I did not say anything about unreasonable expectatations. The majority of Catholics are in the global South not the global North so their concerns and priorities for the church will dominate. As we have seen the Papacy has now moved South and I imagine that our Popes from now on will be more likely to come from Latin American, Africa and India than Europe.
In 2050 the countries with the largest Catholic populations will be as follows:
- Brazil
- Mexico
- Philippines
- United States
- Democratic Repulic of Congo
- Uganda
- France
- Italy
- Nigeria
10. Argentina
Most European Christians of any stripe are only nominally so, so France and Italy will have little influence in setting the Catholic worldwide agenda for priority issues.
The profile of Southern Catholicism is morally conservative, politically liberal. Their concerns are globalization, environmentalism (strong protections of the environment), access to education and healthcare, and their problems are of growth in the church not decline. They are also very youthful and optimistic parts of the church, vigorous and not weighed down by the past. The Reformation for example, has no meaning to them.
As I'm sure you know Catholics understand priesthood in a different way than Anglicans and other Christians. In most parts of the world parishes are very large and the priest has a very large congregation. When I lived in the US our parish had at least 700 registered families, (each famiy on average 4 or more people) so those very active in the parish - plus many people who who we're not registered but still came to Mass. So at least a couple of thousand people coming to Mass on Sunday. We had five Masses on Sunday - all full. Therefore the Priest's role worldwide is becoming more and more focused on the liturgy and sacraments while all other pastoral work that can be, is done by laity.
As of 2005 roughly 80% of the 31,000 lay ecclesial ministers in the US were women. Co-Workers in the Vineyard of the Lord provides this breakdown: laywomen - 64%; religious women, 16% and laymen; 20%.
In our parish the physical plant: church, school and large parish community center was the responsibility of a woman and her staff. Our Financial director was a woman. Catechisis was done by a large team of people, first the leaders were a Deacon and his wife. Then they retired and my female friend who has a Masters is Theology took over. Our diocese's most senior Canon lawyer was a woman for example and almost 40% of professional workers at the Vatican are women.
Changes are happening but with a huge, international organization such as the church it will happen gradually. John Paul II appointed in 2004 Salesian Sr. Erica Rosanna to a senior Vatican post and Harvard law professor Mary Ann Glendon as the President of the Pontifical Academy for Social Sciences, the first women to head a pontifical academy. More appointments have happened since then. Symbolic maybe, but signs of where the church is going.
The church is enormous. "One can make a good case that Catholicism also contains elements of what system theorists playfully call "organized anarchy", meaning a loosely organized system that contains multiple power and authority structures. Think of the interplay of the Vatican, national bishops' conferences, individual bishops in their dioceses, religious orders, lay movements, charismatic Catholic intellectuals and activists, and so on. Organized anarchies tend to be uncertain, unpredictable, and nonlinear. Changes are likely to be scattered throughout the system in different ways and to a different extent, depending upon local circumstances and opinion. All these forces are at work inside the Catholic Church with regard to lay roles, which make it difficult to anticipate how the picture will develop in the twenty-first century. Changes are unlikely to occur in uniform fashion." John L. Allen Jr.
Nothing stops lay women from forming and leading lay movements if the Spirit leads them. The founder of Focolare (founded in Italy in 1943) was a woman, Chiara Lubich. Focolare is present in 182 countries reaching 4.5 million people. The Focolare constitution requires that the president be a woman.