This is the government's answer to your question as set out by them in their proposals www.nhsemployers.org/your-workforce/pay-and-reward/national-negotiations/q-a-on-the-new-junior-doctor-contract-proposals#1
Shall I let you draw your own conclusions from the "political speak"?
Will average earnings go down?
No, it’s untrue to say that average earnings will go down. The new system is being designed to cost exactly the same, which means that average earnings for junior doctors will stay the same. Our proposals would see basic pay go up whilst average earnings are maintained.
Will individual doctors get a pay cut?
While average earnings will stay the same, redistributing pay from an unfair system to a fairer one does mean that some people who are disadvantaged by the current rules will see their overall earnings go up, while some who are currently advantaged will see their earnings go down.
As the BMA has pointed out, under the current New Deal system a doctor working 47 hours a week can be paid exactly the same as one working 41 hours a week. Under the banding system, a doctor working daytime only can be paid exactly the same as a doctor working night shifts and late shifts, and a doctor progressing to a post with extra responsibility can sometimes actually see their overall earnings go down.
We want a system that rewards doctors for taking on additional responsibility, pays more for extra hours worked, and targets supplementary pay at unsocial hours and shortage specialties.
One of the big tasks ahead is to work out how to move from one system to the other in a sensitive and carefully managed way that doesn't unfairly penalise individual doctors.
Can you guarantee that I won’t receive a pay cut?
Unfortunately we cannot guarantee this. As in our response above, this is one of the consequences of moving from the current pay system to a new, fairer system. We are still designing the pay system and have yet to decide transitional and pay protection arrangements.
Could you provide a worked example/pay calculator showing how pay will be affected under the new contract?
Unfortunately we cannot at this time. We realise this is one of the key issues you would like to find out more about.
We had expected to design pay arrangements with the BMA JDC in negotiations, and as this is not now possible, we are now having to design the different elements of the pay system ourselves. This requires detailed modelling, which cannot be rushed.
In order to provide a worked example of pay, we would need to know the level of basic pay in the new system, the out-of-hours periods, the premium rates paid for these out-of-hours periods, the workings of the flexible pay premia, and any protection or transitional arrangements. As none of this has been finalised yet it is impossible to convert pay in the current system to pay in the new system.