A level predictions and university offers (particularly Oxbridge)

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Hi all,

DD doing A-levels next year. I was just wondering how much the predictions might affect offers and if universities tend to offer on the highest grades a candidate is predicted to achieve, regardless of the usual offers for the course?

Let's say a student is predicted 3 A stars, and the average offer for the course they are interested in is 2xAs and 1 A star.

What would the offer most likely look like in that situation? Particularly curious about Oxford and Cambridge offers...thanks so much!

They just give the normal offer. Eg prediction is 3 A stars, offer for Oxford humanities subject remains at 3 As

Cambridge have a standard offer of 2x A* plus an A (or at least that's what it was last time I checked).

They don't vary from that very much (I don't know about lower contextual offers) but for some courses they specify which subject/s you need a star in. Plus for maths subjects they're likely to ask for STEP as well.

Ds1 was predicted AAAA and got an A*AA offer from Oxford.

formatting fail - he was predicted 4xA*

Predicted 3 A stars, standard offer Oxford E&M A star AA, think everyone gets the same offer.

I think Oxford and Cambridge are quite different here. Also I think you find differences depending on the subject applied for. It is certainly the case that Cambridge college can ask for higher than the standard offer published on the college website for competitive courses.

Sorry should have clarified with "in my experience".
I wouldn't worry too much about it yet though if your DD hasn't started A levels

Yep they can definitely require higher grades at oxbridge (aware of this for kids from private schools anyways). Sometimes also also offer on four (even if the 4th is a low required grade - required basically so you don't drop it once you have the offer) or they require that you get an a star (e.g A star in FMaths for economics) - even though the standard offer doesn't specify it. Definitely variation! I don't think it's because of predicted grades though.

Thanks all! Yes I had heard that sometimes Oxbridge offer above the 'standard' offer, particularly for the most competitive courses. I

I was just curious as to whether or not the thinking is 'you have that prediction, therefore that's we would want to see from you', or if it's usually more standardised than that. Thanks again.

I think Cambridge can have offers which can vary by college etc but I thought Oxford everyone had the same.

It won't be due to predicted grades.

If you look on the relevant subject webpage it should say like Economics at Cambridge gives details of how offers can vary.

Most just offer their standard offer

all my ds’s offers were those advertised. That will sometimes include reductions for contextual/EPQ/whatever - 2 of his offers were reductions - but reductions exactly as they had been advertised.

Oxford by subject:

https://www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/undergraduate/courses/entrance-requirements/level-offers

Other universities for DD (state) were standard offers for Economics unless contextual criteria applied when lower offer but same as one given for that. Oxford does not give contextual offers but grades are taken in context of school and in the event of missing an offer special consideration is taken into account.

I think there is more variability at Cambridge. At Oxford, there is a standard recommended offer for each course and that is the offer that is made, regardless what the A level prediction is and what the socio-economic background.

Thanks again. Interesting that there's more variability at Cambridge - I wonder why that is?

An entry grade is the lowest grade profile they will accept an applicant in on unless contextual. So although Oxford would say Astar AA entry for a subject they usually offering places to those with 3 A stars or more in greater quantities than the lower end.

Top tier unis and Oxbridge are not just looking at predicted grades, they are looking at what supercurriculars a candidate has ie what has the applicant pursued outside of their A levels to deepen their interest in their subject choice? Not only that what have they learned from it, where did it lead next?

Ds has an offer from Warwick, their entry is 2 A star A and he is predicted 3 A star A. He has an offer for their standard entry of 2 A star A. Only one uni asked for the 4 A levels he is taking which was a dropped grade so A star AA entry, offer is either A star AA or A star ABB.

@BoxingFoamDollies - thanks, really interesting. My dd is also doing four and I know for her subject they offer on three (the fourth is not further maths).

She's predicted 3 Astars and an A. The 'A' is her least favourite of the four and I think we're going to have a bit of a decision ahead of us as to whether or not to drop it. Of course there's a fair amount of extended reading etc to do for the Oxbridge application, but it seems a shame to ditch it when she's come this far and it's going so well. Any thoughts?

I work for Oxford University. We always give the "standard offer" for each subject, regardless of any characteristics of the applicant. We will not consider applicants who are not predicted at least the standard offer. Some subjects may include predicted grades in their consideration of who to give offers to this, but in my own subject (PPE) we certainly don't do this formally and probably don't put much weight on predicted grades even informally. This is because the evidence shows that the majority of predictions are over optimistic, and the degree of over optimism probably varies across schools so it would be unfair. In practice, most accepted students are predicted more than AAA, but not because it is needed.

At Cambridge individual colleges have the scope to implement slightly different approaches to admissions. So an individual college has the right to set different criteria (either for A levels or for other things eg whether you have to submit written work as part of an application).

At Oxford the colleges have all signed a “common framework” which means they agree to apply exactly the same process for admissions. So the only variability allowed is between courses, not between courses and also colleges.

I would not drop the 4th subject for a couple of reasons, one not everything has to be exciting, there will no doubt be parts of her degree which are less interesting and she should get used to doing things to a high standard that she dislikes. Two, her predicted grade is incredible considering it is her least favourite. And lastly and probably the most important to me as a parent whose DCs both have 4 A levels statistically it puts her in a minority. I think the last time I checked around 68% of applicants have 3 A levels and less than 5% have 4 A levels. Half of those I believe will have further maths. Lots of state schools only offer 3 A levels and if some offer 4 it is with intention of dropping one at the end of year 12.

I would be encouraging her to spend the summer either on a summer course (google year 12 summer placements) some are in person, both of mine did online ones, keep notes of what she has done, learned, liked etc in a word doc so she can look back at it for her personal statement. It isn't all about paid for courses, there are books, YouTube for TED talks, guest lectures from unis who post them, books, online articles, radio/podcasts, places to visit.

I agree with @pinkspeakers about the over predicting of grades which is why I feel there is a tendency to offer to those above the entry grade level in my opinion. However, I do feel that because their field is PPE a lot of essay subjects at A level are possibly more subjective whereas with maths/further maths or maybe even sciences it is far more concrete, you are either right or wrong. I would be interested to know if this is true. Ds2 is predicted his A for further maths as he was right on the border of A/A star so his college to be safe won't predict him an A star which I agree with considering he has 3 other A stars. It just made Ds far more determined to get the A star. We'll find out in August.

Re the fourth subject, DD3 was doing four up till October of U6th (and wanted to keep all four for the same reasons OP mentions), but the school very strongly advised her to drop one, because a) the workload is intense, and b) it’s really of no benefit to do four unless it’s a further maths combo. And you don’t want to be dropping subjects after the UCAS form has gone in, because each university would have to be notified about the change individually and it could affect offers. Anyway DD caved and dropped a subject, and since the serious exam stress started is really glad not to have a fourth subject to revise! Remember doing four subjects not only means more work, but also fewer free periods in the timetable to be doing it, so it’s like a double whammy. Is your DD looking at sciences or humanities?

Most universities have ‘standard’ offers, not just Oxford, and it would be rare to get an offer higher than that. In fact, (anecdotally!) I would say the reverse is more likely, with unis tempting strong applicants with a lower offer. DD got a lower than standard offer from Edinburgh, for example, and I’ve come across other instances on the HE threads on here.

Almost all PPE offer holders (and applicants) have A-level Maths. I don't know whether the over prediction varies by subject I'm afraid.

My advice would be to drop the 4th A-level if she is not really enjoying it, unless the subject keeps open degree options that she might potentially be interested in. I think it is better, both academically and personally, to spend more time on things you are more interested in. At least at PPE Oxford, it is highly unlikely that there would be any benefit to doing a 4th A-level (unless that A-level is Maths - in which case definitely don't drop it !!!). I suspect the advice would be similar for other Oxford courses, though I am less sure. I can't speak for other Universities.