Westministenders: A Year of Johnson

[RedToothBrush]

So having given the benefit of the doubt...

... whats your reflections?

Good (and yes do have some thoughts on the positive - challenge yourself on this one as its important) and the bad (and yes this is the easy bit but keep it within reason)?

@XingMing

A very brief read on the early years on the exploration of the American continent should tell you that it wasn't all based on slavery. The Confederate States, on the Atlantic coast were. But the people who explored the interior, and mapped it, measured it out and settled there to farm, and who can claim to have settled it, and then built the railways and roads that now cross do not deserve the trashing you seem to think they deserve.

The people who were there beforehand and who were treated abominably by those explorers and settlers might have something to say about that. Not slavery but exploitation indeed and I'm surprised no one else has called you out on this point.

iirc, nearly 1000 years later, some descendants of Normans still own a lot of wealth and land

The very sudden quarantine does suggest panic to me at the rise in Spanish cases,
because obviously it pisses off many UK holiday-makers caught up in this

If it's supposed to be pressure re Brexit, the govt will have to start breathing menaces, rather than looking to be reacting in panic

A blanket ban makes the rules / theoretical enforcement clearer ..... but of course enforcement looks non-existent anyway

The rules aren't about enforcement. They are about deterrence. Its the only way it works in practice.

As it stands the only way the rules will be enforced is if you are reported by a third party or if you test positive after returning.

My thought was that if you return from spain and get ill with the threat of a fine over your head are you less likely to get yourself tested for covid? Probably less likely unless you are very ill, which might mean you carry on with normal life whilst carrying the virus to avoid being fined. In which case the quarantine rule could actually make it harder to pick up new clusters originating from abroad making it totally counterproductive.

The whole policy only works if the aim if to deter travel in the first place. This makes the uk government look as if they are in control. Thus making it a pr exercise in many respects for this reason. Into which doubling down fits into nicely from the government 's pov.

"some BLM people are angry enough to simply want destruction"

There is a danger of an enemy exploiting an angry and oppressed minority to stir up trouble,
it's an obvious weakness

I suspect Putin is stirring up both sides

The problem with not addressing the oppression is that it eventually explodes
It's happened before in the USA

but maybe NI Catholics are the most worrying example now:
the SDLP always tried the peaceful route but got nowhere, so many Catholics in desperation turned to a terrorist organisation and eventually voted for their political wing
The oppression should have been stopped much earlier, hence avoiding the Troubles - and the legacy now of a rampant, powerful Sinn Féin North & South

The stats thread reminded me that USA totals of deaths & cases will now be collated by the White House instead of the CDC

and I've speculated that if Biden wins there might be a large "death spike" in January, when he formally takes over !

All previous US presidents, Republican or Democrat, tried to calm down situations of racial tension

Trump is the first POTUS to deliberately try to start a race war
Reportedly he's frightening some moderate Republican groups who are turning on him for this, as well as his COVID irresponsibility

There are no limits to what he will do to stay in power ... and maybe also to avoid prosecution

It could perhaps be suggested that Nixon sought to benefit from stoking racial tensions?

Tricky Dicky Nixon developed the GOP's "Southern Strategy" which permanently captured votes from angry racist Southern Democrats after LBJ brought in Civil RIghts laws

However, Nixon just offered those Southern votes a home; he didn't try to stir up a race war
He was a shit who turned out to be a crook, but he was intelligent and sane

It's interesting that Roger Stone, who was one of Nixon's dirty trickster's, went to work for Trump,
who has recently commuted his sentence for felonies committed while working for Trump

All along, Stone refused to inform on Trump, obviously secure in the belief he would receive a pardon for loyalty

When I first heard the name Roger Stone again during the Mueller investigation,
I couldn't believe it was the same crooked fixer from the Nixon era of the early 1970s !

The Asian American story may not be one of slavery but it is most certainly one of exclusion, exploitation and racism. And my Asian friends on the west coast experience shocking and increasing levels of racism in everyday life and in the workplace. Historically they are the only race to have been excluded from America and from American citizenship by law, in the late 19th and early 20th century. There were internment camps for “illegal” Chinese immigrants to California even before the Japanese were interned in the Second World War . Modern white supremacists propagate the stereotype of Asians as the “model minority”, a compliant self sufficient minority who keep their heads down and go on to economic success “ The racial justice community often ignores the plight of Asian-Americans because their successful image is frequently thrown in black and brown faces to silence their cries for improved treatment. This isolates Asian-Americans from other minorities who otherwise would be allies in the battle against anti-Asian bigotry. White supremacy’s divide-and-conquer strategy has proven formidable.” It is far from the whole story of the experience of Asian minorities. “ By not studying how racism impairs Asian-American lives, we underestimate and miss crucial intelligence on how white privilege sabotages the hopes and dreams of people of color. The Asian-American story differs from the black story which differs the Latino story, but each, along with the Native American story, must be examined and mastered. Each, when pieced together, form a puzzle that we must assess in all its troubling detail”. This article is a good summary of the Asian American experience and of modern issues of racism. theundefeated.com/features/why-we-must-talk-about-the-asian-american-story-too/

However, Nixon just offered those Southern votes a home; he didn't try to stir up a race war
He was a shit who turned out to be a crook, but he was intelligent and sane

I disagree, BCF.

He was always a crook and on top of that an opportunist, and he knew exactly what he was doing when he made his appeals to racist whites and to the 'silent majority', encouraging knee jerk right wing reactionaries to lose all sense of shame and flourish.

He moved the Overton Window significantly to the right and he inaugurated the era of extreme tribalism in American politics.

If there had been no Nixon there would have been no Rush Limbaugh, no Reagan with his 'welfare queen' appeal to racist right wingers.

Perhaps it's too much to hope there would have been no 'greed is good', but after Nixon there could never again be any chance of an honest debate over that and all that it meant for public policy. The debasement of public discourse began with Nixon.

That Fox News article linked above (by Pepperwort) is typical of the dog whistle / fear mongering / race baiting that Fox is infamous for.

Clearly Fox is seeking to stoke fears of another Summer of 68 in the run up to the election, drive the law and order enthusiasts into the Trump camp, and scuttle Biden's hopes of attracting collar county-of-major-city votes that went to Trump in 2016.

These populous, prosperous collar counties are the only bloc of votes with potential Dem leanings that Biden appeals to. The Democratic National Committee has calculated that urban voters and its natural supporters are not going to vote for Trump.

All of this has always been there - the American Revolution was financed by money generated by slaves after all. But the ugliness that has never been far from the surface is parading down main street in broad daylight now, after a few decades when America perhaps had reason to believe it was ready to face the hypocrisy and the bunkum and do better.

The call to choose sides is now being sounded. The sides are being defined by Fox. We will see as the convention season opens and as we slide into November how much appeal the side of 'order before all other considerations' has.

Math I completely agree that Nixon's Southern policy was despicable and has led incrementally to the Republicans relying on racism

However, deliberately trying to stir up a fullblown race war is a totally different kettle of recklessness and indeed evil

It will be an odd convention season, reportedly nearly all online

Trump actually cancelling his live convention and the opportunity to strut & be adored

He doesn't do sensible & responsible, so obviously he decided it was in his own interest:

Risk of infection to him ?
Risk of too few people coming due to concerns about infection or loss of enthusiasm in Trump ?
Risk of public criticism or even the embarassment of an alternate no-hope candidate being proposed by some remaining traditional Republicans ?

I agree withRed. The quarantine stuff is a PR exercise.
Both towards British people because it shows the U.K. as being better than Spain, France or Germany (We’ll forget the local lockdown we still have or Wales etc... just to prove that).
But also as a way to separate the U.K. from the EU even more in the minds of people and make a point to the EU.
And that’s wo talking about the fact an increase of the number if cases has no meaning if said countries have very different attitudes to testing. Eg if they have track and trace system that is working, are testing people who are asymptotic etc... worth remembering when we are in the situation where the number of tests carried out in the U.K. isn’t published anymore and the track and trace is a total failure

Yes, the Spain rules do feel like Willy Waving to me too.

I’d also like to know how the r number is calculated. How do they take I to account all the asymptomatic people and the increase in testing.
How can we compare the r number we had in April with little testing done with the r number calculated now with increased testing etc...

Really curious as to how all of this is taken into account.

Trump is lashing out because he knows that his ilk are part of the setting sun
along with former imperial powers like the UK

Roll on Brexit and get that boil lanced IMHO

One thing to remember is the way the government has used the press to instill fear at the start of the lockdown. Nice work of propaganda to ensure people would stay at home.

Now I’m wondering if the same isn’t happening there because there seems to be no mention of our local lockdowns (or the issue with Bradford etc...) at all. But many mention of possible local lockdowns in Spain to show how dangerous Spain is (or France etc...).

Spanish people also holiday in the Balerics and Canary Islands so maybe including them in the isolation rules is common sense? Just saying.....

@QuestionMarkNow

I’d also like to know how the r number is calculated. How do they take I to account all the asymptomatic people and the increase in testing. How can we compare the r number we had in April with little testing done with the r number calculated now with increased testing etc...

Really curious as to how all of this is taken into account.

..... It is calculated statistically, using only confirmed cases and nowcasting

The basic principle of calculating R0 would be similar everywhere,
but different countries choose different time periods for the calculation,
for different views in the rear mirror

Germany's RKI (public health) publishes 2 values of R0, calculated using 4 days and 7 days confirmed cases:

"A sensitive 4-day-R-value can be estimated by using a 4-day moving average of the number of new cases estimated by nowcasting.

This 4-day value reflects the infection situation about one to two weeks ago.

This value reacts sensitively to short-term changes in case numbers, such as those caused by individual outbreaks.

Furthermore, outbreak dynamics may be influenced widespread testing performed among affected persons, leading to therapid detection of many additional COVID-19 cases.

This can lead to relatively large fluctuations in the estimated R-value, especially if the total number of new cases is small.
......
Similarly, the 7-day R-value is estimated by using a moving 7-day average of the nowcasting curve.

This compensates for fluctuations more effectively,
as this value represents a slightly later course of infection of about one to a little over two weeks ago."

NEW: 🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🚨Sources:
Cummings seeks minimalist U.K. state aid regime without statutory U.K. regulator after #brexit - leading to fears of “free-for-all” in UK and probs for EU-U.K. deal. My FT latest with ⁦PickardJE Stay with me.⁩ 1/thread
Ft article

This is now the 'ground zero' for Brexit trade negotiations with the EU and how the UK 'internal market' will operate after the transition period ends on December 31.

It starts this month with the UK 'internal market' white paper, here.../2

white paper

You may recall it included plans to take back 'state aid' powers to Westminster which Scots/Welsh believed were devolved (they were outraged) and to enable govt to legislate for a unified UK state aid regime "should it decide to do so"

This was a key loophole /3

Per sources hard Brexiters, led by Cummings, don't want a statutory regime. They want something "very vague and non-statutory, with a watchdog-type body that would only provide ‘persuasive force’ in the event of any egregious behaviour" or put another way a "free for all". /4

This has caused some consternation in Whitehall since in theory it means Scotland/Wales can do what they like from Jan 1 2021 - and vice versa - with no Statutory Regulator to codify the UK state aid regime. Both lawyers and insiders say this is unworkable /5

Per source familiar with plans: "the plan is an odd combination of reserving state aid [for control from London] but then agreeing to a free-for-all. They just want to be able to bung money at things and do not want UK internal market legislation cutting across that."/6

There seem to be mixed views of where this policy would lead - Scotland could find itself either being out-subsidised by England, or subsidising egregiously ahead May Holyrood elections. Either way not a recipe for stability. /7

^The Govt points out that countries like Canada don't have a domestic regulator (but do have a trade deal with the EU)...which brings us onto the EU-UK trade deal part of this story....as @MichelBarnier
and @DavidGHFrost dine in London tonight.../8^

So the question here, is can the UK have no statutory state aid regulator with teeth and still provide the "robust guarantees" that @MichelBarnier was demanding last week to unlock EU-UK trade talks /9

Recall that talks are deadlocked ("no progress" says Barnier) because the UK won't detail their new subsidy regime - even after the EU says it will step back from opening demand on ECJ oversight and dynamic alignment.

Remember the EU basically wants reassurances.../10

...that it will not face unfair competition if it gives UK 'zero tariff, zero quota' access to the EU single market. It doesn't accept the Canada comparison because of the "size and proximity" of the UK makes it too much of a threat..../11

George Peretz QC doubts the EU will do a deal without UK regulator. "Having a body issuing reports, saying ‘this was a bit naughty, don’t do it again’ in the place of a proper independent regulator with teeth is just not going to cut the mustard” /12

So why won't Mr Frost table a regime?

Is he holding out for last-minute concessions? Is it just brinkmanship? Or are Cummings and co deadly serious? And will they stand their ground continuing to argue a 'basic' FTA only needs a 'basic' State Aid regime? /13

Worth noting as an aside that this row have been raging for months - Andrea Leadsom was clashing with Cummings on this in the autumn when Biz Sec, per three sources - but she got nowhere before she got the chop /14

As a source familiar with those discussions recalled.
"If you're out [of EU], Dom would say, why would you tie yourself down to your own similar or same state aid regime as Brussels? His view was that once you've left, you should just do whatever you want." /15

But would that argument hold IF that triggers a 'no deal' with the EU?

THAT'S what the September/October crunch will reveal?

Will Boris Johnson overrule Cummings at the last, as he did last October?

Questions, questions. /16

Or perhaps there is a point where the UK's FTA deal is SO emaciated (nothing on rule of origin, prof services, transport etc) that the EU caves to UK suggestion of just managing it through a dispute resolution mechanism that punishes distorting subsidies after the fact?/17

You hear both sides speculating the other won't die on their version of this hill.

Will the EU really risk a 'no deal' when UK is asking for so little?

Will UK risk a 'no deal' when it could do a deal with the EU and still a fair amount? /18

This comes down to a tustle between Mr Cumming's ideological aversion to the EU 'administrative state'....

And the EU's preparedness to do a 'no deal' and accept short-term disruption to avoid what it sees as long-term risk of being outflanked by UK? /19

The govt is clear. It was Theresa May that agreed to a CMA-style regulator, not Boris Johnson

Per spox: “We have always been clear we will be moving away from the EU’s state aid rules to create our own, sovereign subsidy control regime.” /20

I can still see ways a deal could be done - one idea mooted by jamesrwebber is to put a 'floor' on state aid (say £50-£75m) before it becomes a UK/EU issue? That way there's quite a lot of wiggle room for Dom's pet projects...which brings us back to the UK stability point. /21

As a figure from a devolved administration puts it, it sets up a world of "power politics" where an independent regulator is replaced by arm-twisting. As things stand, it looks headed for pretty choppy waters...on both home and EU fronts /ENDS

So fucked part 3552

Telegraph story:

'Tories demand BBC stop showing Nicola Sturgeon daily briefings as they are SNP political broadcast.'

I haven't seen them - maybe they are - but that is rather the advantage of being the incumbent in office. The right to speak to citizens on matters of public interest. The Tories should try it some time.