Westministenders: A Year of Johnson

[RedToothBrush]

So having given the benefit of the doubt...

... whats your reflections?

Good (and yes do have some thoughts on the positive - challenge yourself on this one as its important) and the bad (and yes this is the easy bit but keep it within reason)?

Better slogan for BJ, even has a song:

"Hands Knees and Boomps a Daisy"

news.sky.com/story/sage-members-worried-serious-disorder-could-overwhelm-attempts-to-control-coronavirus-12040171
SAGE members worried serious disorder could 'overwhelm' attempts to control coronavirus
Britain will face "grave challenges" in keeping public order, scientists advising the government have warned

A paper written by a Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) sub-committee, and considered by SAGE itself on 2 July, said the current "volatile and highly complex situation" means Britain will face "grave challenges" in keeping public order during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Any disorder could be "comparable or bigger in scale" than the 2011 London riots, the scientists warned.

And

The scientists warned there needed to be "sufficient headroom" in the rate of infections for schools to reopen safely - adding there "may be a need to change measures at the end of the summer in order to be able to keep R below 1" while sending pupils back

And

At one meeting, the scientists discussed modelling which showed contact tracing people with the virus and "COVID-secure measures" alone are "unlikely to be sufficiently effective to allow a return to 'pre-COVID' normality without increasing infection rates" if there is no vaccine

"The situation in the UK is precariously balanced and the smallest error in policing (whether perceived or real, inside or outside the UK) or policy could unleash a dynamic which will make the management of COVID-19 all but impossible," the paper by Professors Clifford Stott and Mark Harrison said.

The scientists flagged the scapegoating of various communities, and anger over local lockdowns, as potential causes of disorder.

And in a prescient warning, they said localised lockdowns could cause problems if they are in place over Eid.

Going well and to plan then...

Gee, just as well the police haven't been cut by 20,000 odd officers over the years.

And in a prescient warning, they said localised lockdowns could cause problems if they are in place over Eid.

Well we know Bozo doesn't read anything not on A4 so Cummings appears to have read this and decided this was the best timing. Or maybe Hancock? Cummings would have had to green-light it though.
Smells of dog whistle to see us through to Jan with an abject fear of muslims to me! Also well timed that the rise from ppl returning from holiday will bring will be hidden and we won't be able to pinpoint where exactly we have relaxed too far. Brilliant.

*The scientists flagged the scapegoating of various communities, and anger over local lockdowns, as potential causes of disorder.

And in a prescient warning, they said localised lockdowns could cause problems if they are in place over Eid.*

But then the science community still has significant issues with diversity......

@Emilyontmoor
But then the science community still has significant issues with diversity......
Please do not blame the Scientists

it was a political decision to bar the Local Government Public Health teams - who already deal with STD / measles / TB
AND
have the links and communication with residents

the BAME death differential is politcal, not genetic

Papers have mostly chosen "slamming on the brakes"
but the Star's Mars / Cummings "scoop" raises a chuckle - they are a comic, not a newspaper

Police: Analysis of COVID fines

https://news.npcc.police.uk/releases/independent-analysis-of-coronavirus-fines-published

Analysis of Fixed Penalty Notices (FPNs) issued by police under the Coronavirus (Covid-19) regulations shows a low overall rate in fines issued across England and Wales with young men receiving the biggest proportion.

It also shows black, Asian and minority ethnic people were issued with a FPN at a rate of 1.6 times higher than white people.

The analysis, undertaken by staff from the Government Statistical Service, used police force data from English and Welsh forces for the number of FPNs issued between 27 March and 25 May for breaching public health regulations introduced by Government to help prevent the spread of Covid-19. These powers came into effect on 27 March 2020.

Listening I am the last to blame the scientists but if they are going to start commenting on society’s reaction amongst minorities (as opposed to the RNA etc) it really would help if women and other minorities were fully represented if they are to present a balanced view. Bias is not just an issue for the arts. As an example how do you perceive the moment of conception? You would be exceptional if you didn’t think/been taught it was a Male sperm penetrating a female egg . The biology is that the sperm and egg meet and a reaction takes place, the idea it is penetration is subjective and not backed by the science. Apologies if I am cynical if SAGE , especially official SAGE start pronouncing on matters affecting minorities. Race riots amongst young Muslims have been sparked In the past by far right activity, not religious matters. It is not that that might happen but I think any speculation needs to be backed by objective research not speculation, especially in the case of official SAGE which was far from ethnically or gender diverse.

The SAGE SPI-B group has 16 women amongst the 36 named members (4 are unnamed). You’re right in that there’s not many BAME members, but there are members with specialisms such as racial integration and countering Islamophobia.

Government very jittery now. They must be in need of incontinence pants by now. I'm begining to feel sorry for them as they run around like headless chickens. I'm also pissed off with people moaning about more lockdowns. You were all warned time and time again about what would happen if numbers of infections began to rise. Yet people continue to flout social distancing. My local Morrison's yesterday was horrendous! After queuing for half hour I went home. No control of numbers going in. Masses of holidaymakers wearing masks but no sense of social distance at all. If people continue to behave irresponsibly then they need to stop moaning about lockdowns occuring at shirt notice. Life will not return to normal no matter how much people want it to. You won't be able to go to a beauty shop to get dolled up. It's not essential anyway. Stop being so lax in social distancing mask wearing and then you can get your eyebrows done! People have got to realise that compromises will have to be made in order to have some semblence of normality and keep the economy going. After all you can't have everything I was always told.

He said it was the UK, not China, that had changed and should take full responsibility for the current difficulties in the relationship. He blamed the Cold War warriors within the Conservative Party and said they were influenced by outside powers. The UK and China should have the wisdom not to allow Anglo-Chinese forces and Cold War warriors to take away the relationship, he said. Britain, he argued, “can’t be great if it doesn’t have an independent foreign policy.”

The slowly sinking UK reputation - notice the sly dig at the UK being told what to do by Russia ...

@DGRossetti
It's not Russia he's hinting at.
It's Washington.

Also people are forgetting one important thing. People are still dying of Covid. It may have took 14 days for another thousand to die but on average 70 people a day are dying of Covid mainly in England.
My life has hardly changed since March. I could now go out for meals and go for a drink in a pub but I don't. I don't because although that is lovely to be able to do as would a nice stroll round Southwold would be they are things I can do without for quite a while longer. Yes I long for a bit of normality like everyone but lockdown has taught me what is more important freedoms to have for me at anyrate. Seeing my family is top of that list. Mixing with thousands in airports beaches pubs and parks is not. Maybe people should evaluate the most important freedoms in their lives a bit more in order to accept the loss of others.

UK has been dancing to the USA tunes for a long time. It's nothing new. They have been doing it since World War 2!

I listened to the independent sage group yesterday - one of the members said that the -is it ?- Joint Biosecurity Center - had said 1000 infections a day was acceptable. They also pointed out that there was no explanation about how this figure was reached and the science behind it....(so I guess what Cummings decided in his wisdom).......that was just to answer someone's query down the thread about what the government sees as acceptable in terms of infection spread

I'm also pissed off with people moaning about more lockdowns. You were all warned time and time again about what would happen if numbers of infections began to rise. Yet people continue to flout social distancing.

Who is this 'you' this is directed at?

Thats a blanket you directed at the whole of the North for being shit. It really isn't like that at all.

We were told that we would be subject to local lockdowns if the numbers locally started to rise significantly. So on a council basis. And when Leicester was restricted there were warnings for a number of days this was likely to happen.

So this has set up certain expectations that there would be some warning of an imminent lockdown and that lock downs would only happen in places where the rate was exceptionally high.

Instead central government has imposed restrictions across a whole region including a number of areas which havent seen an increase in cases and/or have a much lower rate of cases than places elsewhere in England.

This was done in a manner that was symbolic, confusing and added to the distress of some in not being able to see family on an important day.

This is at the same time as government are actively telling people that they should return to the work place and not work from home, people should be sensible but "go and enjoy themselves" and that shielding is going to come to an end anyway.

Turning around and saying its everyones fault for not socially distancing in that context and they shouldnt feel aggrieved by piss poor policy and communication by government which seems to target certain 'less prestigious' areas which have always been looked down on by London in a snobbish way and social groups (seemingly against the explicit advice of SAGE which warned this could could social or racial tension if not handled sensitively).

There are a hell of a lot of places where people are observing social distancing sensibly and some are still staying home, yet you appear to be including them in your blanket you.

Posts like that boil my piss because they do the job of acting as cheerleaders for government in blaming whole areas and groups unfairly and letting government off the hook for piss poor management and communication.

People are pissed off because of that. Its all over my social media. They are pissed off because senior government officials have demonstrated that its ok to make excuses as to why the rules don't have to apply to you. They are pissed off at the attitudes and prejudices that government and people doing things like 'youing' the whole of the North as only having themselves to blame.

And this coming from someone who professes to be a strong socialist against government and for the interests and representing the voice of the people.

Yesterday i ended up having to explain to my son who was in tears after he'd seen the news and didn't understand it. I'd had no time to gently prepare him for whats going on. He just heard all this stuff about Manchester and got upset. I hadnt anticipated him getting upset as hes taken everything in his stride so far. The only other child hes seen and played with since March he cant see again and he didn't think he was allowed to do things again. Ive also now warned him that school may not happen in September yet as im taking the rising tone of doubt seriously. I am extremely worried now that things that are happening in places close to us could result in us being screwed over even if we are a model area, do all the right things and behave correctly. And then will be blamed for being unpatriotic, undeserving, only having ourselves to blame etc etc.

My point is: have you actually heard yourself and what you are saying?!

Would you like a rosette to pin on saying 'fully paid up member of Doms blame brigade'?

There are legitimate reasons to moan and be pissed off. Dont try and act holier than thou and absolve the policy makers of their responsibility for clear signals and communication, leading by example and having a coherent strategy which everyone can understand, is sensitive to community issues and most importantly people feel they can trust and believe in as being the best option available. A lot of people feel unfairly treated tarred with a brush and dont get why they can go things likebto the pub with 30 people in it or go back to the office with their many colleagues when they could stsy home but cant see 4 or 5 people from their extended family in their garden and within the social distancing rules.

My life has hardly changed since March. I could now go out for meals and go for a drink in a pub but I don't. I don't because although that is lovely to be able to do as would a nice stroll round Southwold would be they are things I can do without for quite a while longer.

Well bully for you, you super bloody hero.

Thats not the case for everyone.

I guess you arent dealing with anyone who has been suffering mentally (in some cases to the point of being suicidal) over everything going on. If work and home are shit, sometimes a walk away from it all is all you've got to keep yourself sane.

Do you want a medal or something for how brilliant you've been?

I don't give a fuck. As long as people are respectful and considerate and keep in their heads the need to distance, i am not going to judge them for doing more or less than me. I realise its a bit more complex than you seem to think.

The stress is really getting to people now, for sure. I don't think SOS meant the whole of the North FWIW but it's a good reminder not to separate; they want to do another version of divide and conquer.

I did an online shop 2 days ago and keep logging in to change/add things. Has anyone else found that "stocks are low" messages are far more frequent? Both plain/SR flour has been subbed, coconut milk, kitkats and pasta (still!). I feel like our JIT is still reeling and not back to normal, but we've not been to a big shop for weeks so maybe it is just delivery?

Nicola Sturgeon regularly (and still) says in her nearly daily COVID press briefings that "If things feel like they are getting back to normal, then you're doing it wrong." - not as a way of blaming individuals but a general reminder that the laws and guidance are restrictive. That the virus is still out there and any relaxing has to be done really carefully. (And in doing so gets a lot of stick from a proportion of people who say she's just doing it "to be different to England" and that the number of cases in Scotland don't warrant the continued restrictions )

I agree that a large part of the problem is the mixed messages coming from BJ and his cronies: not just that the rules don't apply to them but also that life is getting back to normal (viz the ad that I hadn't seen because the Scottish Government said it wasn't to be aired in Scotland as it was against our guidelines) and BJ's unclear messages (2m unless you can't, go to work unless you can't )

We said at the time that BJ changed from the "Stay Home" message to the "Keep Alert" one, with the Nudge Unit changing the chevrons from red to green , that this was a not so subtle way of shifting the blame from the Government's response to the pandemic to any resurgence being the "people's" fault

From my point of view i HAVE to start doing things again. I have long term problems with social anxiety and lockdown has created issues for me.

If i dont start getting back into doing a limited number of things outside the house, i will develop full blown aggrophobia. Dh is really concerned about me.

Its proving too easy to hide behind covid as an excuse for not leaving the house.

Its not just me either. DS needs to go out for social reasons, stimulation, educational reasons and exercise. Even if thats really limited in how we do that.

I do think that to some extent, everyone needs to be leaving the house in limited ways now, whilst the weather is good. This is the respite period before autumn and winter and its going to get harder again.

And i know the situation we are in is very comfortable. Its really not the case for a lot of other people we know and most of them will still have it easier than a lot of other simply because we live in a 'good' area.

Dh has seen a few friends simply because they are having such a hard time. For example the one whose wife needs caring for after having covid and developing long term brain problems and physical symptoms. Or the one who has a mother with dementia.

Thats not counting the one who is going bankrupt as his business is going under as its lost so many contacts worth thousands. Or the one whose wife has kicked him out and has lost his job and hes having to move away to go live with his parents. Or the one whose mother is currently in a half way hospital following a fall - he cant see her and he lives halfway across the country from - she wont be able to return to her house. Or the one currently using a foodbank.

I could go on.

I really think that this is being massively overlooked by a lot of people. Its important.

In terms of historic patterns, where we see economic cliff edges we see massive rises in suicides.

Actually I worded that wrong: Nicola Sturgeon has been saying' "If you think things are back to normal, you're doing it wrong." Subtle but important difference to getting back to normal, which is of course what we are trying - carefully - to do.

She is also always careful to thank us, the people, for complying with the constraints (but leaves it to Jason Leitch, our Chief Science Officer, to give us the lectures about why it is important )

Red - I can understand your fears - and the fears of your dh. It is indeed a balancing act, and one that Downing Street has not managed well

Yes Red. I think the limbo state where, as pretty says, we are told things are back to normal when clearly they aren't isn't helping. We needed more financial help for businesses and the arts (I saw the Phantom of The Opera has shut down despite being the longest running in West End). This limbo is psychologically damaging when added to physical issues with loved ones sick or separated, particularly if the perception is that everyone has moved on. I hate the govt for the way they are handling this. In some ways I wish the 2nd wave would start in earnest and they would be forced to rethink financial packages and support and get stricter with messaging but it worries me that they won't.

Re the comments from Sage about unrest and racial tension i think you have to reflect on patterns of unemployment.

Historically the pattern is where you get levels of unemployment of over 30% (particularly in young populations) you get periods of instability and civil unrest.

Covid is pushing this in some areas and that does pose a risk especially since we already know that race relations are a social fracture point (which has been widening in the past 4 years in particular).

Being aware that its an area of sensitivity is the very least i expect from SAGE tbh.

The problem is we also have individuals with considerable power and influence who know about this without the need for SAGE to tell them and are happy to use this for their own political gain and advantage.