New Secondary Schools for Richmond 4

[BayJay2]

Welcome. This is the fourth (or perhaps fifth) in a series of threads about Richmond Secondary Schools.

The discussion was originally triggered by Richmond council's publication of its Education White Paper in February 2011. It started with two parallel threads here and here.

In November 2011 the most active of the original two threads reached 1000 messages (the maximum allowed) so we continued the conversation here.

That thread filled up in May 2012, and was continued here.

It's now November 2012, and once again we're at the start of a new thread ....

200 spare places? Where did you get that from? That was the Council's figure for 2011. The Council's forecast for 2013 was 122 spare placeswww.richmond.gov.uk/consultation_on_use_of_clifden_road_site_january-march_2012.pdf, and that included 100 places in a free school, which was not approved . That leaves the Council with 22 spare places this year against a total capacity of 1820 which is way below the Audit Office's accepted margin of spare capacity of 4-5%, especially in a situation where pupil numbers are going to rise. That is before the Council revise the forecasts as they accept they must to take account of the fact that a new school in Kingston is not approved, and take up in Academies is actually exceeding what was forecast. You can see why the Council is supporting the new free school?

mmptsa: Re yrs of Dec-12 19:13:28: Lord True is also right in pointing out that the academies were wrongly handed over to the national chains (Mcdonalds of education)..

The (Labour) government of the day made assigning the schools to an outside trust who could relaunch them as ?Academies? a condition of proving capital funding to rebuild a school. So the [Lib Dem council] went along with this, reluctantly, to get the money as it didn?t see any other way of getting it and the schools needed to be rebuilt. The choice of external sponsors was quite limited, I recall, and Edutrust, the first one for RPA had to withdraw because of financial irregularities.

Kunskapsskolan have 25 schools in Sweden, 1 in the US and 4 in the UK, 2 in this borough, 1 in Suffolk and 1 new one (this week) in Northamptonshire. So the jibe about Mcdonalds is wide of the mark.

In terms of branding, strict adherence to standard methods, imposition of ruthless conformity and number of schools world-wide it seems to me it is the chain of Catholic ones that compares to Mcdonalds. The main difference is that at least Mcdonalds is open to all.

The Coalition government widened the term ?Academy? to describe all maintained schools that have converted to ?direct grant? status, a status which had been introduced by the 1944 Act but abolished in 1970s. No external sponsor is required: they can retain their existing board governors and carry on as before but free of any local authority control [but also deprived of any external support if things go awry].

It is confusing - deliberately so no doubt - that these two different types of schools have the same label.

"and only 67 (including Catholics from out of borough) have actually signed up for St RR's 150 places as first preference"

Its going to be very interesting to see how those numbers evolve. The new Clifden school has some stiff competition from outstanding community schools, and, as we've discussed ad infinitum, Catholic parents will have more freedom than ever before to choose between different types of school. If St RR doesn't become an automatic first preference for the majority of borough Catholics within a few years of opening, the Diocese may have created a rod for their own back. No doubt there will be lots of lobbying of parents to persuade them to choose it, but how will they respond to that? We'll all be watching with interest.

Most people wanted community schools and not national chains, but the Lib Dems did not listen. It seems the free school is now understandably releasing the pent up demand.
Heathclif - looking at the applications for 2013, its likely there could be 150- 200 spare community places in 2013 at the 3 academies and some at Clifden Road. This may go down to 100 - 150 in 2014.
It could be argued that taxpayers will want to see investment in academies fully realised before funding more capacity.

The problem has been that the academies do not seem to have any accountability to the communities they serve. They have not shed the baggage people wanted them do. Had they engaged the community they could have become community schools.
mmptsa- those spare places are sadly just on paper. Parents deserve choice if their needs are not met.

mmptsa Are you arriving at your statistics based on first preference? There will be 216 parents who don't get first preference just on the Middlesex side. There will doubtless also be a considerable number who will put Tiffin as first preference who won't get in. We have no way of knowing how many spare places there will be until the computer has completed it's complicated algorithm to assign subsequent preferences on distance to those that have not got their top preferences. The Academies may well fill up with those who have put them as lower preferences (or not included them as a preference at all)

However with 1458 in borough applications and the Council forecasting 346 out of borough applications (a reduction of 100 from 2012 but the actual impact of removal of links and the number of out of borough applicants attracted by St RR - the general consensus being that initial applications will be from out of borough Catholics because in borough Catholics have good established options - remains to be seen), there have been 1804 applications for 1720 places. I think the risk of there being no places for some of those children is greater than the likelihood of 300 evaporating out of the borough.

The Academies may well fill up with those who have put them as lower preferences (or not included them as a preference at all)

• that seems very optimistic!

What has changed significantly in the last 12 months to justify that ? Its more likely that parents will go out of borough or private if they do not get their top preferences.

By September 2012 Hampton Academy had filled 188 of its 210 places. In 2013 its PAN will reduce to 180, yet it has a similar number of applications, so it is highly likely to be full next September.

By September 2012 Twickenham Academy had filled 135 of its 180 places. For 2013 its showing a 28% rise in first preference applications, and a 7% rise in overall applications, so it will certainly be fuller than in 2012. Its hard to say exactly how full, but certainly the fact that Orleans Park and Teddington are significantly more oversubscribed than last year will work in its favour.

So its reasonable to expect that by September 2013, HA will be full, and TA will be near-full. Provided they both get a favourable Ofsted report early in 2013, there's no reason why they shouldn't both be completely full by September 2014.

P.S. For reference, here are the in-borough cohort sizes transferring out of our community primaries between 2011 and 2017 (taken from 2011 school census data):

2011 : 1705 children transferring out of year 6
2012 : 1766 children transferring out of year 6
2013 : 1749 children transferring out of year 6
2014 : 1914 children transferring out of year 6
2015 : 1964 children transferring out of year 6
2016 : 2104 children transferring out of year 6
2017 : 2148 children transferring out of year 6

There's a reduction in cohort size for 2013, which accounts for the drop in the number of in-borough applicants referred to in para 7 of the most recent admissions report. However, its obviously temporary and we can expect a big rise in applications for 2014.

TA showed only satisfactory progress when Oftsed visited it last time. Even if they have a full inspection they will at best get Good. As indicated earlier in the thread about GC parents make their own judgement and rely on feedback from others more than a Ofsted.

If you are used to top class teaching and discipline standards in our primaries its hard to settle for something less. Consistency and continuity into an outstanding secondary is what most parents what.

Jo, I don't disagree with you. However, all the evidence shows that HA and TA are filling up despite their interim reports. Their new buildings are a big factor in that. If their full Ofsted reports are positive, and word of that spreads, they will rapidly become oversubscribed.

Jo You know I agree with you entirely about the issue of the number of parents who feel forced to move or go private (or indeed rediscover their Catholic heritage) because they do not have confidence in the Academies, and therefore give the Council a cushion for it's complacent, and now as far as Nick Whitfield and Lord True's personal inclinations are concerned, indulgent education strategy.

However not everyone is in a position to pursue those options, both Orleans and Teddington have 100 more applicants this year than last so sheer force of numbers is as Bayjay highlights filling up the academies.

mmptsa says Lord True is right on the money in his letter on education

Lord True's letter in RTT www.richmondinclusiveschools.org.uk/files/view/press-cuttings/LordtrueRTTletter06Dec.pdf is at best misleading and disrespectful of RISC.

1. There was no pledge to create a Catholic VA school with exclusive admissions in the Tory manifesto
2. Neither was there a pledge to create a Catholic school as a priority to meet demands of Catholic parents on the only available site at Clifden Road - for which £ 10m was paid to meet the "need" of local school places.
3. There is however a pledge in the Coalition agreement to promote inclusivity in faith schools that his govt has now broken. This has serious national implications.

Lord true also again fails to show that he understands the core of RISC argument - that is about inclusive admissions in faith schools. You may also want to see this article written by Rabbi Jonathan Romain www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/jonathan-romain/faith-schools-richmond-op_b_2230019.html

BayJay, there are more up-to-date figures in the 2012 census here. School level statistics are in a zip file.

The 2012 data puts numbers slightly lower - the equivalent of one pupil per class leaving since the 2011 census. Still a big jump between 2013 and 2014.

2013: 1710 (last year Y5)
2014: 1854 (last year Y4)
2015: 1903 (last year Y4)

Also, the data shows that 15% of last year's Y6 primary cohort were from other boroughs. In our secondaries, 30-35% are from out of borough. The 2012 numbers at the four previously linked Kingston primaries are:

2013: 238
2014: 237
2015: 273

These data imply growth at 4.3 % p.a. and a doubling time of 17 years. Hounslow numbers are growing at the same rate.

So the challenge for the planners is to forecast when this growth will slow down and then stop - it cannot continue for ever:

A trend is a trend is a trend
The question is: will it bend?
Will it alter its course
Through some unforeseen force
And come to a premature end?

Blimey Chris, you've gone all poetic. Anyone would think it was Christmas or something!

Muminlondon, yes, thanks for that. I was being lazy and using the figures I'd already downloaded to show the trend. I've downloaded the 2012 ones now too, so here are the full figures up to 2018 (when there's another big increase, so certainly no let-up in the trend) ....

Year : Children transferring out of Richmond maintained primaries
2012 : 1731
2013 : 1710
2014 : 1854
2015 : 1903
2016 : 2094
2017 : 2168
2018 : 2302

The 2018 number pushes the growth rate up to 4.7 % p.a. and the doubling time down to 16 years.

Thanks everyone for the data and analysis - all makes sense . When will the Council update the slippery forecast they made last year ?

It's worth being clear where in the borough the extra pupils would be coming from. The primary expansions are listed on the website. Aside from demand from newcomers or those moving from the private sector, there seem to be extra classes and bulges will be feeding through to secondary as follows:

2014: Heathfield (Holy Trinity bulge) [Hounslow: Oriel]
2015: Vineyard/SMSP bulge [Kingston: Fern Hill, St Paul's CE bulge]
2016: Lowther, Holy Trinity, Orleans (St Elizabeth's/St Mary's/SMSP bulge) [Hounslow: Ivybridge, Kingston: Latchmere bulge]
2017: Heathfield (#2), Buckingham, Stanley (Collis/St Osmund's/Marshgate bulge) [Kingston: St Luke's bulge]
2018: Chase Bridge, SMSP (Vineyard/St Mary Magdalen bulge) [Kingston: Latchmere]

From the 2011 Census data released today:

The borough?s population = 187,000.

The %s by religion are: Christian 55; No religion 28; Religion not stated 8; Muslim 3; Hindu 2; and Sikh Buddhist Jewish Other religion 1 each.

Any suggestions as to the % of the Christians that are Catholic?

No idea. But interesting data. Fewer Polish born residents in Richmond compared to Ealing or Hounslow (e.g. 1.1% compared to 4.1% in Hounslow and 6.4% in Ealing). More originating from US and Germany (1.4% and 1.2% respectively).

The top 4 religions for Richmond and our neighbour boroughs:
Richmond: Christian 55 No religion 28 Religion not stated 8 Muslim 3
Kingston upon Thames: Christian 53 Jewish 26 Other religion 8 Hindu 6; and No religion = 1
Hounslow: Christian 42 No religion 16 Muslim 14 Hindu 10.

Some rates for Outer London: Christian 50 %; No religion 19 %; Religion not stated 7.
And for England & Wales: Christian 59 %; No religion 25 %; Religion not stated 7.

2001 rates for England & Wales: Christian 72 %; No religion 15 %; Religion not stated 8.

. . The BHA has now calculated that if the change in Christian belief over the decade to 2011 continues at a linear rate, Christians would be in the minority by the census question from September 2018.

This is a really significant cultural shift said the BHA chief executive, Andrew Copson. In spite of a biased question that positively encourages religious responses, to see such an increase in the non-religious and such a decrease in those reporting themselves as Christian is astounding. Of course these figures still exaggerate the number of Christians overall ? the number of believing, practising Christians is much lower than this and the number of those leading their lives with no reference to religion much higher.

The BHA said the census figures were used in parliament to justify the extension of faith schools . .

It is time that public policy caught up with this mass turning away from religious identities and stopped privileging religious bodies with ever increasing numbers of state-funded religious schools . . They are decreasingly relevant to British life and identity and governments should catch up and accept that fact.

Chris, those Kingston figures again:

Christian 52.9%, Muslim 5.9%, No religion 25.7% (not Jewish - 0.5%) and 4.7% Hindu.

Worth pointing out that Hounslow also is 9% Sikh in addition to 10.3% Hindu, 14% Muslim, 42% Christian (and 15.9% no religion) - that may have been the justification for a Sikh free school. I don't want to see any more segregation by religion. Apart from the cultural divide, there's no flexibility when demographics change.