Do you remember what it was like during the 2008 crisis?

[bushproblems]

I’ve seen a few comparisons of today’s economical situation and the 2008 crash. I was in high school at the time so heard a lot about “the credit crunch” but didnt really know what it meant.

Are we in a worse or better position job wise, cost of living etc than my parents were? How were you affected?

Im at risk of redundancy so I’m freaking out about the job market and the astronomical cost of basically being alive!

If you look at the chart below real wage growth has stagnated since 2008. Factually things have got worse since 2008.

The Government did have a choice, they could have not funded public sector wage increases, not funded or kicked the can down the road on PO and contaminated blood compensation, not increased SEND funding, not increase childcare funding and not increase defence spending.

All of which would have been politically unacceptable and electoral suicide for the newly elected Labour Government- but they did have a choice.

The reality is that increasing debt is not an option, increasing taxation will further slow the economy and cutting spending is politically unacceptable from the Labour backbenchers.

Which leaves us with the default option of managed economic decline.

The only way out is to slash public spending (which really means the NHS and welfare budgets) to a politically unacceptable level, reduce the budget deficit to near zero and cut taxes to boost the economy. All of which is never going to happen because no political party would ever get elected on such a manifesto and even if they did they would never be elected again and the next government would get voted in on increasing spending and going back to a budget deficit taking us back to square one.

It was fully funded fully costed anyway. Apparently. So they lied and now their policies are hitting jobs. Especially for young people.

It genuinely amazes me how little knowledge anyone has of any of these facts. Literally get no coverage in any form of media

It's not much help, honestly, because you're repeating the same inaccuracies.

You're assuming that reducing tax rates is the same as reducing tax revenues. I am making the point that it is not always thus. Some tax changes stimulate business creation which stimulates growth. Investment is sorely needed but it's not like we don't have infrastructure that exists. We just don't have a focus on business. Business leaders themselves are saying the same thing.

I am also not saying that changing taxes is the only thing we need to do. I simply made a comment upthread in response to someone (possibly you) that lower tax rates do not always equal lower tax revenues. I am not suggesting it's a complete fix in and of itself.

Government is all about choice.

Reeves was boxed in due to the ridiculous promises they made not to raise taxes on working people. In the end, it's always working people who suffer. As they are now with the jobs market in the toilet.

And she wouldn't have had to raise income tax by 5 or 6% - a 2% rise would have raised £20 billion a year.

The NICs increase was hoped to raise £25 billion but thanks to behavioural change and other costs will only raise between £14 and £18 billion - and has knocked employer confidence to boot.

Labour does not understand business or growth. Tony Blair's government was an outlier in the Labour project - not to mention, being fortunate to be in power during a time of global prosperity.

I remember delivering presentations and referring to the triple-dip recession. For me, I was childless, in an ok job and wasn't really impacted. (I was already in an industry that didn't give bonuses unless you were in sales, and there were never standard annual pay rises in any of my jobs. You're basically on the same salary you go in on, unless you get a promotion or jump ship for a better paid job elsewhere.)

I worked at Jobcentre plus for many years and that time was horrendous. So many people who had never been unemployed in their lives had to claim. I remember the massive queues outside our local Northern Rock bank - mainly pensioners who were very anxious about their retirement fund. I know my mum and dad split their savings between banks after this

Well, its not really a choice if they "choice" is one that in unacceptable.

Pay rises had already been agreed, as was the promises made on PO Blood scandals.
They could have reversed the NI cut but that would have funded just 25% of commitments.

I'm a little more optimistic, so defence spend can kick start manufacturing, we can move closer to the EU, that will help exporters, though we do need at least the Tories to agree on this or the EU wont trust any new Govt to not tear up deals....

On shore green tech manufacturing, solar, wind...

Roll back the 2030 phase out of ICE cars... i'd suggest 2050, just been speaking to the carers who come to my neighbour, they are worried about being able to afford a cheap run about, as ICE cars are steadily increasing in value.

A pp said unemployment in 2008 was terrible, the rate went from 5% to 6.2%... it did rise to 8% in 2012.

For me was brilliant! My VR mortgage reduced significantly.

Maybe it depends on how many young people you know trying to get work. If that’s not an issue or you’re not in the private sector at all maybe it looks more aligned with Labour press releases.

Labour does not understand business or growth. Tony Blair's government was an outlier in the Labour project - not to mention, being fortunate to be in power during a time of global prosperity

But the Tories do.....??? 14 years of pretty much no real terms growth.... much of which by their crazy Brexit, then there is Bojo and "Fuck Business" and Truss wrecking gilts and in turn, growth!

Pls explain why we've had more growth in the last 19months than in the 19months prior to the election?

Sunak, who i believe you re a fan of, had 2 quarters of negative growth in Q3 and Q4 of 2023 - a recession.

Labour, now are in a time of deep global uncertainty, given that and AI, employment has held up well, inc with Graduates, with v similar rates to the USA but higher than the EU.

Yes this!

If a business is viable and treats its staff well, then it will do well.

https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/25878942.milner-york-hits-80-staff-retention---bucks-hospitality-trend/

Except young people are feeling it with job losses and higher youth unemployment. Do you know anyone looking for work?

Babcock Marine are looking to take on 1600 graduates and apprentices this year alone.
BAE are taking on 2100 this year.

Neither are Public Sector

One of the highest grad unemployment rates is in Computer Sciences, no one predicted AI would wreck this sector a few years ago, though some will always seek to blame Labour.

I started uni in 2008 which was like a little bubble but, looking back, everyone who could went to uni. My friends who didn’t couldn’t find full time jobs, a friend got an apprenticeship and we all thought he’d landed on his feet. Part time jobs were still easy to get though.

My older sister lost some of her savings in an Icelandic bank and I remember the queues outside Northern Rock. The banks tightened up credit checks, they used to practically throw student overdrafts at you.

I don't think the UK has recovered since the bankers did this in 2008. The fact they still haven't been held to account is appalling.

Except that we haven't had more economic growth in the last 19 months than we had in the 19 months prior to the election, as the bar chart below shows.

What it does show if you go back far enough is a slow managed economic decline by the Conservatives and continued by Labour.

As for the technical recession in Q3 and Q4 2023 this was caused by high energy prices (consequence of Ukrainian war) and slower manufacturing.

Its also worth pointing out that the cyber attack on JLR has cost £2 billion and on its own knocked 0.1% off GDP

The difference between first half of 2024 and post GE is a shame. That’s Labour policy impact.

@rainandshine38 being on interest only for so long was not our choice! We must have been on IO from 2004 - 2015. It was only supposed to be for a few years but the negative equity situation after 2008 scuppered that plan.

I’m so relieved that we are now repayment and with a much more favourable LTV.

Also over paying to try and knock several years off the 19 left to go…

For me it was hard to get work as I was temping. I did manage though.

I agree re wages. Most haven’t increased in line with inflation at least in my area admin.

It’s always interesting to read these replies as they show how differently people can experience the same time. I was expecting people to say it was overblown because I remember expecting friends or my husband to be made redundant (my area of work wasn’t affected) but nobody we know was and we all kept on having children, paying our mortgages, having holidays. Whereas now all our friends are still fine and at the top of our game but really worried about our children’s prospects.

I’m guessing our parents were worried about us, ie their children then (and also in 1990 recession) in the same way parents are worried for their children today.

To be fair the first two quarters always have higher growth than Q3 and Q4. Also I believe that it would have also declined anyway if the Conservatives had won. But I do believe that it would have declined less based simply on the fact that the Tories tax raising and spending electoral promises were lower than Labour. But there is a big difference between manifesto promises and actual delivery.

But what is clear is that the outcome of both parties is a slow managed economic decline.