These conference sleights-of-hand will reap nothing but cynicism
In the heat of elections, politicians say anything. In the depths of a crisis, dissembling only harms our trust in the system
No change, laissez faire, do nothing, as markets around the world tumbled again in the eurozone crisis. But there stood George Osborne, the quintessential conservative chancellor, unchanged down the ages, cutting his way into a self-defeating spiral of stagnation. No more borrowing, he said ? without mentioning the £12bn extra debt his own austere policies have just added to the deficit. How archetypal of age-old Conservatism that he blames the lack of jobs on the tribunals defending people who are bullied or unfairly sacked by their employers.
That's just another example of how, at every turn here, the official theme ? Modern Compassionate Conservatism ? clashes with unfettered free-market ideology, family friendliness crashes into toughness, while "new localism" is squashed by Napoleonic central instructions on everything from bins to French for 5-year-olds. That's a contradictory trick which voters sniff out before long.
However, Osborne's firm tones explaining why austerity is the only way carried the weight of a man who believes he is doing the right, tough thing in terrible times. Growing numbers of serious critics ? this week Andrew Tyrie of the Treasury select committee ? warn him to turn back, but these are honest political and economic disagreements. Either Osborne will be proved right ? and if so, his party will be in power a long time ? or he is disastrously wrong, and his party will pay the price along with all the rest of us. If there is indeed another great cataclysm blowing in from the eurozone, trust in politics will be needed more than ever.
That is why it seems odd that so many other policies on display here are insincere, artificial and sometimes downright dishonest. This is not a disagreement over whether these policies are a good idea but whether ministers actually believe their own claims. Seasoned observers at party conferences count the small change from any announcement, watching for sleights of hand, but here the sheer scale of misrepresentation, over-promising and bogus boasts is surprising ? and in the current climate, needless. Conservatives get away with little scrutiny: when Gordon Brown fiddled his figures he was exposed within hours. But this party, with its flotilla of media support, sails away from factual economies with the truth that would have sunk Labour ministers.
Iain Duncan Smith tops the cabinet in a popularity poll among Conservative party members, and yet he is one of the worst offenders. Warm applause greeted his air of pained sanctity as he recounted tales from the inner cities. The fecklessness, the worklessness, the fatherlessness, the something-for-nothing culture sent tingling frissons down their spines. The trouble comes with his overblown claims that he can fix all the perverse incentives in the benefits system that he blames for dependency. His Universal Credit sounds impressive, but not many inspect his claim that it will solve every fiendish problem that foxed Beveridge. By alchemy it will smooth sharp tapers, and resolve housing benefit, childcare credit and contributory glitches.
Today he added another impossible. Not only will marriage be recognised in the tax system but "I intend our welfare reforms to make an impact on the couple penalty amongst families on the lowest incomes". The only way to fix that intractable problem is by giving both partners equal benefits regardless of where they live ? monumentally expensive, so the difference will be small.
A familiar bundle of other inexactitudes littered his speech, such the 250,000 apprenticeships for the young unemployed; most are cheap, short courses for adults already in supermarket jobs. He said: "The European commission orders us to open our doors to benefit tourists and pay them benefits when they arrive. I have a simple message: no, no, no." Another message is no, no, no, it's not true, and he knows it.
There are doubts about this, too. "Our Work Programme is giving new skills to people far from the jobs market", because he recently ordered all contractors not to publish any figures. Of Labour's legacy, he says: "Income inequality is the worst for a generation", when he knows how much worse his cuts will make it, from childcare to failing to uprate benefits by inflation. He makes the populist claim that he was bequeathed "massive error and fraud" in benefits, when official figures find only 0.5%. This is not honest from a man who by now knows better, nor politically necessary when the truth would do.
Why pick on him? Other ministers do much the same. A big promise this week is that releasing public land for builders will create 200,000 affordable homes and 400,000 jobs ? but Financial Times analysis calls these figures "far-fetched". The freeze in council tax gives households an average £72 a year, but councils are only being compensated less than inflation, so that means more cuts to services, and deep cuts to council tax benefit making the poorest worse off.
Bogus policies are those that ministers announce while knowing full well they either don't do what they claim or do much less. If pollsters find the public turning away, this over-promising and under-delivering is one reason why.
Voters have much to be cynical about when they look back at Conservative promises in the run-up to the election. Osborne called PFI "failed and discredited", but now he's signed deals worth another £17bn. David Cameron said there would be no VAT rise, and on child benefit he said: "I wouldn't means-test it." On scrapping EMA, Michael Gove said "we won't". Liam Fox promised "a bigger army", but now 22,000 are cut. Of the promised 3,000 more midwives, there's no sign. People remember Cameron saying, days before the election: "Any cabinet minister who comes to me and says 'Here are my plans' and they involve frontline reductions, they'll be sent straight back to their department to go away and think again." None have been sent back so far ? while a third of police stations close, 8,000 nurses are losing their jobs, and so on. No doubt that's why I was twice abused in the street by passersby ? "Tory cunt", and more politely, "Tory scum" ? for wearing a conference pass.
In the heat of elections politicians will say almost anything. But now, in the depths of crisis, there is no need to dissemble. These things will be found out before long, and that harms not just the party that knowingly overclaims but trust in the political system itself. And some day that could get dangerous.
www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/03/conservative-conference-trust-in-politicians