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So where has all the money gone?

179 replies

Bugsy2 · 29/09/2011 09:25

I just don't get it & I need someone within an economics sort of mind to explain - please!
We live on planet earth, there are currencies circulating all around the world, people buy & sell things. How can it be that 10 years ago the economic outlook was good & certainly in the West most people were buying houses, getting more wealthy & everything was fine & dandy. Now, it is all doom & gloom, countries are going bust, people are losing their homes & its all going tits up. So where has the money gone? Who has it, where was it, where did it go to?

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BirdyBedtime · 29/09/2011 14:10

BTW, did you hear about living ......... Grin

niceguy2 · 29/09/2011 14:13

The bottom line is that for far too long we've borrowed money to fuel things we wanted to have now, rather than the sensible thing which is to buy them when we could afford it.

We all saw the latter stages just before the bust came where everyone whether they had jobs or not were being offered loans & credit cards. Everyone knows/knew someone who'd slapped £10k+ on a series of credit cards. But somehow it became the norm and accepted practice. In essence this is what's happened with our governments and financial markets too.

chill1243 · 29/09/2011 14:15

the financial crisis is above my head....but I can tell you that on the dinner time news Merkel got her plan voted through the German parliament.

On English banks: can anyone tell me if it is true that the govt have said they will cover deposits up to 50 grand...if things go crazy?

sittinginthesun · 29/09/2011 14:25

[claps]

Brilliant thread, thank you.

Polarmonkey · 29/09/2011 14:27

Since 2008 the govt has had a deposit protection scheme of £50k per person per bank.

chill1243 · 29/09/2011 14:31

thanks Polar

Rooble · 29/09/2011 14:37

Yes, just wanted to echo those saying brilliant thread. It really is

Takver · 29/09/2011 14:43

An awful lot of the money has gone to pay sky high salaries to bankers, hedge fund managers and big dividends to bank shareholders.

The reason the banks made all these risky loans, is because they could charge high levels of interest for them. They saw it as risk free because in a rising housing market even if they had to reposess they were likely to be able to sell the house for more than the loan value.

Of course, it was pretty much risk free - because even though it went pearshaped, we the tax payers have bailed them out.

There's a great book called "This time is different" all about the history of financial crises, well worth a read.

On a slightly more cheerful note, the reason the Greeks are utterly shafted is that no-one has confidence in their economy for very good reason. IIRC they have been technically in default on their debts for something like 84 out of the last 100 years (can't remember exactly, but you get the point).

Whereas to look at the last time the UK substantially defaulted on its debts you have to go back a very, very long time (lets put it this way, Henry VIII confiscating the monasteries is one of the more recent occasions that England's rulers took the money & ran).

On a less cheerful note, its hard to ignore the issue of oil prices - as said up thread, oil is only going to get more expensive, and energy, ie oil, is at the centre of almost everything we consume from food on upwards. The rise in food prices over the last year almost exactly mirrors the rise in oil prices.

Takver · 29/09/2011 14:44

Sorry, 2nd para should say:

they could charge high levels of interest for them . . and therefore make lots of profit!

chill1243 · 29/09/2011 14:50

rare event last night on Newsnight. Paxo had a round robin dissussion on economics. 3 in studio one bloke in brusselss..... Oborne kept call the bloke in brusselss an idiott. Paxo told him off. But the bloke in brussells walked out . That does not happen very often

FrogGreen · 29/09/2011 14:51

living - you should write a book

WhaohThere · 29/09/2011 14:56

It's all a mess isn't it. Lots of the population believing they were rich on the back of rising house prices.

It was never sustainable.

The Government ALLOWED this to happen (thank you Gordon Brown) (although would any of the others have been any better?)

I do believe that for the next 10 years or so we will stagnate. I don't think that is a bad thing in terms of house prices..HOW COULD a house that cost £40k 15 years ago now be "worth" £900k. Complete madness.

We should all rejoice when house prices come down/crash 'cos it means our children and our children's children may buy a home. It really doesn't matter to the rest of us (apart from those who bought at the peak in 2007).

Takver · 29/09/2011 14:57

Also, another point worth making. It is rather disingenuous to blame Labour for the UK's debt. Labour are undoubtedly to blame for not re-regulating the banking system (deregulated under Thatcher) and for being seduced by the apparant wonders of the financial services sector.

But, for most of the last Labour govt's time in office, the UK's annual deficit was on the low side when compared to the post-war average. The deficit - and therefore the ratio of overall debt to annual GDP (ie like comparing what you owe to your monthly salary) only shot up after the banking crisis, because of the bail out.

There's a great Jackie Fleming cartoon here that sums it up.

Terpsichore · 29/09/2011 14:58

Have been reading this thread with interest. John Lanchester wrote a great book about all this, which explains the whole debacle in terms that idiots people like me can actually follow. The first chapter alone, about the 'complex financial instruments' devised by banks and brokers, had me boggling in disbelief and even more convinced than ever that the world has gone totally mad...

CogitoErgoSometimes · 29/09/2011 15:07

@Takver... no-one had mentioned politics or bankers bonuses up to now, which was quite refreshing. More looking at the ins and outs of how economics, debt and cashflow work. Bring the political/banking blame game in and this rather interesting thread will descend into a 'he said, she said' yadda-yadda bore-fest.

WhaohThere · 29/09/2011 15:16

The people were led to believe it was all right to spend, spend, spend. We borrowed beyond our means and thought that everything would be fine.

It has been the era of excess.

I used to work with a 25 year old girl (secretary) who had a £600 handbag and bought £3.00 cafe lattes x 3 times a day. It's insane.

I do hope something changes.

Bugsy2 · 29/09/2011 15:21

Ok, so now I'm looking for reasons to be cheerful. Sounds like a good thing that we are not in the Euro, if it means that we don't have to help fund the Greek bail out - or do those two not necessarily go hand in hand? How do we get confidence & growth back again?

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TalkinPeace2 · 29/09/2011 15:28

Read this Book
A Short History of Financial Euphoria by J K Galbraith
its only 128 pages
but you'll never listen to the business news the same way again.
Most Libraries have it.

TalkinPeace2 · 29/09/2011 15:32

I realised we were in a bubble when in 2005 I heard that 100% interest only mortgages were being dished out with no repayment vehicle.

Ie the "buyer" was only ever paying the interest on the debt and that the only way they would ever repay the "capital" was to sell the house for more than they bought it.

The banks were in on the deal because they took commission
on the mortgage
on the estate agent fee
on the surveyor fee
on the insurance

all the rewards for the lender were front loaded
all the risks were back loaded
and they still are
even with house prices falling it is still possible to get interest only mortgages
madness

TalkinPeace2 · 29/09/2011 15:39

And while I think of it,
I wrote this spreadsheet to explain to a friend that she HAD to get her debts under control otherwise she would be paying her current credit cards off when her baby started University
Debt Freedom

Bugsy2 · 29/09/2011 15:42

TP2, going to read that book. I read Niall Ferguson's (who I quite fancy) The Ascent of Money, which was very good - but sometimes a bit too detailed for my small brain. It does sound like we all got a bit over-excited - or over-heated I think is the term economists use. I have to confess to being very nervous about the future. Is there a way of stopping this happening again?

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Polarmonkey · 29/09/2011 15:58

The assumption that the banks charged a high rate of interest on mortgage loans is wrong. They charged too little given the risk reward balance. In fact that mortgages were priced too cheaply is what lead to the explosion in mortgages being granted and resulted in the house price bubble. Where the banks made money on mortgages was on the arrangement fee. These varied between £500 and £2000k.

BoffinMum · 29/09/2011 16:01

The dosh has gone to the Middle East and China, who now more or less own us.

Watch this space.

angrywoman · 29/09/2011 16:02

The I.M.F.?? Where do they come in?

Bugsy2 · 29/09/2011 16:14

Very good question angrywoman. My understanding is that the IMF is supposed to keep tabs on all its member & the wider global economy. It is supposed to report to its own Exec & to member countries on the state of each countries economy as well as advise small to medium (financial) countries on how best to manager their economies. It also gives loans to the strugglers. But you can't help wondering, what were they doing when it was all starting to go pear-shaped. If the indicators were there as far back as 2005, what were they doing??????????

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