The Royal Bank of Scotland Labour bought back in 2008 was in asset terms, one of, if not THE, largest bank in the world where the Investment Banking arm was still capable of making £billions each quarter, to offset most of the £billions of company/consumer mortgages and loans being written off over those same quarters.
But since then RBS;
- Is now about half the asset size it was.
- Has around half the staff it had.
- Is government owned and governments have a pee poor record of running businesses.
- Has become more of a domestic high street bank, than fee generating Investment Bank.
- Has yet to pay stock holders a dividend since the crash and may not for a year or two to come.
So RBS’s current situation neither appeals to price ‘growth’ and/or ‘dividend’ stock market investors e.g. Pension Funds, who will see limited upside potential of holding this stock.
So those overhanging negatives will be why nearly every international bank peer whose stock prices ‘bombed out’ during the worst of the financial crash, have recovered far better in price terms than RBS - as stock pickers don’t need a government held back Scottish lemon in their stock portfolios, when have a global fruit basket of bank stocks to chose from.
Moreover, the stock market rally began around mid 2009, so is quite mature, and who knows how much further stock market prices will go, beyond say 2017, as global interest rates start rising?
The fact that the UK had 78% of RBS which is huge, the government can only sell it pre placed, rather than trying to smack the dealer bids which will flake very quickly – and the markets know our £5 approx RBS ‘in’ price – should any investors want a limited growth, non dividend paying bank lemon, the price for the 78% of stock overhang was NEVER going to go far above our cost price, if at all.
Therefore what is important is the AVERAGE price we get for the whole 78%, and as the UK divests stock, getting closer to private ownership and paying dividends, RBS’s price will gradually Price/Earnings re-rate itself (higher) to its banking peers.
In summary, like all lemons, buyers need to suck it and see, and establishing price/demand info is an important step within an ‘average price’ end game. IMO.