboutItTomorrow]

It will be interesting to see, though may be as has been said, our children who see the change.

Culturally there is a clash (of civilisations, to borrow a phrase!) between the individualistic ethos of the US and the collective obligation traditional in China. I think that, almost more than the economics will be hugely impactful.

[APMF]

Shale gas has been in the news in recent years. There are large deposits of natural gas in the US that had remained untapped because of the prohibitive costs involved in drilling. New technology/methods has now made it possible to cheaply tap those deposits. This means that the US is guaranteed over 100 years of cheap natural gas. Already a number of corporations have announced that they will relocate from China, among others, back to the US because of availability of cheap gas.

So, Chinese ascendancy is not inevitable. For proof, look at what people were saying about Japan in the early 80s.

[Hamishbear]

Re: Shale gas - yes I remember reading about it & then being surprised I'd not heard more.

Chinese ascendancy is not inevitable, no, but I think with continued economic growth (albeit at a slowed rate) it's likely it will emerge one of two major global powers and ultimately the main one in time.

Re: Japan - you can't really compare. Japan's growth came to a stop at the end of the 1980s & their situation was entirely different. Japan wasn't a developing country but an advanced economy, one of the most advanced in the world. A Goldman Sachs report in 2007 claimed that the Chinese economy will overtake that of the US by 2027. Whilst it's possible that China might not emerge as the most powerful country in the world in time it's also possible American hegemony declines far more rapidly than anyone really anticipates & a new world Chinese order emerges.

[mumzy]

I doubt China will become a superpower in the same way as democratic cou tries such as USA. There is lots of unrest in the country as most of its population has yet to benefit from its economic success. Even the ones who have now want democracy and a say in how their government is run. I predict a "China Spring uprising" in the foreseeable future.