'Unprecedented' rise in measles

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link

The BBC this morning have a story about an unprecedented rise in measles cases over the last year.
I'll C+P to save you clicking the link

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There is an "unprecedented increase" in measles cases in England and Wales, experts report.

Data from the Health Protection Agency showed there were 1,217 cases of measles from January to November 2008.

And 75% of the 115 cases diagnosed in November were outside the traditional hotspot of London - in the north west, west midlands and south east.

The HPA's Dr Mary Ramsay said the rise in cases was due to "relatively low" MMR uptake over the past decade.

well and be damned

stuffitllama.

the risks associated with MMR have never been proven...because there we're no risks..all 4 of my children have had the MMR, because i took the advice of my family doctor.

I think also the fact that the introduction of the vaccine was followed by a massive reduction in measles cases in the first place, suggests that reduced MMR uptake has something to do with measles returning. Whether or not you can pick holes in the herd immunity theory, it did kinda work. And it's because of that that infant mortality has dropped so much compared with say 100 years ago.

A few years ago, before the MMR media storm, there were hardly any cases of measles and that includes in small babies who hadn't yet had MMR, and older unvaccinated children too. That is because there was less measles around to catch, and that is because of vaccinations. I'd like to know what's dodgy about that sequence of cause and effect (and I am open-minded to admitting I'm wrong, if you'll explain how).

stuffitllama, I don't agree with it being safe and thats why i won't let ds2 have it.

daftpunk - the risks associated with the MMr have never been fully investigated. The science as originally quoted still stands (and even the prosecution at Wakefield's GMC trial have stated this).

so-called replica studies have been done, which have not examined the same premise at all.

You do have to ask why the government is seemingly so worried about replicating the study exactly?

27 a regular poster, has given me good advice in past. Very tricky issue and outbreak worrying. i thought only a tiny minority of children had no MMR or single measles jab. Am i wrong? Or are many of these children vaccinated? i guess they are supposed to get a milder form then?

Will stake my wig that this thread was started by someone in the DoH public relations office as part of their working day.

cross posted ruty

snowleopard measles cases down by 99pc before the vaccine was introduced

however if you're looking at timelines how about the increase in autism since mmr was introduced

But why and how, and what is wrong with herd immunity theory? And if measles' decline has little to do with vaccination, why do you think it is now returning - there must be another reason.

I don't believe that any medical intervention is 100% safe for every single child.

All 3 of mine have had the MMR and had no ill-effects. It was safe for them. That doesn't mean that it automatically follows that it's suitable for every child.

Ds1 reacted badly to the DTP (as it was then). His brother and sister were absolutely fine. No one can say for sure how a child will react to any immunisation.

Oh and stuffitllama - I have researched that statistic "measles cases down by 99pc before the vaccine was introduced".

It appears that no, measles deaths fell, by about 95%, in the century or so before the vaccine was introduced, for obvious reasons - better detection and healthcare. Still relevant but not what you said. You do need to be very careful and accurate if you are going to try to use statistical facts to pursue a convincing MMR-related argument, as there is so much misunderstanding and misrepresentation in the whole debate.

And generally speaking, the risks are much smaller than the risks from the disease being vaccinated against. If not, that should be detected and the vaccination programme stopped. That's why it is important to keep track of bad reactions to vaccines and monitor their levels of course.

so Dr Ramsay said 8 out of 10 children have had one course of MMR before their 2 nd birthday. So at least 80% of children had MMR. Then, many children have had single measles vax, i don't know how many but i could guess at 15%. So actual numbers of unvaccinated children very small perhaps? I know herd immunity makes sense, but if most parents who don't go for MMR go for single vaccine surely there is a flaw in the argument? Genuine question.

From Dr Ramsay: But she added: "We shouldn't forget that the children who weren't vaccinated many years ago are at real risk." So why are they getting measles only now? And who are these older unvaccinated children?

Sorry, didnt mean to cause any suspicion or make people think I was a troll, I just saw the story on the BBC website, and it caught my attention, so I thought people here would be interested to see it too.

i'll never understand why some parents are still clinging to the "MMR causes autism" theory, even when it's been proved untrue....why? i agree, nothing is 100% "safe" but the MMR does not cause autism...it just doesn't.

Just seen this post:

"Will stake my wig that this thread was started by someone in the DoH public relations office as part of their working day."

The reason I didnt get back sooner is because I was out doing the weekly shop with kids in tow. Working in the DoH public relations office sounds a bit more relaxing.

sorry

it hasn't been proved untrue daftpunk

"i'll never understand why some parents are still clinging to the "MMR causes autism" theory, even when it's been proved untrue"

daftpunk, please show me where this has been proven to be untrue.

then Google hannah Poling, and have a read of a proen link between MMR and regression into autism.

oh yes I do accept your correction.. when I wrote it I thought I really ought to be checking this.. you are quite right ..actually maybe you aren't, I haven't checked, but I trust that you did

however I don't see how it helps your argument

shall I post the figures later .. not a bad idea perhaps

Thats OK stuffitllama. It was a nice thought. Could imagine sitting back in comfy office chair, feet on luxurious soft carpet, cup of coffee and biscuit in hand, casually plotting next publicity campaign. Not that looking after the kids isnt great, but you know...

Ruty, thank you for your comment