Quiz Jonathan Freedland on Trump, May, Brexit and anything else that takes your fancy

[KateMumsnet]

Hello all - do join us for a webchat with Jonathan Freedland this Thursday at 1pm. Jonathan writes about UK and global politics for the Guardian and the New York Review of Books, amongst others - and is the author, under the pseudonym Sam Bourne, of the Maggie Costello series of thrillers.

His latest, To Kill the President, charts the rise to the presidency of a volatile demagogue whose vanity and tyrannical leanings threaten global stability. As the US hovers on the brink of a nuclear attack on North Korea, Maggie discovers a plot to kill the president - and has to decide whether to expose the plot or leave the president to his fate.

The novel was published in July to great reviews - many of which pointed out that the novel's eponymous president is a not unfamiliar figure .

So now's your chance to ask one of the premier analysts of global politics your questions on the Trump presidency, the prospects for American democracy and its place on a turbulent world stage - and indeed, any questions you might have about the current state of play of British politics, mid-Brexit.

The webchat will take place at 1pm on Thursday 3rd August - do join us then, and in the meantime leave your advance questions in the comments below.

Hi Jonathan,

Are you confident that the Guardian will still be around in ten years and, if so, what form do you think it will take?

Thank you.

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What, if any, do you think are the common themes between Brexit and Trump? Why have the Anglophone countries gone so nuts? And is there any hope left for humanity?

Hi there everyone. I'm here and getting ready to answer your excellent questions...

Hi Jonathan,

The top story on the guardian website at the moment is about the possibility of a second Brexit referendum. Is that really possible? I thought that once we'd triggered article 50 there was no going back?

@IdentifiesAsYoda

Hi Jonathan

Have you any views on the theory that Trump is showing signs of cognitive decline? It seems more and more obvious that on top of his 'difficult' personality there are word-find problems, rambling speech (with lots of repetition and the substitution of general terms for the more specific ones he's searching for), apathy, irritability, inappropiate outbursts (!) and sometimes actual disorientation - wandering off, for instance. Also the unsteadiness in his walking. Trump's father suffered from dementia.

If he is, like Reagan, in the early stages of dementia what are the mechanisms available to have his health checked out? Does it suit the GOP for this to continue?

This is a fascinating question -- and one serious people are paying attention to. I've read a couple of expert analyses that do indeed show, as you say, that Trump's speech pattern has clearly deteriorated in recent years. His vocabulary has shrunk - he does not have many variations on "beautiful" for good and "horrible" for bad - and he now avoids complex sentences. Those who know about dementia say this could be a relevant sign.

As for mechanisms, the 25th Amendment allows for a president to be declared unable to perform his duties, but that declaration has to come from a majority of the Vice President and the cabinet. I cannot see the current crop - all appointed by Trump himself - turning on him in this way.

This very issue is one the characters in To Kill the President wrestle with. When they reluctantly conclude that the fictional president they serve is a threat to world safety, they explore what it would take to have him declared incapacitated.

What will it take for the GOP to decided that enough is enough. Will they?

Also, do you think we will be having an Autumn general election?

@Dunlurking

Do you think anyone (in the WH at the moment, or elsewhere) is watching the president's moves and has the authority (or directions from some authority, e.g. secret services) to ensure he doesn't press the button in a moment of madness. Just thinking about Gen Kelly . . . .

Great you've mentioned this, because it's this scenario that kicks off To Kill the President. In the first chapter, the unnamed, fictional president orders a nuclear strike against N Korea and China - and there is precious little anyone can do to stop him. This is rooted in a quite terrifying fact: authority over the nuclear arsenal is among the least checked or restrained powers that a US president has. It's absolutely his decision alone. No one else has any role -- not the Defense Secretary or the head of the military, no one. The president simply asks his personal military aide for the codes, calls the Pentagon war room and issues the order. That's it.

But are there people worried by that power (as they were when Nixon was president)? I suspect they are. Which is why my book imagines two very senior officials beginning to wonder where - when the president is so clearly unhinged and dangerous - their true duty lies.

What will it take for the GOP to decide that enough is enough. Will they?

Relatedly, do you see a split between the 'regular politicians' in the Republican party and Trump's people.

this is a comforting web chat

Oh Yes indeedy.

@Lweji

It's often said that everyone has a price.

Similarly, what do you think it would take for you to consider killing (or helping to kill) the leader of your own country?

What do you see happening to the US, in terms of international relations, if Trump continues to conduct his Presidency as he has so far? Will it pose a real threat, or will it fizzle out in terms of influence?

How do you see the US in five years? Will it have succumbed to a dictator or will it manage to come out stronger with an improved democratic system?

Lots of good questions here, but I'm struck by your very first question: what would it take...

I can't imagine even considering such a thing myself. But I was interested in the dilemma of being placed in such an extreme situation. The two men who decide to take drastic action in the book are loyal patriots who reach their conclusion very reluctantly.

But the woman at the centre of the story - Maggie Costello - also has a big dilemma. She's an idealist, a former aid worker and peace negotiator who went to work for the previous (and much admired) president. She can't stand the new president. When she discovers there is a threat to his life, she has to weigh up what's right -- to say nothing and let it happen, or to stand in the way. That dilemma, and the way she wrestles with it, interested me a lot.

@OhYouBadBadKitten

What will it take for the GOP to decided that enough is enough. Will they?

They've certainly an enormous capacity for tolerating awfulness so far. I'm clear that a strong case for impeachment already exists - far stronger than the case against Nixon or Clinton. The grounds for impeachment - on obstruction of justice alone - are there. It's just that Republicans have not had the backbone, or sense of duty to country above party, to enforce the rules.

There have been some encouraging signs. Worth looking at the denunciation of Trump written a few days ago by Senator Jeff Flake. And the No vote on the repeal of Obamacare by Senators Collins, Murkowski and McCain was important. But for the rest? They won't shift until they see Trump's voters abandoning Trump. It's them that Republicans fear. Keep an eye not on the general approval number for Trump, but on the specific approval number for him among Republicans. It's long been in the 70s and 80s. When that slips to 65 per cent approval or lower, then Republicans might start breaking from him.

Hello Jonathan,

Do you think there would be any benefit to the UK govt having press briefings similar to the White House ones? The Downing Street Press Secretary addresses the lobby correspondents I believe but it's not televised as far as I know.

Having watched the recent exchange between CNN's Jim Acosta & Stephen Miller on immigration & also Sarah Huckabee Sanders replying to questions on the bill & e.g. Scouts, do you think this would be a useful addition to communications , aside from PMQs?

@JeremyCorbynsSugarBowl

What, if any, do you think are the common themes between Brexit and Trump? Why have the Anglophone countries gone so nuts? And is there any hope left for humanity?

Obviously whole books are being written on this theme, as it's such a major question. A key factor is surely the sense that the system has failed - especially in terms of sharing society's wealth fairly - and those who have been left out, or left behind, so long feel ready to embrace anything which smashes the status quo and promises something different. Trump did that and so did Brexit

@Fiderer

Hello Jonathan,

Do you think there would be any benefit to the UK govt having press briefings similar to the White House ones? The Downing Street Press Secretary addresses the lobby correspondents I believe but it's not televised as far as I know.

Having watched the recent exchange between CNN's Jim Acosta & Stephen Miller on immigration & also Sarah Huckabee Sanders replying to questions on the bill & e.g. Scouts, do you think this would be a useful addition to communications , aside from PMQs?

Interesting idea -- you're right that PMQs is the reason we've not had this before. My sense is that it's better to have the party leaders themselves debate each other each week, but it's not an either/or choice. The one word of warning I'd have is that this alone would not ensure total transparency: journalists would continue to have discreet, off the record chats with Downing Street. They'd just take place immediately after the televised briefing, once the cameras were switched off ;)

@bookcrook

Hello Jonathan

Since you wrote the book, Trump has appointed several generals to key government positions whereas in the book, the military are the good guys. Do you think Trump's generals are likely to be a steadying influence? And/or do you think this is shaping up to be a military coup?

Thanks!

Trump seems to trust only two types of people - members of his own family and generals. He has appointed the latter to key posts to an exceptional degree. That is alarming in a civilian democracy.

And yet, I find myself feeling, like many others, that - given the quality of the other kind of people Trump tends to appoint - these generals might indeed be a steadying influence. Take Kelly. We hear that he threatened to resign once FBI Director Jim Comey was fired - and that he had an informal agreement with Defense Secretary Mattis that one of them would always be in Washington, to keep an eye on a president they feared could do something dangerous.

This is uncanny for me, because there is a remarkably similar dynamic between Kassian and Bruton, the two senior figures in To Kill the President. I am aware that this is uncomfortable terrain for liberals: hoping unelected members of the military come to the rescue!

"One question per member plus one follow-up" - My follow-up follows a comment of yours ;)

Do you think Senator Flake's book will have any impact?

@arnoldbarnacles

Hi Jonathan,

The top story on the guardian website at the moment is about the possibility of a second Brexit referendum. Is that really possible? I thought that once we'd triggered article 50 there was no going back?

As it happens, even Article 50 itself can be revoked. The man who wrote it - a British diplomat who is now Lord Kerr - is clear that the country that triggers it can pull it back. So we can change our minds.

Indeed, that's a core democratic idea. One generation cannot bind the hands of the next generation. A democratic society can always change its mind.

What's more, a second referendum might be necessary. That's what Vernon Bogdanor argues in that Guardian piece you mention. He think the votes are just not there in either the Lords or Commons to approve the plan the May gov't is likely to negotiate. It will require a second referendum to give it the stamp of approval.

My own view is that, if public opinion shifts unmistakably, if people conclude that real Brexit - as opposed to the fantasy Brexit that was offered in the referendum - is just going to cause too much damage to the country and to their own lives, then they will demand a way to express that. The obvious - perhaps the only - way to overturn the 2016 referendum is with another referendum that has equal legitimacy. So it's not just possible. It may be necessary.

Biscuit?

@maxliu

Hi Jonathan,

Are you confident that the Guardian will still be around in ten years and, if so, what form do you think it will take?

Thank you.

I am confident, yes. More people read the Guardian now than ever before, in the tens of millions around the world. The form has changed - and is always changing - but Guardian journalism clearly has an audience. As for the form, the phone now seems to be the prime delivery mechanism that people use, but who knows - that too might change. What's interesting is the persistence of print: people still like it and value it. It could be like vinyl - a technology that everyone assumed was heading for the dustbin of history, but which finds a new, younger audience who cherish its authenticity.

@DottyBlue2

Biscuit?

You've stumped me. But we do know he has very conservative eating habits. Wherever he is in the world, all he wants to eat is steak and tomato ketchup. What's the biscuit/cookie equivalent of that?

@MagdalenNoName

I'm the daughter of a German-Jewish refugee and have recently acquired restored German citizenship. I'd be interested to know whether Jonathan feels that UK society has become increasingly undemocratic in a way that can resemble post-1933 Germany?

Don't blame you for wanting a German passport: after Brexit, plenty of people want to have, or their children to have, full access to Europe as a place to live and work. But no, I don't think that there is any comparison between the UK now and Germany then. There are things to lament here all the time, of course - including rampant inequality, stagnant wages and a shrinking economic horizon for the young - but thankfully Britain in 2017 is not close to Germany in that period.

@Gumpendorf

Hello Jonathan. I've enjoyed all your books and have the latest lined up on my Kindle. I'm interested in all the previous questions on current US politics, including whether you think it is possible that Trump will survive and prosper as President.

On the book, why did you go back to writing as Sam Bourne?

Thanks, and I hope you enjoy the web chat.

Thanks so much for what you say about the books. Hope you enjoy this new one...

As for the name, we just found that with the last book - The 3rd Woman - too many Sam Bourne readers didn't realise that there was a new book out and so, with this one, we decided to remove that barrier. I'm extremely grateful for those readers who've been loyal from the start -- like you!