Very good critical analysis of the current economic crisis we're in

[ttosca]

From Crisis to Slump - James Meadway:

Not really, cogito, but answering such a question usually involves a long post, since it is necessary to challenge many of the assumptions behind the question itself - for example... your idea that abolishing Capitalism was 'impossible' - as if it were some kind of 'natural' phenomenon, when it reality it has only existed for 400 or so years and came in to being after the industrial revolution in the UK and Germany.

I'll answer your question in more length when I have more time. I am currently writing a paper.

400 years? So they didn't buy or sell goods for a profit in Roman times? No concept of trading in Ancient Egypt? And those mediaeval hoards of gold and silver were just what... home furnishings? Since man started farming and bartering what he produced for other goods and services, capitalism has existed.

I'm sure it will be a long post if you're trying to rewrite history.

Cogito-

I'll try to be brief. Capitalism is roughly 400 years and came about after the industrial revolution in europe.

Selling goods for profit is not sufficient for an economic system to be 'Capitalist'. You are referring to mercantilism. You could argue that mercantilism was proto-Capitalist in that it has a profit motive, but it was certainly a very different from modern Capitalism as we know it.

You've gone one worse, though, because you've even claimed that bartering is Capitalism, so you even left out buying and selling for profit. Bartering is not Capitalism.

I think your problem is that you're confusing Capitalism with trade. Trade has existed since man had any surplus material - basically since agriculture.

Capitalism is something quite different. Here is a brief outline of the differences:

public.wsu.edu/~dee/GLOSSARY/CAPITAL.HTM

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In any case, my point was that Capitalism is not a 'natural' system like the weather. It is an economic system of human creation, just as slavery, surfdom, and mercantilism were.

When humans have no more use for Capitalism, they were invent new means of engaging in economic activity - this is happening already, and has happened throughout history. Eventually, a new dominant mode of economic activity will take the place of Capitalism.

Given the amount of pollution, climate change, food and water scarcity, tonnes of junk we produce and the periodic crisis that we're experiencing under Capitalism with greater frequency and intensity, I'd say that change will come about within the next few decades.

If we've had 400 years (although I maintain it is far longer and you are merely splitting hairs about terminology) to come up with a 'new means of engaging in economic activity' and have not done so - including the catastrophic, failed, large-scale experiments of communism and national socialism - I would say there is little chance of it happening in future.

I suspect 'capitalism' in it's modern form has ev

Oops - try again.

I suspect that 'capitalism' has evolved from much tougher, less democratic systems of organising economic activities (such as feudalism).

According to Marx, capitalism is a stage on this evolutionary path - with socialism the destination. I'm not sure if that idea has wide support now. As far as I can see, most mainstream 'socialists' appear to accept capitalism as part of economic reality.

Actually jack, feudalism was a military system. You could say that now, the military has been completely socialised and communised :)

Cogito-

If we've had 400 years (although I maintain it is far longer and you are merely splitting hairs about terminology) to come up with a 'new means of engaging in economic activity' and have not done so - including the catastrophic, failed, large-scale experiments of communism and national socialism - I would say there is little chance of it happening in future.

lol. Do you think Capitalism is 'the end of history'? That humanity won't progress from a Capitalist system to something more rational, ever?

400 years in the history of humanity isn't very long, and other systems, including slavery, lasted thousands of years.

I think we're approaching a situation where humanity will simply have to find a better system, as it can't go on with 'growth' for the sake of growth, can't go on polluting, causing climate change, concentrating more and more wealth and power into fewer and fewer hands, whilst failing to provide basic needs for the majority of humanity.

Civil unrest is here, and likely to grow exponentially in the coming decades. You'll see. There are many people who are not satisfied with the current system.

ttosca - I have one quibble with what you say. Humanity has already tried the civil unrest route to a different economic and social model - and that didn't go too well. I think successful transformation will be through the evolutionary route (enabled by technological advances) and we probably won't see it in our lifetimes.

ttosca - I have one quibble with what you say. Humanity has already tried the civil unrest route to a different economic and social model - and that didn't go too well.

What on earth are you talking about? The French, American and Russian revolutionary wars all brought in a new social order.

Yes - that's what I'm talking about. All that death, disruption and generations of suffering. Maybe it was worth it in the case of US and France - but modern people wouldn't risk it now, especially given what happened in Russia.

Well, that's a different argument. You're saying that revolutionary change is not the price worth paying for revolutionary change.

That's a different argument from whether or not violent revolutionary change is effective, which clearly, in some examples, it is.

You may not think that its a price worth paying, and that's fair enough. I can respect pacifism, but many people throughout history have disagreed and have brought about revolutionary change sometimes with the aid of violence.

I agree with Cogito that the financial crisis and the need for austerity by Govt ar two separate issues.

However, the next shoe to drop will certainly be Govt defaults becuase they cant afford to pay back what they have borrowed which will crush banks, stockmarkets wil drop, pensions will be destroyed, property values collapse and millions thrown out of work. if Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain default on their Govt debts that will crash the entire banking system of Europe and possibly the US and plunge us into a Depression.

There will be no bank bailout next time and no austerity wil dig us out fo a hole. Only debt writeoffs will did us out of the mess that is still there but simply kicked down the road.

Once the Depression arrives, we may well get a clamouring for a return to protectionism and mercantilism across the world. Free market capitalism has never actually existed in reality. At best we have had managed trade and heavy Govt intervention in domestic economies for most of the last 100 years. Before that we had the British Empire which ran on mercantilist lines in international trade and with licenced monopolies being handed out in the domestic economy.

What happened in Russia is that they got rid of a Tsarist system. If they didn't have that revolution, they'd be stuck in an 18th century social order.

You're saying that revolutionary change is not the price worth paying for revolutionary change.

Damnit. I wish there was an edit function. I meant:

"You're saying that violence is not the price worth paying for revolutionary change..."

ttosca - I'm saying even the risk of violence will put the majority (of those living in a developed world democracy) off serious physical civil disobedience.

BeenBeta's scenario is both scary and IMO more likely (though I hope not).

Morebeta (sorry)

In the next 20-25 years we will be back to the days of rationing of food and fuel as with growing populations the planet will not be able to provide for all.

If we are very lucky it will mean everyone pulling together with gardens used to grow vegetables and to keep chickens together with a strong and supportive community bond with the old and sick looked after properly.

It wont (I hope) be like the 20's and 30's because technology will stop a slide into mass poverty.

No doubt the rich will live in their gated communities and still live high on the hog so no change expected there.

If we are unlucky the developed world will end up having resource wars, Iraq anyone.

I dont see this altogether as a bad thing as "growth" without end will fuck the planet sooner or later.

There are currently 40 million Americans living on food stamps. Rationing by another name.

Rationing in itself is not all bad, it may help stop the obesity plauge and all it's inherent bad health and maybe it will stop people driving half a mile to pick up a Newspaper because they a just lazy.