Why are you dreading a Tory government?

[Swedes]

Social mobility under Labour has fallen to the levels experienced in the 1950s. That means if you are born poor, you remain poor and if you are born wealthy, you stay wealthy.

I heard this morning on R4 that the NHS is experiencing the worst funding crisis in its history.

I could go on but I'm sure you get my drift.
Labour have had over a decade to fulfill their promise that "things can only get better". It's time for a change.

Can you please give me a few good reasons why Labour should remain in office?

TD, I do agree with most of what you say. Though I would like to add;
You are right the Govt will make money on the loans/share options of the banks. If they are repaid at the right time. For example the recent payback buy Lloyds to the Govt. I think (and I may be wrong) that £1.7 billion of that was in shares. As I said I hope the Govt make the right call on that and when to sell.
My point about the Russian loan was that it was part of the scheme of reckless lending for which the Govt had to bail out RBS. £2.5 Billion is a lot of money and if RBS had been more sensible, maybe £2.5b less would have had to be spent by the Govt.
Totally agree about the conservatives, of course they would not have done anythng differnt.
Legislation on lending, yes the Tories could have done it but Labour have had 12 years of Govt and cannot really hide behind that one.
The reporters in the Telegraph have been warning of a downturn for the last couple of years, saying the housing bubble had to burst and that the banks etc were going to find themselves in trouble. Though I think they were probably surprised at the scale of the downturn. I used to read the Guardian but a while ago switched to the Torygraph but I have to say the Business pages are usually spot on in their reading of the economy.

BigGitDad- UK commercial Property has been in recession since summer 2007, just as an example. US sub=-rime was already months in. Insiders knew then we were in deep trouble. Including BoE, Govt, Inv banks. Yes some were burying their head in the sand or hoping for the best. So it is funny to hear those who started "predicting" cash in 2007 claiming market foresight. The market crash started in summer 2007! But the speed of the adj did surprise some as you say.

It is a mess but I think history will say that GB et al didn't predict the crash but handled it well. Evenso, I am still predicting a massive Cameron victory altho' I appreciate the fact that GB has earned his tag as the ultimate comeback kid.

I am predicting now that the next recession will be caused by a MASSIVE slide in the USD (and EUR, GBP) to lesser extent. Who knows?

Explain your prediction in more detail TD, don't worry I won't hold you to it!!

Nothing complicated: just massive fall in dollar when China (and Brazil, Russia, India) finally diversify away from dollar and dollar is no longer reserve currency. Arguably, supply of credit in the West was funded by these countries accumulating dollar reserves. Currently China is not talking down the dollar as they are too invested in it. However, as they broaden their investment/reserves then the dollar should unravel. To some extent we had a bit of this but I am talking a much more radical and fast devaluation producing another shock to confidence which is what, after all, causes a slump.

Can you now give me a precis date when this will happen? Just so I can put a bet on the slump of the dollar!!
I know what you mean and I have read about that too. That truly will mean a change in the world order. I wonder what that will mean for the rest of us.

Well it depends on central decisions made by China state planning. I can't imagine they will pull the plug on the dollar until the world economy recovers. So I am guessing in 7yrs time. Sorry can't be precise on Chinese state planning

If you are looking for a Currency bet then IMO bet on GBP strengthening against Euro. Euroland's problems more hidden than UK and still to come. Much volatility in GBP vs EUR but if you go long GBP short Euro at anything around 1.17 and happy to wear the volatility, then you should be able to make money within 6months. Target 1.20 by year end and 1.25 within a year IMO. If you don't have a spread betting account then IG Index or Etrade are on-line brokers. You are probably faniliar with how this all works others I can email you operational things to look out for.

Yes I have thought that the pound is due to make up the lost ground against the euro. It seemed to me that alot of that was due to the Eurobank being slow to cut interest rates. Now I gues it will be the Bank of England who will be the first to raise them.
Unfortunately I am not a betting man, but I do agree with you on which way the pound is going to go.

That said if the spread betters are expecting the pound to strengthen accordingly wouldn't they factor that in on the bet? Or am I misssing something?

BigGitDad - the pricing of spreadbetting on fx rates, shares etc. works differently than spreadbetting on sport events etc.

With sport events, the bookmaker/broker sets his/her pricing depending on the bets received from punters. So he ensures that regardless of the the outcome the odds are set in such a way that he makes money. So the book maker is hedged accordingly.

With spreadbetting on shares, fx etc, there is of course futures and swaps and cash market that trades fx and shares etc. So the broker/bookmaker simply covers himself in the futures market, for example. So the book maker's price is effectively a retail price for a fincial instrument that is available in the wholesale financial markets. The bookmaker is just quoting the wholesale market price (traded with investment bank or exchange or such like) plus a tiny margin for profit.

The question usually asked at this point is whether the futures price in the market is a prediction and therefore why bet against it. I will only answer that question if you are indeed interested so as not to complicate things.

rgds

Im dreading a Tory government because I cant stand George Osbourne and his big pudgy face!

I also dont think the Tories have any real policies, anything that can actually be pinned down and backed up. It all seems a bit wishy washy to me.

Also, I think the Tories seem to look after their own, and I am neither rich or posh!

I know the Green Party wanted to get rid of Ofsted, which seems a crazy idea.

sorry if this has already been said, Its a long thread and I have just skimmed.

I also wonder what makes people think that George Osbourne /David Cameron would have handled the recession any better?

Frasersmum123- you make some good points but try not to judge Osbourne on the fact that he looks like the cat who got the cream.

He is a bright young turk but I can see that he comes across a bit smug.

Yes, my worry is that the Tories are ultimately about looking after the comfortably off folk and I wonder who is looking out for the vunerable in society. Their attitude to women an minorities (though improving under Cameron) says much to me.

And the Tories were calling for less regulation not more so it is a bit rich for them to say that they would have regulated more. And Brown/Darling's response to the crisis and world leadership was actually very very good. They will make a nice profit from those bank shares, I tell you.