Kiev

[telsa]

Ok, can anyone explain what is happening in Kiev. I am sure the govt are monsters, but is it right that the extreme. Right ( Pravy Sektor) are majorly involved in the uprising. What are the demands.

[claig]

Very complicated to understand.

Putin may not have wanted this President either. The lease for the port at Sevastopol runs out in 2017 and the President has not signed an extension for Russia.

In 2015, Russia is starting a Customs Union with Belarus and other ex-Soviet republics and Russia would have liked Ukraine to be in that and it could not allow Ukraine access to this Customs Union while also being part of an EU association.

There clearly will be some kind of counter strategy from Putin. Russia has some of the best chess players in the world so they must have worked out some strategies.

Crimea was given as a gift to Ukraine by a former Soviet leader and Putin once said to George Bush

"Putin is not known for his tact when speaking of Russia's western neighbor, which declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. In April 2008, a source told Russia's Kommersant newspaper how Putin described Ukraine to George Bush at a NATO meeting in Bucharest: "You don't understand, George, that Ukraine is not even a state. What is Ukraine? Part of its territories is Eastern Europe, but the greater part is a gift from us."

content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1900838,00.html

It is possible that Putin may have wanted this all along because of what might happen next. He may not want the West of Ukraine.

[claig]

Other complicating factors are Western companies signing deals for shale gas with Ukraine which may eventually give Ukraine gas independence from Russia. Chevron have signed a potential $10 billion shale deal in the West of Ukraine and Shell has signed a shale deal in the East of Ukraine.

Some of Russia's existing gas pipelines to Europe go through Ukraine.

Shale is important as a way of reducing dependence on Russian gas for Ukraine but also for Europe. However, Chevron has suffered opposition to shale exploration in Romania and Lithuania and apparently Poland's projected shale reserves have been downsized.

[claig]

Spectator article. BBC didn't tell us this.

' Let us never forget that the majority of the 25 deaths on the night of 18 – 19 February were murders committed by the protesters : 9 policemen were shot dead or stabbed to death, while 3 members of the governing party and a journalist were also killed .'

Second, the choice Ukraine faced between the EU and Russia was not an equal one. The EU association accord was a comprehensive political straitjacket designed to lock Ukraine into the orbit of Brussels and Washington by installing, as all over the EU itself, a pro-EU (and ultimately pro-NATO) elite whose policies would remain unchanged whichever team was in power. By contrast, Ukraine’s agreements with Russia are confined to a free trade zone and, lately, loans. They carry no internal political implications at all. Even the Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia, which Ukraine will probably not now join, takes decisions by consensus: it has none of the heavy-handed supranational and technocratic control of Brussels.

Third, Ukraine did not really have a choice. Thanks to decades of corrupt politics, the Ukrainian state is bankrupt. So is the EU. In spite of stringing Kiev along with pretty words about a European future, the EU could offer only $800 million , via the IMF, and that came at the price of exceptionally painfully economic reforms. Ukraine would have been subjected to the same devastation of its agriculture, on which it depends, as Romania and Bulgaria were in their pre-accession period . Its industry would have collapsed as well . Russia, by contrast, has been able to offer nearly 20 times this sum in loans to prevent Ukraine from becoming insolvent, and it is the biggest market for Ukrainian exports – bigger than the whole of the EU put together.

....

Ukraine’s signature on the EU association agreement (the one Georgia signed runs to 400 pages) would have been the longest suicide note in history

To avoid facing up to its own inexorable decline, the post-modern EU, like the United States, has plunged ahead with a radically anti-Russian geopolitical and ideological agenda based on left-wing fantasies about resurgent nationalism in Moscow. We used to laugh at Cold Warriors but the absurd anti-Russian ravings of Dr Strangelove and Jack D. Ripper have now become the standard fare served up in Washington and Brussels. What a shame most of the Western media swallows this rubbish

blogs.spectator.co.uk/john-laughland/2014/02/ukraine-its-not-about-europe-vs-russia/

[MyCatIsFat]

There was an interesting perspective on this on Radio 5 last night when Dotun Adebayo interviewed the author who wrote 'A short history of tractors in Ukraine?'. Her parents had been Ukranians who had fled to Britain. She mentioned that it's wrong to think that the whole country wishes to turn westwards as the east? of the country is actually pro-Russia. She equated Russia and Ukraine as being akin to England and Scotland.

It's a dangerous situation and the timing is obviously Olympic related, but I dohope that the EU stays well out of this one. The EU ballsed up the FYR break-up. It has no business involving itself in this potential flashpoint.

[claig]

It is too late, MyCatIsFat, the EU is involved. They met with the protestors and backed the deal and the people like the ones shown in Kharkiv on Sky just now say they weren't asked.

There are Euro elections in May and if the crisis gets worse, I think people will vote for anti-EU parties because European people do not want to be dragged into this and be asked to bail out Ukraine etc.

[MyCatIsFat]

There's no chance of the EU bailing out Ukraine. No way at all. The EU has enough problems with it's own PIIGS without looking to assist non-EU members.

No, what I meant was the potential for political stirring as when the EU pre-emptively recognised Croatia and forced the hand of its member sovereign states to recognise that country's independence from Yugoslavia. We do not want the EU recognising one element of a broken Ukraine.

The EU will start a bloody war one day with their stupidity. The sooner the whole shit heap just implodes the better.

[claig]

I think the EU will be given orders to bail Ukraine out.

Very good point about recognising Croatia. Yes, it is very dangerous.

[mathanxiety]

"We cannot characterise what is happening in Ukraine as anything except a violent attempt to seize power," said foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, blamed extremist groups, Ukraine's opposition and Western leaders for encouraging the violence. "Many western countries, who have tried to interfere in events and played games with insurgents, are also to blame. The west has solidly, repeatedly and shamefully avoided criticism of the actions of extremists, including Nazi elements."

www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/19/russian-ukraine-putin-blames-west-protest


I agree with this Russian pov that was quoted earlier. There is much game playing going on, and the usual irresponsible posturing on the part of Washington. Russia is right to insist that a legitimately elected government in Ukraine should not be overthrown by what is basically hoodlums occupying the streets, no matter how good their English is and no matter how photogenic they may be. Would this be tolerated in Belfast? Or Seattle? I think not.

The much vaunted Orange Revolution resulted in Ukraine being governed by a bunch of incompetent nincompoops who are now poised to run the country into the ground again (Tymoshenko and pals). Millions of old people face again the spectre of their pensions jeopardised. They're not out on the streets because they're old.

And it will be most interesting when Ukraine asks how much it means to the EU to have it onside. The amount Russia is willing to put on the table is already known. My guess is the EU can offer bailout terms similar to Greece's. If the opposition weren't idiots they would understand this. They would also understand that Ukraine depends on Russian gas. Or maybe they are hoping German taxpayers will foot that bill.

I can see 'Ukraine' being politically divided east/west, and maybe soon, the return of the Crimea and the heavy industry of the east to Russia.

I can also see conservative Poland and Ukraine (west) joining forces within the EU and making things interesting in Brussels. The EU needs to be careful what it wishes for.

[claig]

Spot on, mathanxiety

'If the opposition weren't idiots they would understand this.'

They are puppets, they have no choice, and of course the EU are puppets too and that will begin to become more and more evident to the people of Europe as time goes on.

[mathanxiety]

Western banks are of course going to have a say in all of this, just as they influenced the EU bailout terms of Ireland, Greece, etc.

Banks are no doubt worried that a mob thumbed its nose at a Russian deal that would have enabled the banks to be paid their lawful repayments. They will be looking for evidence of acceptance of reality from whatever 'government' follows Yanukovich's, and the Ukrainian independence crowd will take some reining in once the news is broken to them that it is western banks that in fact own the country and not them.

[mathanxiety]

When I say influenced I mean of course 'dictated'.

I am normally a fan of the EU but in this case I think there has been massive overreaching, and incredible stupidity that I ascribe to undue American influence. I think one of the other key players in all of this besides Russia, will be Germany -- Germany will ultimately foot any bill that comes due if Ukraine becomes closely allied with the EU, and a coalition of Poland and Ukraine in Brussels would not necessarily be to Germany's advantage, so if they haven't already done a cost-benefit analysis of various outcomes they are no doubt sharpening their pencils.

Germany already bailed out Greece, in the teeth of an offer dangled from Russia to Athens. The political fallout was significant in Germany. Merkel hung on but only just. I do not know how she can sell the potential purchase of even half of Ukraine to the electorate even on the grounds that it would effectively reverse the outcome of WW2.

[claig]

Unfortunately, I am not a subscriber to the Financial Times, so can't read their latest article, but today we have

"West scrambles to find Ukraine rescue plan"

They are worried that Russia will withdraw its $10 billion financial help and will no longer provided subsidised gas.

The Ukrainian people will probably be left high and dry by the EU as usual as with Greece and everywhere else.

The FT also has an interview with Zbigniew Brzezinski. He is the real brains, the real mastermind. He has been around for years and planned the original Taliban uprising against Russia in Afghanistan. Unfortunately, I can't read what he says because I am not an FT subscriber.

He is the person to listen to, to find out what will happen. Of course, what Russia will do also has to be factored in.

"Brzezinski: U.S. has to talk turkey to Putin"


The EU has to step forward and not just offer slogans and long range invitations, it has to offer some cash , because Ukraine is on the back of economic collapse, literally.

And if Putin comes back and says go with me and I'll give you lots of cash, and we don't offer anything from the West, a lot of Ukrainians will say, well, we have to eat. We have to eat. We have to have jobs.

And the third thing which is needed is we, the United States, we have to talk turkey to the Russians. We have to talk turkey to Putin and say to him, look, this is a critical moment. Don't reignite the cold war because the Ukrainians are willing to be your friends, but they're not willing to be your serfs."

globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2014/02/22/brzezinski-u-s-has-to-talk-turkey-to-putin/

Ever since the leaked US phone call with "fuck the EU", the EU has jumped into action and the puppets ran around like headless chickens.

Brzezinski tells Deutsche Welle that Germany has to find the cash to pay, and of course their puppets will pay and won't consult the German taxpayer.

"Zbigniew Brzezinski calls on Russia to push Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych to step down and Germany to put up some money"

www.dw.de/brzezinski-finland-role-model-for-ukraine/a-17448110

[claig]

Crosspost

Yes, you are spot on. Well spotted about Germany having to foot the bill

"Germany will ultimately foot any bill that comes due if Ukraine becomes closely allied with the EU"

Exactly.

[claig]

Article from the influential New York Times

'And it is questionable whether the Kremlin will accept a loss of influence in Ukraine. Mr. Putin had high hopes of making Ukraine a key ally in his planned Eurasian Union. He may have decided that Mr. Yanukovych was too unreliable an ally, but that does not mean he will accept a revolution against him.'

...

Now the European Union needs to come back with a better offer — not just association, but membership

...

The key to this approach lies in Berlin


www.nytimes.com/2014/02/24/opinion/what-the-west-must-do-for-ukraine.html?_r=0

[mathanxiety]

They are worried that Russia will withdraw its $10 billion financial help and will no longer provided subsidised gas.


No shit Sherlock. What makes the FT think any other outcome is likely?

The thing about what Brzezinski says is it has already happened. Russia made the offer. Hands were shaken in Moscow. Hence howls of rage followed by civil disobedience and turmoil. The person who made the deal now has a warrant out for his arrest.

Brzezniski is full of hot air about the Cold War. It's the only thing he knows so he trots it out every time he gets a microphone in front of him.

And yes, I can see Angela Merkel giving a to the idea of the German taxpayer forking over one cent to further American ("fuck the EU") geopolitical ambitions, especially when this idea comes from the man who thought arming the Taliban was a good idea. Mercifully he is now retired.

I doubt if Russia wants western Ukraine. I don't think the EU wants it either. The only element with any interest in the token of western Ukraine is the US.

[claig]

'I don't think the EU wants it either.'

The EU's deal was not a good one.

Then we had the leaked US phone call with the statement "fuck the EU"

Then the EU had to increase their offer and pull their finger out. The EU may not have wanted West Ukraine, but the EU has no choice, it does what it is told. Merkel will have to do as she is told. At the moment the EU is looking for money from Canada, Japan and even ridiculously enough, China.

China won't pay because that will upset Russia.

'The only element with any interest in the token of western Ukraine is the US.'

Of course and when the US says jump, the EU says "how high?"

'Brzezniski is full of hot air about the Cold War. It's the only thing he knows so he trots it out every time he gets a microphone in front of him.'

I think you underestimate Brzezinski. Brzezinski will have already foreseen what happens next and he possibly wrote it down years ago.

[claig]

The FT is the world's leading newspaper written for the elite on the planet. Every puppet everywhere in a position of power reads it carefully.

The reason that the FT had an article by Brzezinski in its paper yesterday is because they know that Brzrezinski is the person who counts and knows what is hapening and what comes next.

When the FT looks for someone to interview, it doesn't interview the monkey, it interviews the organ grinder.

[claig]

''The only element with any interest in the token of western Ukraine is the US.'

It is not a 'token'. It is of strategic importance for NATO, because little by little, Russia is being surrounded. This is chess, and countries and people are the pawns.

The king has been toppled, it was check mate. The elected President has fled. That was game over. A brilliant match.

[claig]

"Zbigniew Brzezinski: Ukraine tycoons should pass hat around

"He also says Ukraine tycoons should club together to the amount of $1 billion each to help Ukraine relieve her economic difficulties, UNIAN says Feb. 25.

Writing in The Financial Times, Brzezinski say Russia can still push Ukraine on the road of a civil war by encouraging separatists in Crimea and some Eastern oblasts."

...

Ukraine top ten tycoons who were the main beneficiaries of rampant corruption in the country should be persuaded into donating $1 billion each to stabilize the country.

Sooner or later Ukraine will join the EU family, with Russia going on its heels unless Putin self-isolates his country turning it into a semi-decomposed remnant of imperislism, Z. Brzezinski says."

zik.ua/en/news/2014/02/25/zbigniew_brzezinski_ukraine_tycoons_should_pass_hat_around_464541

The tycoons are now getting the cash ready. Brzezinski has spoken.

[DoctorTwo]

Brzezinski is just another corporate shill. Unfortunately, Ukraine appear to be appealing to the IMF for financial assistance, and that always ends well. For the banks, not the populace, they'll be in enforced austerity like everywhere else the IMF 'helped'.

The world police showed there hand in that 'fuck the EU' conversation, they're trying to install another puppet government, just like they did in South American countries from the 50s till now. They need to step away from cold war attitudes.

[mathanxiety]

I don't underestimate him. He is old and he is retired. His Polish origins are supposed to give him extra credibility in Europe and that is why he has been de-mothballed for his current role. He is an unofficial spokesperson for the US right now and his function is to test the waters. He is throwing out various outcomes, the only serious one being that Germany should pay for the acquisition of Ukraine, and the State Dept is gauging reaction specifically to that question. Germany does not have to jump and is not likely to imo. Germany is already very extended financially thanks to Greece and Portugal, etc.

The rest of the baloney he is spewing is pure Cold War bumpf. And post Cold War bumpf. Where does democracy fit in in a country bought by tycoons who do not care at all about the will of the people? (This is a question Cold Warriors could equally ask of American 'democracy' where corporations count as individuals where campaign donations are concerned.) I suspect the Ukrainian tycoons are very likely to press for acceptance of the Russian offer if that guarantees stability for their own interests, plant, markets, etc. I suspect they would like to see their business interests safe no matter whose troops do the safeguarding.

[mathanxiety]

The real game has only just begun, Claig.

[mathanxiety]

And China owns an enormous chunk of US debt. China does not care who she upsets. China doesn't have to worry about treading on anyone's toes.

[mathanxiety]

Democracy and self determination on the one hand, and IMF-imposed austerity or EU-imposed austerity on the other, are not compatible.

Sooner or later this conclusion has to suggest itself to the bright young things now running Ukraine, and at that point Russia is going to start looking better and better.

[mathanxiety]

And further on the question of tycoons and where their interests lie -- it is really hard to crack into the European market thanks to the red tape and the existence of producers who are already in and well established and very keen to protect their market share, whereas Russia is already Ukraine's biggest trading partner.