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Interest rates up to 5.75 per cent

93 replies

layman · 05/07/2007 12:37

I think there will be another one after this, perhaps more. The days of low interest rates are over for now. Good for savers though.

OP posts:
noddyholder · 06/07/2007 09:52

I hope so although we did it for other reasons too.Dp took a great leap of faith in letting me do this but I am almost sure we have done the right thing.

NoodleStroodle · 06/07/2007 09:54

Didn't realise as high as 15% sub-prime. That is going to be really painful then for everyone

MascaraOHara · 06/07/2007 09:56

Can someone explain about this 15% sub-prime thingy pelase?

sorry, I feel very sub-intelligent reading the conversation that you guys are all having but I really need to understand this.

noddyholder · 06/07/2007 09:56

Lots of ex la right to buy are specialist lending although some people say that any highly mortgaged property on interest only is at risk too.

hecciesmum · 06/07/2007 09:57

Just a phase - not sure what it was called- have just had a summary of the main conclusions from a client and read snippets from it in the FT....personally I can't get hold of their research directly...

If I can track it down will let you know what it's called

NoodleStroodle · 06/07/2007 09:59

Sub-prime lending is lending to those who would not normally be lent money by the high street lenders - usually those in unsteady income without good credit history and at a high multiple and the pay back is of course a very high rate of interest to begin with...

hecciesmum · 06/07/2007 10:02

Mascara - sub prime is essentially a definition to describe the portion of the market that cannot every hope to afford to pay their mortgage off...i.e. that they are already at their very limits in termsof affordability.

Every lender has their own definition of what constitutes a sub prime borrower, so theests of how much of the market it constitutes are pretty flexible and open to debate.

In the USA the banks were lending to people on very attractive initial 6 month fixed packages which then would go to floating - many of the people who lent could only just afford it on the initial package - let alone at a normalised market rate - hence the crash.

UK borrowers have generally been a little more sensible, but there is definitely a significant proportion of the market who are getting increasingly likely to default

hecciesmum · 06/07/2007 10:03

Noodle described it better!

justaphase · 06/07/2007 10:04

The main point is that there is a major crisis in US subprime mortgages.

There was an article in the FT yesterday actually, arguing why subprime UK is very different to subprime US.

Hecciesmum do you know the name of the broker?

Btw I also work for an investment bank and our economist sold his flat and moved into rented in expectation of a property market crash five years ago. (Don't pity him, he gets a huge bonus)

noddyholder · 06/07/2007 10:04

Years ago lenders used to have a chart which showed what your repayments would be at different rates and how that would impact your daily living but this all stopped and now it is about what the max you can get is at the cheapest initial rate which is a recipe for disaster.

MascaraOHara · 06/07/2007 10:04

Oh thanks both of you for very clear explanation. I'm releived to learn I'm not sub-prime

NoodleStroodle · 06/07/2007 10:06

Justaphase - please can you explain the difference between UK & US subprime (words no longer than 2 syallables please!) or do you have link to article ?

hecciesmum · 06/07/2007 10:11

Just a phase - was Credit Suisse.....not sure if it was in a peice of research on the banks sector as they have been pretty bearish on the mortgage lenders, or whether it was in a general ecnomics round up thingy....

let me know if you can get it as I;d love a gander too!

justaphase · 06/07/2007 10:17

The financial regulator will this week raise concerns about the subprime mortgage market which provides home loans to consumers with patchy credit records.

The Financial Services Authority is poised to raise some criticisms of both lenders and mortgage brokers as it publishes the results of its investigation as to whether loans are being correctly sold to consumers by mortgage brokers and banks.

The FSA is thought to have found poor record keeping at some mortgage brokers that meant they were unable to demonstrate mortgages sold to customers were suitable for them.

The FSA?s concern comes as arrears among subprime mortgage customers are currently running at 20 times those of mainstream mortgage borrowers.

Since 2005, the FSA has identified subprime mortgage lending as a ?priority area of supervision?.

In recent months it has intensified its warning to banks that they may be ?taking on substantial risks? by ramping up subprime mortgage lending to customers with patchy credit histories.

The FSA?s concerns come as the US subprime mortgage market experiences its most severe crisis in modern times, triggered by rising defaults and repossession.

Although the UK market differs in important respects from that of the US, Clive Briault, managing director of retail markets at the FSA, said of the US in a recent speech: ?We cannot completely ignore the parallels with our own market.?

Citizens Advice, which is undertaking a nationwide study of the issue, said it was seeing increasing evidence subprime mortgage borrowers comprised a large proportion of the possession proceedings going through the courts.

A study of one county court in Kingston-upon-Thames found that in 2006 one third of the 751 possession hearings related to subprime lenders.

In 2005, 204 of the 612 possession proceedings in the borough?s county court were brought by such lenders, according to a study by the local Citizens? Advice bureau.

Data about subprime mortgages are scarce; the Council of Mortgage Lenders does not even collect information about the level of arrears among subprime mortgage borrowers.

But a recent report by Standard & Poor?s, the rating agency, showed overall arrears and repossession rates in the UK subprime sector were increasing.

The agency?s UK non-conforming mortgage index shows average total arrears increasing to nearly 23 per cent by the end of 2006, from 17 per cent at the end of 2004.

Rating agencies also noted relaxation of underwriting standards in the past five years had meant the sort of borrowers who might not have secured a loan in the past at competitive rates were being accepted. The FSA is concerned rising house prices may encourage some over-indebted subprime borrowers to increase their levels of personal debt by borrowing against their property, in effect placing a one-way bet upon rising house prices.

It reckons even a slowdown in house price rises could ?expose a number of seriously over-indebted borrowers? to problems.

In a recent report, Andrew South, analyst at S&P, flagged concerns about what might happen when subprime borrowers come off two-year fixed-rate mortgages taken out when interest rates were much lower.

These homeowners face the prospect of moving on to mortgages that are at much higher rates.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders points out subprime mortgage lending by its very nature is riskier than conventional mortgage lending.

Customers who take out subprime mortgages often have bad credit records or arrears that may increase the possibility they will default again.

It also points out there are fundamental differences between the subprime market of the US and that of the UK, where lenders have not relaxed their lending criteria so aggressively as in the US.

US, loan-to-value ratios ? which show the loan as a proportion of the value of the property ? have been as high as 100 per cent. In the UK, only 15 per cent of lending is at 90 per cent or more.

Products are also very different and less risky in the UK.

NoodleStroodle · 06/07/2007 10:20

Txs just a phase.
It seems our lenders are a little more sensible than the US - although we seem to be moving to higher multiples but perhaps that's not in sub prime

noddyholder · 06/07/2007 10:21

A lot of buy to lets will come to the market as landlords will see that the figures don't add up.I went to view a maisonette yeaterday in a good road etc which is £900 month to rent but would cost £1600 ish on a mortgage at the current rates

justaphase · 06/07/2007 10:28

I have beentrying to figure out this discrepancy between rentals and interest on mortgages and just can't get my head around it. How does buy-to-let make any financial sense?

NoodleStroodle · 06/07/2007 10:31

Is it that when buy to let sell they were hoping to make a capital gain...
I can't really understand noodyholder's example though - the LL is subbing the rent..

hecciesmum · 06/07/2007 10:32

yeah but maybe they bought it 15 years ago!

NoodleStroodle · 06/07/2007 10:33

Good point Hecciesmum...you are sharp this morning

homemama · 06/07/2007 10:34

Buy to let usually only makes sense these days if you buy a property in a dirt cheap area which despite being cheap, rents easily, such as a student area in a not so nice part of a city.

We're letting out a flat and as of yesterday, out mortgage is now more than the rent we're getting.

hecciesmum · 06/07/2007 10:34

it's 'coz I'm demob happy - going on holiday tonight! yippeeeee

justaphase · 06/07/2007 10:42

But surely it should work like this:

Property prices too high => people can't afford to buy => people go into rented => high demand for rentals => rents go up.

Why are rents so inelastic?

NoodleStroodle · 06/07/2007 10:47

Ok - not sure I hae thought this through...

People buy - interest rates increase - people sell - surely in the first instance people downsize - then to rental BUT Buytolet are selling because interest rates have increased and current rents not covering the mortgage - buy to let properties go up for sale - thus freeing up lower end of market

noddyholder · 06/07/2007 10:47

Rents seem to be pretty unaffected by location and are more about how may rooms you can fill.I am amazed at some of the lettings we are being sent to view as they are all in areas we could never afford to buy in.I think when interest rates were low and prices were less buy to let was a good investment but now you would have to be in it for the long term.we viewed an ex rental for sale last month at 265k it is now down to 237 and still not sold I think there will be a lot of this where LLs just want to get rid.

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