Still unsure about climate change? Have questions you'd like to ask a real live climate scientist? Join us for a live webchat with Dr Emily Shuckburgh, Monday 8 December 12.30 - 1.30pm

[KateHMumsnet]

As UN climate talks take place in Lima in an attempt to get agreement on how to cut carbon emissions worldwide, join us to ask your questions and discuss climate change with leading climate scientist Dr Emily Shuckburgh.

Dr Shuckburgh heads the Open Oceans research group at the British Antarctic Survey. She is also Chair of the Climate Science Communications Group at the Royal Meteorological Society and is a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences. She has acted as a scientific advisor to the UK Government and is a member of the Natural Environment Research Council's Strategic Programme Advisory Group.

Please join us in welcoming Dr Shuckburgh on Monday 8 December at 12.30pm, or post your questions in advance on this thread.

My question for Emily:

Can you describe some of the different problems that you encounter when doing expirimental/theoretical work compared to your roles as an advisor/part of a committee and if there is anything you have learnt in one which you applied to the other which helped?

Thanks.

Can you tell us about your experience of being a woman academic in this field? Lots of women academics on MN talk about their experiences of being held back, either because they're women or because they're mothers, woudl be really interesting to hear whether your field has been welcoming and inclusive

Good afternoon everyone. I'm here in the Mumsnet offices, ready to answer any of your climate questions!

Hello

Can you give us the idiot's guide to what's happening in the oceans and why, and why it's important for the global climate?

@fiftieshousewife

How are the talks going in Lima? I've not seen anything about them, must admit. Are they making progress?

Hi fiftieshousewife -- as you note there are big climate talks going on in Lima right now. Progress with these international talks always seems horribly slow, but there is probably more optimism now than there has been for a long time that we are starting to move towards international political agreement on this issue. There were significant announcements a few weeks ago from the US and China who have both pledged to act to limit their emissions and this has set the stage for other countries to follow. Its hoped that the main outcome from these Lima talks will be progress towards putting together some kind of agreement to be signed at the next talks in Paris in December 2015.

@Merguez

Why would anyone be unsure about climate change, when the scientific establishment is virtually unanimously agreed that it is happening, and is due to rising carbon emissions caused by mankind's influence?

So, I'd like to ask if she thinks there's been a rise in climate scepticism in the past 5 years and if so what's fuelled it.

Hi Merguez -- There was a big international report on the state of scientific understanding that was published last year (the IPCC report for those who know). That concluded that "the human influence on climate is clear". So as you say, there is virtually unanimous agreement amongst the scientific establishment that climate change is happening.

You're always going to have scepticism about topics where the ultimate conclusion of the science is that people have to change their behaviour, and that can be uncomfortable. We've seen that in other instances as well. But the reality is that, as humans, we have been influencing our climate. Unless we change our behaviour, we will continue to do affect climate into the future, and we will find ourselves living in a very different world.

Hello Dr Shuckburgh. It's interesting that CHina is now moving a bit in terms of emissions pledges. Do you think it's doing enough? What's your opinion on how the balance of reduction should fall between developed and deceloping countries? Do you go along with the argument that the developed nations went through their carbon-heavy dirty development stage and that it's unfair not to allow developing nations to do the same. Ie do you agree that it's the developed nations who should do most of the heavy lifting in terms of carbon reduction?

@caramelshortbreadnowplease

Hi Dr Shuckburgh!

I think there is a lot of information out there and this can be confusing. How could people be helped to understand where to turn to and how to question science constructively?

Are there any good blogs/columnists/magazines you can recommend?

Hi caramelshortbreadnowplease -- There are various organisations who've put together websites and reports about climate change. The Royal Society (this report is really helpful), the Royal Meteorological Society, the Met Office, the Committee on Climate Change, and actually the IPCC report itself.

Hi Dr Shuckburgh!

I am a card carrying believer in human influence on climate change and it's great to see you here.

What would you say are the best things we as 'little people' can do to reduce our impact? I know it's mostly industry that needs to clean it's act up, but every little helps

@halfdrunkcoffee

MNHQ, thank you for hosting a webchat on this very important topic. I hope something of substance will actually come out of COP20.

My question for Emily:

How are rising CO2 levels and the melting of the Arctic ice cap likely to affect the chemistry of the oceans and marine biodiversity?

Hi halfdrunkcoffee -- About a third of the emissions of carbon dioxide each year get taken up by the oceans; that's making the oceans more acidic. In the ocean around Antarctica, we've already started to see the first signs of that more acidic ocean damaging some of the marine life. Around the coast of the UK, we have one of the world's great cold water coral reefs and there are big concerns that it might be damaged through increased acidification.

In addition, the changing ice environment in both the Arctic and the Antarctic is impacting marine life. For example, again in the oceans around Antarctica, around the Antarctic Peninsula, we've seen a decrease in the amount of sea ice. We believe that that has affected the small shrimp-like krill, whose numbers have significantly decreased in recent years. Everything eats krill - the seals, the whales, the penguins. And so there are strong knock-on effects. There is one island called Emperor Island that used to have 200 breeding pairs of Emperor penguins, but now it has none.

Oh and what do you think about fracking? (Two questions, sorry MNHQ )

@MoreBeta

I'd like to ask what would happen to her research funding if she came out and openly questioned whether climate change was happening.

Hi MoreBeta -- Research funding is allocated for projects that investigate particular aspects of our understanding of the climate. For example, I have a project that has recently started that is looking at how carbon dioxide is soaked up by the ocean around Antarctica. See the question above as to why that's important!

The allocation of research funds is really competitive and very rigorous. We have to submit a research proposal that is reviewed by international experts (usually about half a dozen), and then a panel judges all of the proposals that have been submitted, together with their international reviews, to decide on how the funding is allocated. Only about 1 in 5 proposals are ultimately successful. Because the nature of the research is to look at specific problems, whether or not the project is questioning climate change is really not relevant to the funding decision.

@ClaraSky

I hear this winter is going to be wet and wild like last year.

Can we expect our winters to be full of rain, rather than snow from now on?

I would like the possibility of a white Christmas and this is looking less and less likely!

Hi ClaraSky -- Well the big thing from last winter was the flooding, and of course not just last year but in 2012, 2007, 2000, etc. Although each flooding episode has slightly different meteorological causes, it is the case that the risk of certain flooding events is greater as a consequence of climate change.

I have a research project (and in fact I'm looking for a PhD student if anyone is interested!) to look at whether or not the big changes we've seen in recent years in the Arctic - in particular the dramatic decrease in Arctic sea ice - might be having an impact on our weather. There have been some suggestions that this effect of climate change has counter-intuitively been leading to some of the very cold winters we've had recently.

@Angeleno

Welcome to MN Dr Shuckburgh!

My question is this: what single thing do you think we could all do to reduce global warming? Is there a small change that we could all make that would have a serious impact?

Hi Angeleno At the end of the day, we need to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. That's the big thing. Each of us can find ways of reducing the amount we individually use - turning down the thermostat, insulating our houses, putting on jumpers, driving a bit less, putting solar panels on our roofs, etc each to their own! But we can't do it in isolation. We need businesses to provide us with the products to live in a low carbon world, and we need our political leaders to take action, too. So another important aspect is to put pressure on business and politicians to act.

Aaaand, I just realised that I asked a question that was asked before.

Whoops!

@stickymousemat

Can you tell us about your experience of being a woman academic in this field? Lots of women academics on MN talk about their experiences of being held back, either because they're women or because they're mothers, woudl be really interesting to hear whether your field has been welcoming and inclusive

Hi stickymousemat -- I have an 18 month old daughter, so I know all about the challenges of juggling motherhood and being an academic. It has been welcoming, in fact my daughter is a regular at climate science conferences. I fear that her first words may end up being 'anthropogenic' or similar!

It is certainly the case that there are not many women at the top of climate science, and in fact many areas of science. But there are a lot of excellent women rising up through the ranks. There really is a responsibility of the scientific community to ensure that women are encouraged and supported in undertaking the challenging juggling act.

Welcome Dr Shuckburgh. I'm getting the feeling you don't want to engage too much with climate sceptics (don't blame you in the least) but woudl be really interested to hear what you thought about the 'climategate' nonsense re the UEA emails - how it was presented in the press and the effect it's had on the public's engagement with climate science. It seems to me it had a really nasty effect and is still referred to by people who don't know much about the actual science as being proof that AGW is some sort of conspiracy.

@lapogus2

Hi Emily, two questions:

1. Here's the last 10,000 years temperature from the GISP2 ice core proxy - snag.gy/tJ7z6.jpg - how can you be so certain are you that the recent warming is not just a continued recovery from the Little Ice Age?

1. Bjorn Lomborg recently said:

"We live in a world where one in six deaths are caused by easily curable infectious diseases; one in eight deaths stem from air pollution, mostly from cooking indoors with dung and twigs; and billions of people live in abject poverty, with no electricity and little food. We ought never to have entertained the notion that the world?s greatest challenge could be to reduce temperature rises in our generation by a fraction of a degree." Source: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/bj-rn-lomborg-says-that-the-un-climate-panel-s-latest-report-tells-a-story-that-politicians-would-prefer-to-ignore

Given this, and the many billions the CO2 emission reduction strategies will cost us all (by means of increased energy costs, which hit the poor the hardest), do you really still think that climate change is the biggest concern facing humankind?

Hi lapogus2 -- Over long time periods, various factors (in particular changes to the amount of energy we receive from the sun) have naturally changed our climate, within a set temperature range. And carbon dioxide levels have similarly varied within a set range. But the recent carbon dioxide levels are vastly outside the range they have been for at least 800,000 years. And so it is clear that the recent change is not part of the natural cycle.

You also asked whether climate change is the biggest concern facing humankind. This is not an "either/or". All the issues you note are highly interconnected and without addressing the causes together, inaction on one would undermine action on another. So for example, if we didn't take action on climate change, the impacts would threaten poverty alleviation in many developing countries who are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events.

@weeklyshopping

Hello Dr Shuckburgh

What's your opinion on the major party leaders when it comes to climate change - Cameron, Clegg, Miliband, Farage and Bennett? Can you give them each marks out of ten?

Hi weeklyshopping -- Not sure I want to give them marks out of ten! David Cameron and Ed Miliband were instrumental in bringing about the Climate Change Act in the UK, which was the first piece of legislation of its kind in the world, and commits us to reducing our emissions by 80% by 2050. And by setting up the Committee on Climate Change, to advise on the Act, the UK has shown great global leadership in terms of ensuring a robust connection between the scientific evidence base and the policy. However, the science is clear about the urgency of the challenge and strong political leadership is going to be needed over the coming years to ensure we meet these targets.

@APocketfulOfSpondulix

Very pleased to see this topic!

I would like to know how emissions can be curbed when the developing world is starting to become wealthier and demand for cars and commodities like beef and soy are rising.

Hi APocketfulOfSpondulix -- This is a big challenge and in fact, it's one of the major debating points of the political negotiations in Lima. Of course, the developing world wants to develop, and everyone aspires to a Western lifestyle. The key, however, is that development in the future does not have to follow the same path as in the past. The opportunity is for innovation to be deployed so that we can all, in developing and developed countries, embrace a low carbon future.

There was a big report on the economics of climate change that came out earlier this year, that highlighted:

"Countries at all income levels have the opportunity to build lasting economic growth and at the same time reduce the immense risk of climate change. But action is needed now."

So we shouldn't have to choose between economic growth and tackling climate change.

I have followed Quaternary geology and geology in general and there have been massive changes in climate outside of any human interaction.

How sure can we be based on a limited data vs millions of years? set that we are picking up signal rather than noise?

@Ecocalmist

I am one who sees no sufficient reason to be unduly alarmed about our impact on climate. My question follows. Given the decadesmlong history of emotive environmental cries of alarm and crisis that have proven to be nonexistent or grossly grossly exaggerated, why should we not be sceptical of this current one given that the climate system itself has been contradicting the few verifiable claims made by campaigners to date?

Hi Ecocalmist -- If I look at the history of environmental cries of alarm, I see acid rain, the ozone hole, DDT, whaling, illegal wildlife trading, biodiversity loss, deforestation... it's a fairly grim list and I don't see anything on that list that is either nonexistent or grossly grossly exaggerated.

Fortunately, we have started to make progress in reducing some of these environmental challenges. For example, the ozone hole has now reached its worst extend and it's starting to recover. But that is because international agreement was reached in the Montreal Protocol to phase out the use of the chemicals that were destroying the ozone.

Climate change is real, addressing it is urgent and failure to take action will substantially increase the risks we face as a society in the future.

As a mother, I am concerned that my daughter is going to live through this century and potentially will grow up in a very different world. All of us will, through our own actions, determine her future world. The onus is on us.

Emily - thanks for your reply. But the recent increase in temperature is not unprecedented or even unusual in the Holocene - snag.gy/tJ7z6.jpg - what evidence do you have that CO2 is the cause of the 0.7C rise in the last 120 years? Correlation is not causation?

@oricella

Thanks for joining - I'd like to ask a question not so much about climate change (I'm with Kitten above), but I would like to know how you feel about accusations that climate change is all just an elaborate hoax, and that as a scientist you are either actively duping people or are sadly misguided by the liberal crowd. And how scary is it that people like Inhofe can have such a powerful voice on the issue of climate change?

Hi oricella -- Last question I'm going to answer here because we've run out of time, but yes it is frustrating! As scientists, we've been articulating the risks posed by climate change for more than 30 years. And sometimes it feels as though our voice is simply not heard. But the climate has continued to change through that time.

The science tells us that at our current rate of burning fossil fuels, we have less than 30 years left before we can burn no more, if we are to keep temperature rise within what is considered to be acceptable levels. I only hope that politicians won't fritter the coming decades away in the way they appear to have frittered in the past!

The risks are real, but we do have the innovative capacity to address this challenge and to leave a better world for our children and grandchildren.

Thanks everyone for some really interesting questions, that have covered a big range of topics. I think my overall message is that there are big risks, but there are also big opportunities. We can either look at a future filled with doom, gloom and extreme weather, or we can try to shape our world through whatever means each of us has, to generate a cleaner, greener future for all!