Webchat with three experts on Brexit and the EU: Friday 15 March at 10am

[BojanaMumsnet]

Hello

Following on from this week’s ongoing events in Parliament, we thought it would be interesting to have a webchat with our friends at The UK in a Changing Europe on Friday 15 March at 10am.

As some of you will know they’ve joined us a few times before - you can view their previous webchat in January here.

Here’s some information about the guests and their backgrounds:

Professor Jonathan Portes is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of Economics and Public Policy in the Department of Political Economy at King's College London. Previously, he was principal research fellow of the National Institute of Economic & Social Research. Before that he was chief economist at the Cabinet Office, and previous to that chief economist at the Department of Work and Pensions.

Professor Catherine Barnard is senior fellow at The UK in a Changing Europe; Professor in European Union Law and Employment Law at the University of Cambridge; and senior tutor and fellow of Trinity College. Catherine specialises in EU law and employment law.

Professor Barnard will only be able to join us for half an hour, as she is kindly stepping out from a four-hour meeting for this (!)

Professor Anand Menon is Director of The UK in a Changing Europe and Professor of European Politics and Foreign Affairs at King’s College London. He has held positions at Sciences Po, Columbia University and NYU. He has written on many aspects of contemporary Europe and is a frequent commentator on national and international media and you may have seen him on Question Time last week.

Please do join us on Friday to talk about what’s going on, what might happen next, and what’s going on (again). If you can’t make it, please post your question on this thread in advance. Please bear in mind the webchat guidelines one question each (follow-ups allowed if there’s time), and please be polite. Also following recent chats/guest posts we’ve updated our guidelines to let people know that, if one topic is overwhelmingly dominating a discussion with a guest, mods might request that people don't continue to post what's effectively the same question or point. Rest assured we will ALWAYS let guests know that it's an area of concern to multiple users and will encourage them to engage with those questions.

Thanks
MNHQ

Nope. We can legally go back to where we were by revoking ARticle 50 - but that doesn't turn back the political or economic clock. Economic damage so far has been significant (reduced investment, loss of economic confidence) but limited, and could be mostly reversed if the situation was resolved. Politically the effects are much more profound..

@herecomesthsun

Sheesh, can we not just stop this, you know, go back to where we were?

If we did, how much damage do you think all this will have done?

Baffled how we can have been lied to so badly, how the campaigning was so dishonest, and then so much store is set by a referendum result that should be void.

@QueenOfTheCroneAge

Do you predict civil unrest over the vote in favour of a request for an extension of article 50?

I don't, to be honest. Certainly some people will be disaapointed and you can't rule out a little trouble round College Green where the protestors all gather, but I don't think we really do unrest in this country the way, say, the French do.

@OhYouBadBadKitten

My question is: What now?

I suppose the only answer I can give is 'God knows', but things are at last moving, and will be much clearer one way or another by the end of next week, so ask me again then!

It's hard to say for sure, but if you made me give my best guess, I'd say yes we will.

@Bluesmartiesarebest

Hello

As experts do you predict that the UK will actually leave the EU?

Thank you

Formally, not at all in that we remain a member state. But I think two things have happened. First, we have lost a lot of our influence or 'soft power' in Brussels, as we have burned our reputation as a reliable partner with some member states. Second, the process has impacted already on our economy in terms of a loss of investment and falling business confidence.

@Songsofexperience

Thank you so much for joining the chat again. I found your answers last time incredibly helpful.

If we end up not leaving or are granted a significant extension, to what extent has the UK's participation in EU projects already been affected and how easy or difficult would it be to pick up where we left off?

@onegrapeshortofabunch

If we stayed in the EU, are there any opportunities for reform? Both for the EU and for the UK, which has been irreparably damaged by this situation anyway.

Refomr has proced to be terribly hard to do in the EU. This is partly because the major structural reforms needed require Treaty revision and that in turn wil require referenda in a number of Member States and, from the EU's point of view, referenda have not produced the 'right' result in a number of Member States. So there is deep concern about starting a process which will end up with the requirement of treaty refrom. This means more things are being done 'intergovernmentally' ie outside the EU institutional structure and that is less democratic.

Hello, thanks for coming back for another webchat! Are any of you stockpiling anything just in case?

Late to the party!
May has totally failed to build consensus and we now are a badly divided nation.
What do you think should be done to try and bring the nation of individual voters together behind whatever the ultimate outcome is?

The EU has always and will continue to "evolve" (whether you consider it to be "reform" depends on your perspective. Certainly it faces a lot of challenges now - either with or without the UK. The risk is that it is detracted by internal political squabbling (Italy, Hungary, etc) from confronting the big long-term economic challenges (ICT/digital economy etc).

@onegrapeshortofabunch

If we stayed in the EU, are there any opportunities for reform? Both for the EU and for the UK, which has been irreparably damaged by this situation anyway.

It's impossible to be sure. I am not convinced she will get the votes to get it through on Tuesday, though it will be closer than this week, I think. IF the vote fails on Tuesday, the PM is committed to going back to Brussels to ask for a delay though she hasn't specified how long for. That will be an interesting discussion with EU leaders!

@Motheroffourdragons

Thank you for coming back here.

My question now is with news coming in this morning that Eurosceptics are coming round to May's WA, do you think that this is what we will end up doing, or do you think the House of Commons will agree to a long extension of Article 50 if the EU allows it?

Not me! Although I do know people who are, and if I was dependent on specific medications produced outside the UK I would at least think about the options.

@Caffeinesolution

Hello, thanks for coming back for another webchat! Are any of you stockpiling anything just in case?

Blimey! It's certainly true that if May is replaced by someone more Brexity, they might try to negotiate a rather minimal trade deal. That's one reason why the Labour party, legitimately, is not keen to wave this deal through. One thing that may happen is that the PM offers parliament some kind of 'lock' on the trade deal - a binding vote on the negotiating mandate, or even on the trade deal itself as a way of assuaging these concerns.

@wheresmymojo

If we make some assumptions about what might happen next (stay with me, I know these might not come to pass..)

• The WA passes
• May steps down
• Replaced by someone altogether more 'Brexity' (BoJo et al)

What would you anticipate any future relationship and trade deal with the EU to look like?

Have we, as far as you are aware, made any in roads to developing a strong negotiating team (one can only hope this is the plan, not to make the same mistake twice)?

@lonelyplanetmum

This is a question about the politicians and the public who (ignorantly) deny input from experts and expertise. Its a cheeky second question.

The explanations you have given on previous web chats have come to bear with precision and prescience. Thank you. You accurately explained on the last web-chat that the most likely outcome would be an extension and, of course, you have been proved right.

Do you think the fashion for denial of experienced expert knowledge is uniquely British and American phenomenon? Why has it happened? Will wider respect for knowledge and deeper understanding return within our lifetimes?

Thanks for your kind words. As an 'expert' it is hard to explain. It may be we are at fault for not being willing enough to engage. But it is also the case that large parts of the public are operating based on their own gut feelings at the moment - here and in the US - because they think that experts have not delivered for them. Indeed it was (some) experts who advocated austerity since 2008 and I think austerity is the reason behind much of the situation we now find ourseleves in.

What are MPs hoping to achieve by constantly voting against May's WA, if it's not to revoke A50?

@Motheroffourdragons

Thank you for answering my question.

Another if you don't mind.

How likely is it now that Scotland will have a second independence referendum as a result of all this?

Significantly higher, I think, especially if the backstop ever comes into effect because it will advantage NI to the signficant detrmiment of Scotland. However, all the tactics that the EU has used against the UK over 'independence' will be applied by the UK against a Scotland looking for independence. So it will be very messy.

The trouble with reforming the EU is that all member states need to agree the reforms, and they all have very different ideas about which reforms are necessary. So it's hard, but I should say that, as a member state, the UK had a very good track record of securing things it wants - Thatcher drove the creation of the single market, while we secured opt outs from things we didn't like - the Euro, Schengen etc

@onegrapeshortofabunch

If we stayed in the EU, are there any opportunities for reform? Both for the EU and for the UK, which has been irreparably damaged by this situation anyway.

thank you for answering my question!

To May: Your approach has failed. You should withdraw your opposition to allowing Parliament a series of indicative votes on realistic options (as proposed by Yvette Cooper/Nick Boles), so that Parliament at least (and hopefully the country) can at least find a majority for a viable option.

To Corbyn: Labour needs to offer a clear and deliverable policy that can unite most of the Labour party and at least some of the Conservative Party. That means either REmain via a second referendum, or a soft Brexit that includes customs union and single market membership - including some form of freedom of movement.

@OlgaArsenievnaOleinik

I'm giving you 5 minutes with TMay and 5 mins with JCorbyn. What would you say to them?

They will have voluntarily taken a drug which makes them shut up and listen for 5 mins!

@Weetabixandshreddies

What are MPs hoping to achieve by constantly voting against May's WA, if it's not to revoke A50?

Views are split - and this is where ultra remainers and ultra leavers meet. The former want to vote against the PM's deal because they think it is bad and want to stop the whole process. The latter want to vote against TM's deal becaue they think it is not 'leave' enough.

Is it time to eat my stockpile, or should I keep adding to it?
(I've built up a smallish stockpile to try to mitigate against any supply chain issues and because I would find it difficult to weather any price increases related to Brexit.)

Different factions want different things - that's why there is a majority against May's WA but not a majority for anything else. Some want No Deal, some a 2nd ref, some a softer Brexit.

@Weetabixandshreddies

What are MPs hoping to achieve by constantly voting against May's WA, if it's not to revoke A50?

Much easier said than done! The country is profoundly divided over Brexit and those divisions are deep. That being said, I think one way of trying to overcome the divisions would be to start thinking about policy again. Remember, most people will judge Brexit not in terms of the trade deal we sign with the EU, but as a function of what happens inside the UK once we've left.

@ChiaraRimini

Late to the party! May has totally failed to build consensus and we now are a badly divided nation. What do you think should be done to try and bring the nation of individual voters together behind whatever the ultimate outcome is?

@BlueEyeshadow

How likely do you think it is that we'll still crash out due to incompetence rather than intention?

Thanks for joining us again!

Less likely than before, at least on 29 March 2019. Although there is much gashing of teeth on the EU side, they are still likely to give us an extension until end of May, possibly the end of June. The magic of these dates is the timing of the European Parliament elections at the end of May (MEPs don't take their seats until 2 July).

Short term I think unlikely. Medium term quite possible

@Motheroffourdragons

Thank you for answering my question.

Another if you don't mind.

How likely is it now that Scotland will have a second independence referendum as a result of all this?