Tropical, I think we are at the same stage. DD does not have any offers yet and is also having some wobbles.
From what I recall from your supportive PMs, both our daughters are reasonably academic so the normal AAA offer does not pose a problem. But medicine is not just about grades and lots each year won't get offers despite lots of predicted A*s.
DDs slight advantage, if it can be called that, is that she had a serious accident last summer and so was not in a position to take BMAT. This means a number of the more academic choices (Oxbridge, UCL, Imperial etc) were ruled out. She ended up applying to "middle ranking" schools which did not require a sky high UKCAT, and so still has a chance with three. The origional game plan was for her to use this UCAS round and then, depending on results, try again perhaps with a mix which included one/two aspirational BMAT courses and one/two less selective courses. Your DD seems to done what DD might have done had circumstances been different which is to apply to two BMAT and two (a definition used simply for convenience) "middle ranking" schools. If she fails to get an offer, and she is otherwise a good candidate, she should not read anything into it. It happens, quite a lot. She just reapplies, perhaps a bit more tactically.
Inevitably with interviews hanging over her as well as mocks, DD has started to say she does not want to be a Doctor, and she wants to do "something else". Trouble is she does not know what that "something else" is, though possibly something using physics. My guess is that if she gets an offer the wobbles will disappear. If not she needs to focus on her A levels and then have a good think.
Factors which may come into play.
- Work load. DD is at a London independent. Her friends parents work in a variety of professions, including medicine and academia. By definition they earn plenty but most work very hard. She expects this.
- Work security. On one level this is a given. Doctors will always be in demand. Whether the NHS will exist in the form we know it in 20 years time, and whether it will be the dominent employer is a different question. A well trained doctor should have far more security than most other professions, a doctor wanting to work simply for the NHS might find themselves subject to the pressures of a system trying to meet ever increasing demand and expectations on a limited budget.
- Money. The problem with being a doctor, rather than say a lawyer, is you can't delegate in the same way. A Partner might have lots of associates beavering away through the night and he can charge high fees for simply reviewing their work. If you pay for a private surgeon you expect them to do the work. In anycase I don't think DD is very motivated by money, perhaps an advantage of growing up somewhere where being very rich is not unusual.
- What else to do? Here I have an advantage as DD has sailed through quite a lot of quite unglamerous vounteering without a problem. Teachers and others say they think she would make a good doctor and this is what she has always wanted to do. If she does not get a place, I will encourage her to research alternatives more thoroughly, if need be adding an A level during a gap year. But suspect once away from the pressure of the UCAS round, she will stay with medicine simply because this is what she wants to do most.
One thing that has surprised her is how many applicants she has met on Open Days, UKCAT preparations courses etc, have their career chosen by their parents. She knows others, often second generation or from overseas, who are being steered into other professions, but medicine seems to be the big prize. Some, presumably will be fine. It may be tough for some others.
My surprise has been how might the "getting into medical school" industry is. We have just dipped in, via a UKCAT preparation course and a couple of books, and I would have paid for an interview course but DD is content to take her chances. With the various non academic requirements, the whole thing feels like an arms race. There is clearly no shortage of applicants despite the concerns Doctors have. And no shortage of children of Doctors we know also applying for medicine.