EU Referendum: Webchat with Andrea Leadsom MP, Tuesday 14 June at 1pm

[BojanaMumsnet]

Andrea is currently a Minister of State for Energy and Climate Change, having been promoted from Economic Secretary to the Treasury in 2015. Following the Leave campaign's victory in June 2016, and David Cameron's resignation, she became one of five candidates for the leadership of the Tory party.

She was elected as the Conservative MP for South Northamptonshire in 2010. Andrea says her three areas of personal interest are reform of the European Union, reform of the banking system and establishing a network of parent-infant psychotherapeutic support through a charity, PIP UK.

We were lucky enough to host a webchat with Andrea Leadsom in the lead-up to the referendum - you can read the questions and answers here.

(And just FYI, we do have Q&As from other referendum webchats and from other points of view: as always we did our level best to give both sides a fair and equal hearing!)

Peace and love,
MNHQ

Dear Andrea
Thank you for responding to the above questions. However on your response on WTO it seems that your view directly contradicts what the WTO Director General said. That is that if the UK leaves the EU we would have to renegotiate our relationship from scratch and that there would be new tariffs - potentially to the tune of an additional £5.5bn to the costs of trade.

Also in contradiction to several statements by Germany and France as well as their potential self interest in terms of preventing the next exits from the EU.

Do you not think then that leave have not properly assessed the risks if that is really your view on trade?

Many thanks

But do you agree that free movement of people cannot be part of the deal?

@BojanaMumsnet

• I can only agree with what Hotandbothered has written, especially as the Leave campaigners seem to be concentrating more and more on immigration. All members of my family who are still working have been advised by their employers that their jobs are more secure if we stay in the EU [these are multinational companies by the way]. If we leave can you guarantee that they will have jobs in the future? And, what will small employers who rely on EU markets do if they do not have the finances to open up new markets in other countries, which I believe JCB [who are supporting 'Leave'] have been able to do, as they have the money to do so. Will small companies be financed in some way? (Tegan)

Great question Tegan. It’s my experience as a Mum, and my hopes for my children and all our children, that guides me on this issue… as well as my 25 years in the City before coming into Parliament. There isn’t a crystal ball we can look into to guarantee what the future holds - Remain or Leave - but what is for certain is that the youth unemployment rates on the Continent are disastrous - up to 50 per cent across Southern European countries like Greece and Italy.

I think we should be listening to people like James Dyson, perhaps our greatest living inventor / entrepreneur and Anthony Bamford of JCB diggers, our biggest UK manufacturing company, as well as the thousands of small business owners who are backing Brexit. They are confident that a Vote to Leave won’t affect their businesses, and that jobs will continue - many business owners say that the EU hinders rather than helps them trade.

A good example of where the EU’s appalling performance in negotiating free trade deals with the rest of the world is the report by the EU Commission that shows we have missed out on up to 300,000 new jobs that could have been created if the EU had managed to sign free trade with just five global economies.

On your second question, about small employers who rely on EU markets, let’s be very clear here. 99.9% of all businesses in the UK are small or medium enterprises, 99.3% are small businesses. Only 8% of the UK’s small businesses export to the EU yet 100% adhere to EU regulations. In a recent survey 75% of SMEs said they want the UK to take back control for negotiating free trade deals. There is a global market of 6.9 billion people outside of the EU (with 80% of the world’s economic value!) and a whole world of opportunity to be explored.

Thank you. Many people dismiss the times as murdcoch controlled. I am a leave voter but feel the leave team need to do more to get across rights won't be affected. Frank field has helped enormously too with his.. Vote for the poor, leave peice. Many people think if you vote leave you are nasty and small minded, little Britain. I say it's little Europe mental alty

People dismiss Dyson as someone who moved manufacturing out of the UK and who wants to strip workers rights.

@Lottielo

Hi Andrea

My question is this:

Would a vote to leave be the catalyst for some other countries to pull out of Europe? If so, would Russia pose more of a threat to a divided Europe and arguably weaker Europe?

Thanks Lottielo. Actually, I don't believe it would be a catalyst for other countries to pull out. Many of those in the East will remain because of their genuine desire to look West rather than East, and also, because they are big beneficiaries of EU money. Those in northern Europe benefit hugely as manufacturers from the European Single Market which favours manufacturers over service providers. But the key reason the EU won't break up as a result of Brexit is because 18 of them share a single currency, a single central bank and a single banking regulator. It would be incredibly more complicated and potentially disastrous for Euro to break up, which is why such efforts have been made to keep Greece inside, despite the disaster this has created for the Greeks whose economy has lost 25% of its value and whose young people are experiencing 50% unemployment.

My personal view is that if we vote leave it would provide the wake-up call the unelected Commission needs to force them to deal with the massive hardship they are inflicting on the citizens of Europe in pursuit of their European super-state.

Dear Andrea

I notice you've responded on the jobs issue - but surely you cannot guarantee any such thing.

In fact, the companies like JCB and Dyson are really in the minority when they say it won't affect jobs. The CBI believe that nearly a million jobs will be affected.

It also does not surprise met that JCB supports leave given that the European Commission stood up to illegal competition practices of theirs (linked to distribution networks/ resale prices) and fined them.

Lets also be clear that those small businesses that export to Europe in the future will still need to comply with EU regulation - how do you expect to deal with future EU legislation when Britain is no longer a member? How much influence will you have?

People who want to leave are mostly Passionate about it. People are very angry and so many have told me they can't wait to get to the voting stations on the morning. However stay are more reticent and often say.. I vote in but with heavy heart. So if we remain what will happen to the angry desperate people whose lives have been adversely affected by immigration and all the rest?

A question from @aimsgrace on Twitter:

"Andrea so far you are the only person to make me wonder about #Leave. I'm 99% voting Remain. #EUFederalArmy real? If we leave, isn't there more chance of an EU Federal Army that will then weaken NATO? We lose our veto if we leave?"

Thank you for the response on trade Andrea, but I'm afraid I find your assertion that Britain can have its EU free-trade cake and eat it too deeply unconvincing.

Those who say European politicians won't allow tariff-free trade are forgetting most of them have general elections coming up. They will know starting a trade war with the UK will harm their workers more than it will harm UK workers.They would be severely punished at the ballot box

This is very worrying, because it suggests that you don't really understand the domestic politics of France (at least, France is what I know, being French and all).

For starters, whatever happens the UK will still technically be in the EU by the time of the next presidential elections, so there will be no negative economic effects in France to speak of.

Also, domestic political pressure will be to show FN eurosceptic voters that actually, there is nothing to gain from leaving the EU, and a whole lot to lose.

In addition, public opinion is very hostile to what is seen as Britain's incessant claims for exceptions and special treatment.

Finally, you are underestimating (not considering at all, from what i can see) the French and German political commitment to the EU as a project. Allowing the UK to get away with a sweet trade deal and nothing to pay in exchange would be the start of the entire project unraveling, as EU leaders well know. This will not be allowed to happen.

@nearlyhellokitty

Dear Andrea Thank you for responding to the above questions. However on your response on WTO it seems that your view directly contradicts what the WTO Director General said. That is that if the UK leaves the EU we would have to renegotiate our relationship from scratch and that there would be new tariffs - potentially to the tune of an additional £5.5bn to the costs of trade.

Also in contradiction to several statements by Germany and France as well as their potential self interest in terms of preventing the next exits from the EU.

Do you not think then that leave have not properly assessed the risks if that is really your view on trade?

Many thanks

Thanks for your follow-up. If you are referring to the Newsnight interview I did with Pascal Lamy ex-DG of WTO, then I can tell you that the interview was on a complete misunderstanding. His assessment of the UK's trade negotiation was that we would not impose tariffs ourselves. It took me half the interview wondering what on earth he was talking about to realise he was referring to a paper written by an economist who is not part of the Vote Leave campaign! Anyway, the fact is that the UK's preference will clearly be to continue with tariff-free trade and so it will be for EU member states to decide to start a trade war (which is clearly against the interest of their own workforce) because if they impose tariffs we would do likewise. I hope that clears this up for you.

Anyway, the fact is that the UK's preference will clearly be to continue with tariff-free trade

sorry for following up again, but - just to be clear, this means you would be ready to accept free movement?

since the EU has made it repeatedly and abundantly clear that free trade and free movement came as a package deal, and that this was a core principle they would not consider going back on.

Hi Andrea
I'm referring to the speech made by the current DG of the WTO - Roberto Azevedo on 7 June.
www.wto.org/english/news_e/spra_e/spra126_e.htm
Kind regards

@GraceGrape

Many "leave" voters agree that leaving the EU would cause economic pain in the short term but this would be worth it for benefits in the long term. What, specifically, do you believe these long-term benefits will be? How would the government support those in the interim, whose economic well-being is directly impacted by leaving the EU and the generation of young people due to enter the jobs market in the next few years, when the economy is suffering from uncertainty?

Thanks - a really great question. I'd like to answer some other points about the immediate aftermath of voting leave in my reply to you.

On June 24th, nothing will have changed. All of the thousands of EU directives and regulations that we have ever agreed to are enshrined in UK law, so it will take legislation to revoke and repeal any of those laws. As is clear there will be a period of up to two years during which time all EU treaties will continue to apply to the UK before we will finally leave. During this period Government will work on:

1. continuing tariff-free trade with the EU
2. a "presumption of continuity" for all free trade agreements we are currently party to as a member of the EU
3. free trade agreements with other countries we currently do not have agreements with
4. immigration rules (safeguarding all who have moved here or to Europe whose position will be totally secure) once we finally leave
5. co-operation on areas around extradition and intelligence sharing

In the short term, I believe voting to leave will have little effect on our economy, but I would give a massive health warning here that NOBODY can predict the future! In the longer term, again my crystal ball is not perfect, but I would set great store by the likes of JCB, Dyson and all the SMEs who employ 16 million people in this country that the economic future would be brighter out.

One key factor is that taking control of our borders will allow us to manage the current unbearable pressure on school places, doctors and our housing market. These have a huge impact on people's well-being so it's closely linked to their sense of economic well-being. Of course, the competition from young job-seekers coming from Europe has, according to the Bank of England, also held down pay at the lower end and for those just starting out, so easing that pressure will be good for jobs and standards of living.

One final thought - there will be an annual £10bn independence dividend if we leave. That's the money we pay to the EU currently that we don't get back in any shape or form. It could be used to boost our NHS, to reduce VAT on fuel bills, to provide greater support for international trade. There are lots of choices and it's a vast sum of money!

@Spinflight

Hi Andrea,

Well done in the debate. I don't recall being so impressed by a politician previously relatively unknown to me before.

Could you comment on the impact a leave vote would have upon our fisheries, and by extension our fishing villages and small ports around the entire coastline? Do we know what the value per year of the fish taken ( stolen!) from our waters are currently and how would this cash help to transform our rural communities?

Thanks Spinflight for bringing this up and for your kind words!

I think that the Common Fisheries Policy has been one of the biggest disasters for the British fleet, and has done untold damage to some of our coastal communities. Cornwall, one of our poorest regions in the UK, is a beneficiary of EU regional funding (our own money coming back to us via Brussels by the way!) for precisely this reason! EU policy has wreaked havoc with our fishing industry, and it is horribly ironic that they now get given handouts from the EU to survive.

Now, to be fair to the EU, they don’t set the quotas - this is done by the North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission. But the rub is, just like when negotiating free trade at the World Trade Organisation, the UK doesn’t have a seat at the table - the EU speaks for us! So when people wonder why France’s cod allocation from the Celtic sea and surrounding area was 5500 tonnes in 2015 whereas the UK’s was a meagre 834 tonnes, you have to consider whether being forced to give our fish to the French (or whoever!) is fair.

So in answer, a Leave vote would give us the ability to take back control over our fishing stocks in our coastal waters, helping to continue the regeneration of our poorer UK regions. Importantly, Vote Leave have today said that we would expect every region, group and recipient of EU funding to continue to get that money after a ‘Leave’ vote in the EU referendum. Read more about it here: www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/leave_ministers_commit_to_maintain_eu_funding

Key points in his speech are that the UK would be in a relatively weak position (and this is clear in any case since the size of your market directly impacts power in trade negotiations - and we will move from being part of the EU single market to being by ourselves), the negotiations will take years to reestablish the UK as part of the single market and there would likely be a heavy tariff burden.

e.g. in addition "if you need to complete a deal quickly when the other side can wait, you are negotiating from a very weak position. So, on this basis, it could take quite some time before the UK got back to a similar position that it has today in terms of its trading relationships with other countries."

Dear Andrea
I'm interested to see that you believe that the position of UK immigrants in Europe will be totally secure. Can you tell me on what basis that is? It seems to be something that you are in fact unable to guarantee, at least until the negotiations are finalised and this could take years.

For example QC George Peretz argues that the right to free movement "actually unpacks into a range of rights. How many of them would be protected? A Brit in the Dordogne may continue to have the right to live in France, but would they also have the ongoing right to seek a new job, buy a new home, use public services and pay taxes like a local, have their spouse join them, and so on?".

@PregnantAndEngaged

What initial and long-term effects do you believe Brexit would have on our economy? Better In campaigners suggest we would experience economic shock if we leave

After 25 years in finance, 4 years on the Treasury committee and a year as City minister, I have lived through a number of systemic crises. Sterling crashing out of the ERM, Barings Bank going bust, the Asian financial crisis and then the disastrous banking crisis of 2008. These were serious threats to world stability and there was a serious risk of economic meltdown.

I do not believe that voting to leave the EU is at all similar to these systemic events. There's an old City saying "buy on the rumour, sell on the fact". What it means is that traders position their portfolios ahead of an event - whether it's a General Election, quarterly jobs data, or an inflation report. Once the event happens, they plan and aim to take their profits and then move on within the new reality. So the volatility is beforehand and once the decision is taken they move on and markets calm down. Now I agree that this is a big event, but it is not a systemic crisis.

There's been a lot of scare-mongering about how the prospect of Brexit has affected the markets. In fact, US dollar-Sterling exchange rate was 1.45 in February; earlier this week when I last looked, it was 1.45. Euro likewise, currently 1.26 to the pound, which means the pound is pretty much unmoved since 2014. Also, the scares of our economy dropping like a stone are simply swept away by this week's GDP figures showing our economy grew by 0.5% far exceeding expectations and with manufacturing booming!

@Chalalala

Anyway, the fact is that the UK's preference will clearly be to continue with tariff-free trade

sorry for following up again, but - just to be clear, this means you would be ready to accept free movement?

since the EU has made it repeatedly and abundantly clear that free trade and free movement came as a package deal, and that this was a core principle they would not consider going back on.

Of the 50 free trade agreements that the EU has with other countries, only the ones with Switzerland, Norway and Iceland have free movement!

The EU is making all these noises at the moment to try and terrify British voters into voting to Remain. The EU’s main point is that to stay in the single market we would have to accept free movement; my point is that we shouldn’t stay in the single market! We wouldn’t want to! What has it done for us, a service-based economy, whereas the single market is for manufactured goods! Great for the Germans, less good for us!

Thanks for coming on the show.

I understand MPs have a defined benefit pension scheme? Presumably you are part of such a scheme. In which case your pension won't be linked to stock market fluctuations in the event of Brexit. Nor are you likely to be out of a job.

Will you share your salary and pension with others who stand to lose their jobs and pension incomeif we Brexit?

#Remain

@nearlyhellokitty

Hi Andrea

Thanks for joining this Webchat. I would like to know what your view is on why Leave has maintained the '350 million is sent to Brussels' as a key message, emblazoned on the bus when this is simply not true?

Surely it is critical that voters take their decision on the basis of the facts?

I'm so glad you raised this! The Office for National Statistics says that the UK's contribution to the EU last year was £19.1bn. That's £367m a week. The point is that this is a gross sum. The EU has agreed to give us a rebate of £4.8bn and the EU also gives us some subsidies for farmers, universities, space science and to our poorer areas. Key to this, is that the EU decides whether we get the rebate and whether we get any subsidies. It is not in our control. As things stand, the EU is massively over-budget on its current Multi Annual Financial Framework which runs from 2014-2020. This is because of massive, up to 50%, unemployment of the under-25s in southern Europe as well as the disastrous migration issues. They would normally be reviewing the budget with a view to recouping their overspend from EU member states, but I gather they've decided to leave that until later this year

The UK is currently the third biggest contributor but it's well-known we will overtake France (lucky us) because our economy is doing well, relative to others in Europe.

So in conclusion, when we vote leave, net of the rebate and the subsidies, the UK will have a £10bn per annum independence dividend to spend on our priorities.

@Millyonthefloss

Thanks Andrea, I won't be here on Tuesday. But my question is. Will it be easier or harder for exporters to sell to the US after Brexit? And will there be more support for SMEs from government?

Hi Millyonthefloss!

I don’t think it will make much difference at all in honesty, Remain or Leave. The UK and the US are each other’s largest source of foreign direct investment, supporting approximately one million jobs in each country. The US is also the UK’s top export destination, and provides huge growth opportunities for our fantastic British businesses.

I've really enjoyed answering your questions and (without wanting to sound patronising) they are some of the best I've seen. I really hope I've done them justice and thanks for chatting to me.

Best,

Andrea

my point is that we shouldn’t stay in the single market!

Ah, ok, thank you for clarifying!

Of the 50 free trade agreements that the EU has with other countries, only the ones with Switzerland, Norway and Iceland have free movement!

Yes, and I believe they are also the only "free trade" deals that include services? (and not even financial services in the case of Switzerland)

(in fact I'm starting to think that "free trade" is a bit of a misnomer for FTAs such as the one concluded with Canada, which also doesn't include services!)

Given that UK exports massively rely on services, including financial services, isn't this a very important detail?

Indeed I find the emphasis on services strange since the UK's financial services are dependent on access to the EU Single Market -

"35pc of the EU’s entire wholesale financial services activity takes place in the UK alone. London, with the support of the regions, acts a gateway to the EU single market for international firms who choose to base themselves here. Half of all European headquarters of non-EU firms are in the UK."