UK National Debt; ours, our childrens, or grandchildrens?

[Isitmebut]

Although the title may sound alarmist, just looking at the National debt figures over the past 25-30 years, they show that no matter how detailed a government may try to plan several years forward - as they do when formulating their national tax and spend policies – when ours or anyone else’s economy has an unexpected slump/recession, ALL PREVIOUS ASSUMPTIONS CHANGE.

As a basic example, with a sharp fall in employment, tax revenues fall dramatically, unemployment benefits increase sharply, while the governments planned expenditure if left unchecked, increases our annual budget deficit, and increases the accumulation (of those deficits) = National Debt.

The FACT is that recessions (or ‘rainy days’ as politicians would rather call them, than use the ‘r’ word) have the ability to dramatically INCREASE the National Debt, as the recent figures provided in a newspaper shows;

In 1991/2 as the UK entered recession, the National Debt was £190 billion.

In 1996/7 at that General Election, as we were coming out of the recession and the nation was budgeted to balance our tax receipts/expenditure within a few years, the National Debt figure was £403 billion.

In 2009/10 at the last General Election, over two-years into the great recession and running a £157 billion annual budget deficit, the ND figure was £1,073 trillion.

The current National Debt figure (in full) is approaching £1,500,000,000,000 (£1.5 trillion) and the UK has an additional UNFUNDED State Pension liability of over £1.0 trillion not included within the National Debt figure, that comes out of annual budgets on demand, when drawn down.
www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

Clearly while the UK continues to run an annual budget deficit (currently around £91 billion), despite aided by 300-year record low interest rates, the taxpayer is still being charged annually on that National Debt £££interest of £36 billion (which is more than our Defence Budget).

What can future UK generations expect from the State now, never mind in the future if we CONTINUE to run annual deficit economies, when interest rates over the next 10-15 years funding our national debt are GUARANTEED to go up and future UK economic policies and recessions could derail the current UK recovery - and within a few years we could mirror the current slump in Europe.

As after the 2015 General Election there is likely to be another Coalition of whatever permutation, ALL POLITICAL PARTIES need to inform the electorate beforehand with detail of their budget deficit plans without double speak – and if the UK under their watch will be piling up yet more National Debt rather than going into a Surplus with the option of finally paying down the National Debt – we owe it to future generations to DEMAND that political leaders provide a full disclose on what they want to spend that clearly earmarked ADDITIONAL taxpayer debt, on.

P.S. Labour’s Miliband & Balls are therefore no different to Blair and Brown, as they TALK passionately about “different, fairer” government solutions to the problems of ‘the workers’, but as there are NO slippery political short cuts to creating a sustainable economy via a vibrant private sector Labour ideologically opposes.

So history shows their policies actually make things worse, for those they continually promise to help, in the name of ‘equality’.

What's it like in that echo chamber of yours?

Similar to the rollocks I hear every bleedin' day from a clueless political party who had not the FIRST clue even by 2010 HOW to fix their own mess, but have shamelessly blamed the coalition for EVERY measure that they should have took from 2008 onwards - only my rollocks have factual content, not soundbites meant to deceive - and open to anyone to debate/challenge/rubbish, with facts on their own.

Leaving me to post and hoping I won't question the political deceit I see before me, hardly empowers women to make an INFORMED judgement at the next election, or on any other subject, and unlike someone who wants to debate "anytime, anyplace, anywhere", I happy to do it just here.

Where is your constituency Councillor Isitmebut? :)

Hello StickledPink …. Firstly, may I ask if that is the official colour of that condescending ‘battle bus’ trawling supermarkets for female votes, that respond to soundbites rather than look at Labour’s RECORD in power or there current policies in any detail, or just your pet name for it? Lol
Are you that condescending to this board that anyone who can see through (or question) the political rollocks, HAS to be a politician, or linked to a party?

I swear on my children’s lives that I have never been a member on the Conservative Party (or any other political party), the only ‘work’ I have EVER done (in my rather long life) for the Conservative Party was unpaid posting of leaflets through doors before ONE general election where Labour held a thin majority – and that NO ONE in the Conservative Party or apparatus has the first clue WHO I am (unless by underhand anti civil rights means) – now how about you, can you say the same?

'Fess or better still, contribute to the subject and debate/tell me with qualified points, where I’m wrong.

Meanwhile re the Private Sector Labour burdened over 13-years (even after the crash), that PAYS for current/future government spending/employment, that is PAYING OFF the current National Debt, that through extra taxes will bear the brunt of PAYING OFF future Labour-SNP-Plaid.C extra debt plans for the NEXT 5-years – in a volatile economic world (still);

• If small, medium and large businesses that invest/hire are concerned for the future, then WE need to be concerned that over the next 5-years if current government expenditure/services can be paid for without even more debt.

• As if not, EVERY political pledge by every party you here PRIOR the General Election, especially those offering EXTRA ‘funded’ spending and/or 'to balance the books' by the end of the parliament – will not be worth the cost of the leaflets those promises are printed on.

April 2015: ”100 business chiefs:Labour threatens Britain's recovery”

”In a letter to The Telegraph, senior executives from companies employing more than half-a-million people hail Conservative economic policies which they say show that “the UK is open for business”
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11507586/General-Election-2015-Labour-threatens-Britains-recovery-say-100-business-chiefs.html

”The signatories include senior executives from nine FTSE 100 companies and 21 FTSE 250 companies as well as small and medium sized businesses and entrepreneurs.”

Re the Business Open Letter above;

I saw Mr Miliband say on the news that 'they would say that wouldn't they' as the Conservatives are only for the 'few corporations' and people at the top, and that large businesses want lower taxes, but that was NOT what the letter said - and it was signed by small and medium sized businesses, as well as large - and several that supported the last Labour government.

Mr Miliband AGAIN playing some ideological card, AGAIN banging on about Zero Hours contracts (when we don't even know how many people have how many contracts each) and would do well to remember that Labour oversaw the UK from 2008-9 economy when it LOST around 7% of output (GDP), as how did that affect ALL workers, never mind those on Zero Hours or Minimum Wage?

UK Businesses saw sod all help from Labour, but a lot from the Coalition in ORDER to be able to plan ahead with CONFIDENCE, investment and job creation - but Miliband seems ideologically stunted in his ability to see the BIG employment and economic picture, that NEEDS to private sector do dig us out of their financial/economic hole.

In 2014 we were the best performing economy of the major western economies, looking at the EU by far, as these annual GDP figures show;

UK + 2.8%
Canada + 2.5%
USA +2.4%
Germany +1.6%
France +0.4%
Japan -0.1%
Italy -0.4%

This was their Telegraph letter today in full;

"Dear Sirs,"
"We run some of the leading businesses in the UK. We believe this Conservative-led Government has been good for business and has pursued policies which have supported investment and job creation."

"David Cameron and George Osborne’s flagship policy of progressively lowering Corporation Tax to 20% has been very important in showing the UK is open for business. It has been a key part of their economic plan."

^"The result is that Britain grew faster than any other major economy last year and businesses like ours have created over 1.85m new jobs.
We believe a change in course will threaten jobs and deter investment. This would send a negative message about Britain and put the recovery at risk."^

Away from the Oxbridge 'Trot' Student Debating Society and in the real economic world, OUR economic performance and private sector confidence /investment/jobs is what is going to pay down our National Debt Miliband's socialism wants to go on increasing (for unspecified 'investments') - and any responsible government has to both understand the economic facts of what drives a sustainable economy AND be able to get on with those providing it.

A UK government doesn't have to kiss their collective business butt cheeks, just understand their basic everyday problems - and not look to attack them at e-v-e-r-y electoral opportunity, as they did in the past, as they are doing now.

Why we should all ignore that letter in the Telegraph

No, it isn’t an ‘April Fool’, but it’s still a transparent piece of campaigning by people who shouldn’t be doing it. Why should business leader get to campaign politically when charities are banned?*

Many of the 100+ ‘business leaders’ who signed the letter supporting the Conservative Party with a claim that the Tories are good for business (we’ll come back to that) have close – and This Writer means very close – ties to that organisation already. Here’s how one commentator on Twitter thought the Telegraph headline should have looked:

'Tax Dodgers, Tory Donors, and non-Doms: Labour Threatens Britain's recovery'.

voxpoliticalonline.com/2015/04/01/why-we-should-all-ignore-that-letter-in-the-telegraph/

"David Cameron and George Osborne’s flagship policy of progressively lowering Corporation Tax to 20% has been very important in showing the UK is open for business. It has been a key part of their economic plan."

This is ridiculous. When would businesses ever say that they dislike paying lower corporation tax?

Do you think it is likely that the CBI, or a bunch or Tory donors would ever complain that corporate tax is too low?

If you asked businesses if they would like:

• to pay 0% tax

• to do away with the minimum wage

• to get rid of health and safety laws

• to be immune from prosecution for negligence or harm

they would all, of course, say yes.

There is no reason we should take the demands of businesses as the 'correct' way of running an economy, or society. Not only would doing those things be harmful to society, but would prove disastrous for the economy.

Businesses will always welcome perceived short-term gain. So what?

Blacksunday ….. oh dear, oh dear, no wonder with 1970’s anti business trade union ideology, such schoolyard overstatements and basic economic illiteracy, the Miliband Labour Party will drive this economy into the ground, push our National Debt up sky high - and need the Conservatives to fix the nations finances after every parliamentary term.

Re your *”Businesses will always welcome perceived short-term gain. So what?”

All the UK businesses are being practical, not political, based on what they have SEEN over the past 18-years; 5-years of help to create investment/jobs from the Conservative led Coalition, versus the previous tax RISES by Labour from 1997 to just pre financial crash 2006, and continued to RISE after the 2008/9 financial/economic crash – as all those businesses were suffering from the worse economic recession in nearly 100-years, with banks unable to lend adding further pressure.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-389284/The-80-tax-rises-Labour.html

And that fool Ed Balls is STILL blaming the Coalition for the slowest recovery in 100-years, thanks to Labour’s tax rises before the crash, their indifference to businesses problems AFTER the crash, and leaving a hugely unbalanced economy, producing a European wide unprecedented annual budget deficit of £157 billion.

Do you want to know what is really ”short term gain.”?

All this Ball-sian style economic and jobs ‘growf’, paid for by those private sector/business taxes, that while it WILL BOOST GDP, it was as sustainable as the Labour financial ‘bubble’, both destined to crash like a house of cards at the FIRST recession, never mind the worst in nearly a century.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1214001/The-cost-quango-Britain-hits-170bn--seven-fold-rise-Labour-came-power.html

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1358144/Labours-3m-town-hall-jobs-bonanza-employed-deliver-frontline-services.html

Labour keep talking about their "better paid jobs", the UK is apparently currently keeping back for a business hating Labour Party to somehow unlock after 2015, as above, are they all to be the 100% taxpayer funded non jobs again?

How much of that previous Labour style “investment” (they are looking to repeat after 2015 funded with more debt) helped the UK poor, the Minimum Wage low paid, the Zero Hours paid, the abysmal low home building record with a net 3-4 million new citizens arriving – as this is where most of those extra taxes every Labour governments like to SAY will help inequality, actually goes to.

So like it or not, a government as big as it NEEDS to be and the level of services we aspire to, is not possible without a vibrant private sector/businesses, ask the likes of Italy and France if a UK can tax their way to sustainable economic growth, as if its so easy, why are they STILL economically pan-holing?

Businesses are not asking for MORE tax cuts and other help, they are saying what has been done is working, they are just looking for government consistency to plan ahead i.e. a 2015 government without another 80 new tax rises in their first term, and who’s employment policies don’t change in weeks, like Zero Hours government controls down from 12 months down to 12 weeks.

So away from your pathetic socialist anti business rhetoric, PLEASE TELL ME WHERE I AM WRONG ON ANY OF THE ABOVE.

Nobody cares about your Tory propaganda.

One in five of the businessmen who signed pro-Tory letter were given honours by David Cameron and one third are Tory donors

---

One in five of the businesspeople who signed a letter supporting Tory economic policy were given honours by David Cameron in the last few years, while one third have donated money to the Conservative party, an analysis by the Independent shows.

Among the 103 signatories of the letter, published on the front page of the Daily Telegraph this morning, are four Conservative members of the House of Lords – all ennobled by David Cameron.

The Prime Minister also doled out 18 MBEs, OBEs, CBEs and knighthoods to signatories of the letter over the last parliament.

A total of 32 of the signatories are Conservative donors, having donated a total of £9m to the party when family and company donations are taken into account.

Nine of those who signed the letter had given at least six-figure sums, with the smallest donation still well over a thousand pounds.

One signatory is clothing magnate Nick Wheeler, who invested in the same ‘Icebreaker’ tax avoidance scheme as members of the band Take That.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/one-in-five-of-the-businessmen-who-signed-protory-letter-were-given-honours-by-david-cameron-and-one-third-are-tory-donors-10148897.html

blacksunday …. You accuse me of political “propaganda”, yet chose to totally miss THE POINT of what businesses are saying now, _and the ACTUAL TAX RISE RECORD of Labour over 13-years in power, which is WHY they are saying what has been done under the Coalition has been very helpful, please don’t change direction.

Not understanding business problems is WHY the UK lost 1 million factory jobs from 1997 to 2005, during a global consumption boom, 2-years before the crash – so there are REAL consequences for the economy, Productivity and jobs, by ignoring them.
www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/million-factory-jobs-lost-under-labour-6150418.html

P.S. If you want to play silly socialist games trying to deflect from the true motives of the letter, looking at “honours” etc, please remember that it was a recent Labour Prime Minister investigated by the police in Downing Street for ‘cash for peerages’ (the first since god knows when), and as the link below explains, Labour was far more in the pocket of businesses than many on the red team like to CURRENTLY admit.

“Who Runs Britain?” by Robert Peston
www.socialismtoday.org/122/peston.html

The UK cost of borrowing could go a lot higher, eating further into annual budgets/spending.

Based on the current 5-years projections, based on the current governments plans, the COST of servicing our National Debt will rise from £40 billion in 2015/6 and £60 billion by 2019/20, the end of the NEXT parliament.

But the IFS has said that Labour will ADD around £170 billion to our National Debt, and the SNP are demanding an extra £180 billion in borrowing fest, for unspecified ‘investments’, citing interest rates are low, so why not, its not as if they can go up, right? lol

The problem with this theory is mainly two-fold;

• A UK government without the confidence of business will see economic growth stall, so deficits/National Debt goes even higher, and taxes will have to go up if they don’t want to borrow EVEN MORE to pay our services.

• A UK government issuing bonds (called Gilts) to FINANCE our National Debt - borrowing from global institutional investors from 2-years out to 10-years and longer - have absolutely no control on the interest rates those investors demand from UK taxpayers to hold, or buy, the UK’s bonds.

So clearly what these global government bond buyers think e.g. analysts in pension funds, on the UK’s economic ability to cover our bond interest payment and repay the bonds principal amount on redemption, materially affects the yields (service costs) of financing new, or refinancing old, UK government debt – even if the Bank of England keeps our Base Rate at the same level.

And below is what a key global government bond buyer is currently thinking, and it does not bode well for the UK taxpayer now and for future generations, having far more than £60 billion a year of interest charges coming out of future annual government budgets.

BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager, warned that Mr Miliband will create a “constitutional crisis” if he leads Labour into a power-sharing agreement with the SNP, which would leave Britain like a “pre-crisis Spain”.

Now you may think that this is a bluff and will not affect what the UK has to pay to service our current £1,500,000,000,000 (£1.5 trillion) National Debt most party's would see go to £2 trillion by 2020; well markets look to ‘discount’ bad (and good) news ahead of ‘known, knowns’ like a General Election, and it doesn’t look good for the UK taxpayer.

!0-year Government bond yields/interest rates on Friday.

Germany 0.19%
France 0.48%
Spain 1.21%
Italy 1.30%
UK 1.59%

So the markets are starting to reflect that the UK, with the best G7 economic growth for 2014, is a BIGGER RISK than France, Italy and Spain – even though our bond credit rating is much better.

As per fund manager Blackrock’s view above, the markets are starting to price in a very messy socialist (or minority Conservative) Coalition from 2015, and depending on HOW messy it is, that rate in relative terms CAN GO A LOT HIGHER.

On a relatively quiet week where the capital markets that fund our debts saw interest rates/yields of the major economies edge DOWN, the UK’s 10-year bond yields edged UP – when even Greece saw a fall in its 10-year bond interest rate.

‘So what’ you might well say?

Well it is the continuation of a bond market pricing in what our children will have pay in extra interest charges for a 2015-20 unwieldy Labour socialist coalition where ALL (including the Lib Dems) want to see more government debt accumulation – as the markets/bond investors know that only the Conservative Party that has a record of keeping our national finances under some control, but already at a 20 odd seat disadvantage to Labour in England, due to dodgy electoral boundary lines.

So government bond investors in the UK are being faced with a 2015 parliamentary Conservative Party with a minority government that will be outvoted in parliament on EVERY policy producing fiscal/monetary chaos, or frozen out of government COMPLETELY beyond 2020 and 2025, as a UK now with a several party system, is reflected in parliament, with budget deficit denial.

So on Friday Sterling went below 1.46 to the U.S. Dollar for the first time in 5-years, back in the time Labour/Brown/Balls were in UK deficit denial, and the UK 10-year government bonds needed a 5% interest rate/yield to attract investors.

Global bond yields back then were higher than they are now, but back then a UK credit rated by the two main agencies as AAA/AAA, had to PAY MORE to fund their 10-year money than Italy rated AA/A – so how much we’ll have to pay in extra interest, on higher interest rates, for a gaggle of socialist parties running the country, with their own individual agendas, arguing about policies amongst themselves – is in the lap of the gods, so god help our children and their own.

Edward ‘Calcutta’ Miliband, looking for every others parties ‘black holes’ has just opened up a huge one his own, by miraculously pledging to change from the 1997 to 2010 socialist party of spending profligacy - where Brown’s “golden rule” of only borrowing to invest was running a £30 billion plus annual deficit in the good times, even though I can’t see anything large by the way of infrastructure, energy, homes, he actually invested in – to a party of “fiscal responsibility”, even though he has been campaigning to date on a “borrow more to invest” platform.

“Ed Miliband rebrands Labour as party of fiscal responsibility”
”Labour to launch manifesto and challenge claim it would not tackle deficit by unveiling ‘budget responsibility lock’ and guarantee policies are fully funded”
www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/12/ed-miliband-manchester-manifesto-labour-party-fiscal-responsibility

So in 2015 campaigning with Ed Balls as shadow chancellor, who as an advisor to Gordon Brown in 1997 - announced AFTER the election that they would put Housing Stamp Tax up from a Flat 1%, put a ‘black hole’ in our relatively small Gold reserves by selling around 40% at a 20-year low price AND putting a £250 billion plus ‘black hole’ in Private Pensions by taking away dividend tax relief – is NOT going to “borrow a single penny extra”. Hmmm

So surely by default, Labour, similar to 1997, when they ruled out rises in income tax under them, will pay for everything they spend after 2015 with HIGHER TAXES, as this record up to 2006 proves – which carried on up to 2010, despite the ‘cost of living crisis that began in 2008.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-389284/The-80-tax-rises-Labour.html

This is confirmed as apart from announcing large companies Corporation Tax by 1%, unfortunately for the rest of us there will be a piddley tax take;

• On the cash element legislatively allowed within annual bankers bonuses.

• A hike in the top rate of tax from 45% back up to 50%, was estimated to have raised £1.5 billion to lost revenue as they took legal tax avoidance e.g. pension contributions.

• A new non dom tax that could cost revenues.

• A mansion tax already pledged several times, and lower home price mean it’s unreliable to base spending on a firm high end market (especially if non doms leave)that has already slowed down for several months.

On the apparent annual £7 .5 billion tax avoidance clamp down (usually used to hide ‘black holes’ with ( but the coalition has brought in a similar amount over time), I guess will come fro Osborn’s new ‘Google Tax’ ahead of an OECD worldwide tax avoidance clampdown, that even the village idiot in the UK government will raise in the next parliament.

So add all that up and its ££chump change; so with a current £80 - £90 billion annual budget deficit, the probability Labour will alienate all business and slow down or reduce growth/investment/jobs/the tax take – so if they are NOT going to borrow more, as Ed Ball’s has ‘form’ on tax rises AFTER the general election and berating those that told the truth PRIOR to a general election;

June 2010; ”Balls accuses Darling of costing Labour the (2010) election”

”Ed Balls today lays bare his differences with Alistair Darling accusing him of costing Labour the chance of winning the general election with his stubborn refusal to rule out raising VAT.”
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/7825548/Balls-accuses-Darling-of-costing-Labour-the-election.html

In conclusion; Ed Balls with a proven record of excessive tax receipts (as well as tax deceits), WHAT NEW NUMEROUS TAXES can we expect after May under Labour, if they guarantee to reduce the deficit and not borrow?_

We still keep hearing lets "borrow to invest" from Labour and the SNP, which was EXACTLY what Gordon Brown used to tell us from 1997, rather than start paying down our National Debt after our tax receipts/expenditure balanced in 2001 - similarly with no detail.

“Crippling PFI deals leave Britain £222bn in debt”
www.independent.co.uk/money/loans-credit/crippling-pfi-deals-leave-britain-222bn-in-debt-10170214.html

”Every man, woman and child in Britain is more than £3,400 in debt –
without knowing it and without borrowing a single penny – thanks to the proliferation of controversial deals used to pay for infrastructure such as schools and hospitals.”

”The UK owes more than £222bn to banks and businesses as a result of Private Finance Initiatives (PFIs) – “buy now, pay later” agreements between the government and private companies on major projects. The startling figure – described by experts as a “financial disaster” – has been calculated as part of an Independent on Sunday analysis of Treasury data on more than 720 PFIs. The analysis has been verified by the National Audit Office (NAO).”

”PFI’s were the brainchild of the Conservative Party in the 1990s, but were swiftly embraced by New Labour..PFI-funded schools, streetlights, prisons, services, police stations and care homes can be found across Britain.”

”Responding to the findings, TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “Crippling PFI debts are exacerbating the funding crisis across our public services, most obviously in our National Health Service.”

”Margaret Hodge, has spoken of Labour’s promotion of the deals during its time in power: “I’m afraid we got it wrong...we got seduced by PFI.”

Labour's Margaret Hodge has added something else to the recent Miliband mantra "we got it wrong", yet Labour and the SNP want to repeat it.

The UK has an annual several hundred ££££billion sized economy, yet instead of reducing our accumulating National Debt while interest rates are at near record lows, socialism is using that same (record low interest rate) argument as justifying the significantly ADDING to our National Debt BEYOND 2020 - but on what, and on what terms?

OP - this could be an interesting topic, but your hugely overlong posts are, frankly, unreadable. I literally cannot bring myself to finish reading even one due to their length and rather confrontational writing style. May I recommend that you bring the discussion down to more of a layman's level by making just one or two short, clear points per post that actually further the discussion? Otherwise you may well find that you continue to argue with thin air...

Thank you for your advice guinessgirl, I'll expect the same to blacksunday ... and there 'lies' the problem, there is so much one sided misinformation on this board (often heard from senior politicians speeches), repeated again and again - if it wasn't so often repeated (on TV or here), or other posters explained why they believe (in this case) my children should be forced into more national debt, it wouldn't be one sided at all.

Maybe the key issues 'detail' or political party's record don't matter to some posters, more likely the facts hard to get to based on the misinformation they receive daily from politicians which I try to cut through, the problem is this can't be explained in one liners - and for those interested in how I get to my opinion I provide links/salient features.

Right now, I'm sitting here with Question Time on and listening to Harriet Harman state 'the Conservatives will have to cut the NHS', no doubt later she will say 'the Conservatives will privatize the NHS' when Labour's PFI
record was far worse than anything the Conservatives have done.

The UKIP Mr Nutall says 'we have the only costed manifesto of the main parties', yet a big part of the funding will come from leaving the EU, that somehow, 2,7,or 20 UKIP Westminster MPs will achieve - the list goes on.

The SNP guy don't want spending cuts, but blames the Conservatives for not eliminating the £153 bil annual budget deficit, when tax rises or more cuts would have been needed to do so.

But fair point, I'll go smaller, but punchier - until I stop hearing so much rollocks.