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Brexit

Westminstenders: Political vacuums are very bad things

987 replies

RedToothBrush · 09/05/2020 23:18

Johnson has been notible (once again) but his absence.

Whilst we appreciate he has been ill and has a new baby, we are in the midst of a national crisis and a sense of leadership and guidance from our prime minister has been lacking.

And its not gone unnoticed.

Not just by the press. And not just by opposition. Nor NHS and care managers. But on the ground where it matters.

The lack of the sense of seriousness has dissipated. The sense of duty to country to behave. The idea that it will some how be all over this week when it doesn't appear to be the government strategy. The total lack of policy for a week whilst it's become clear bit by bit that these things have been under discussion and decided upon prior to the supposed key meeting on Thursday from the announcements from the regional assemblies. All in favour of a TV stunt tomorrow night.

Let's see how that goes.

The grandstanding isn't a substitute for detail and substance in a crisis. And we still have the looming show down at the end of June over extension of transition. More optics. More lack of practicality at a time when things will really be on the brink.

The next month will be telling and we hit the wall of economic reality which will bring the whole world crashing in on the lives of so many people.

This is the calm before the storm. Enough the sunshine. Enjoy the time with families. Before this is over everything will have changed for so many.

This is just the start of things unravelling and it needs someone to take control and draw up solid blueprints for all our futures. Is a man who is so frequently awol from where he is supposed to be and doesn't take commitments and responsibilities seriously, really the man for that?

Churchill had a vision for the country that cited housing as our second social service, the NHS being our first.

Will Johnson manage to some how forge out so grand new venture which gives the resource and rewards it deserves to the NHS (beyond lipservice and empty platitudes and clapping, that recognises the importance of social care and can stop the almost inevitable coming wave of homelessness and unemployment

And can he do it without selling us off as a basement bargain to the us?

OP posts:
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DGRossetti · 17/05/2020 14:02

The US will not deploy it's military anywhere that it is subject to local law.

Hence the Visiting Forces Act.

Although given that the US military were much more noose-happy in a rather bad way ("standard drop" over the perfected UK "long drop") that wasn't the best outcome for GIs during the war.

DGRossetti · 17/05/2020 14:33

Maybe we are in a film after all ?

There's just been an interval, and we're starting the second part ...

www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/chinese-ambassador-israel-dead-tel-aviv-home-200517083940721.html

The Chinese ambassador to Israel, Du Wei, has been found dead in his home north of Tel Aviv, according to the Israeli foreign ministry and police.

No cause of death was given, and Israeli police on Sunday said it had opened an investigation.

(contd)

DGRossetti · 17/05/2020 14:39

Funny, some phrases echo through history ?

"Rome (Honorius) says 'Britain must look to it's own defences' after troops withdrawn ..." 410 CE

Westminstenders: Political vacuums are very bad things
borntobequiet · 17/05/2020 14:53

Does Gove look as though the air is being sucked out of him or is it just me?

borntobequiet · 17/05/2020 14:54

(I don’t mean that I look as though I’m having the air sucked out of me.)

Peregrina · 17/05/2020 15:19

The Fishing Quota is not as simple as the Brexiters would like us to believe. Surprise, surprise - NI and Scotland voted Remain, but have retained ownership of most of their fishing. England voted for Brexit, and had already sold large chunks of its quota. The industry is negligible in Wales but is also in foreign hands.
These Brexiters really ought to have done their homework.

yellowhammers · 17/05/2020 15:37

Peregrina, I have done my homework. I know we have sold some fishing rights. That is not the issue.
The issue is that the EU want the same rights to our fish as they had when we were in the EU.

DGRossetti · 17/05/2020 15:52

Meanwhile, ^Tory* MPs are starting to think the new look immigration scheme is too harsh.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-immigration-rules-brexit-nhs-deaths-boris-johnson-a9516786.html

Coronavirus: ‘World has changed’ and harsh new immigration rules must be rethought, Tory MPs tell Boris Johnson

Conservative MPs have called on Boris Johnson to rethink his harsh new immigration rules, because “the world has changed” with the vital role played by lower-paid migrant staff during the pandemic.

Ahead of the plans reaching the Commons on Monday, former ministers have spoken out about their fears for the NHS and social care, as well as tourism, hospitality and farming – one branding the rules “stupid”.

One Tory MP warned of “very serious consequences” if care homes – where a quarter of Covid-19 deaths have taken place – lose more staff, while a second pointed out that many hospital cleaners and porters are EU migrants.

Caroline Nokes, a former Home Office minister, called for urgent changes, telling The Independent: “If the last six weeks have shown us anything, it is that we are dependent upon workers from all round the globe, but in large numbers the EU, for many essential roles.”

And Stephen Hammond, a former health minister, said: “I believe an exemption for social care workers is one that would be widely welcomed.”

The crackdown drawn up by home secretary Priti Patel – to replace free movement of EU citizens, from next January – will impose a minimum salary threshold of £25,600 for most workers seeking to enter the UK.

There will be no exemptions for so-called low-skilled jobs, other than seasonal workers, and social care has been excluded from a list of shortage occupations with a more lenient wage floor of as low as £20,480.

Around 70 per cent of the 200,000 EU migrants who come to the UK each year are expected to be excluded by the new rules, officials believe – which would mean around 140,000 shut out.

Even before the coronavirus laid bare how care services depend on migrant workers – some of whom have paid the ultimate price – the package was branded “a disaster” by social care leaders, who fear a deepening recruitment crisis.

Ms Nokes said she supported what the Home Office calls a “points-based system”, recognising education level, ability to speak English and shortage occupations, which will apply to migrants from anywhere in the world.

But she warned: “The Home Office will also have to build in flexibilities to make sure we don’t run out of carers, child care workers, farm labourers, road hauliers, retail assistants.

“These may not be regarded as ‘skilled’ workers in cold immigration terms, but do any of us look at those care workers on the front line of the battle against Covid-19 and think of them as ‘unskilled’?”

Steve Double, the MP for St Austell and Newquay, in Cornwall, said: “The proposals came out of what we thought back in December and January, but the world has changed. We are now looking at a very different world.”

On social care, he added: “There are very serious consequences if we get this wrong and there is no one to care for an elderly person in a residential home.”

Sir Roger Gale, the MP for North Thanet, in Kent, said: “Unless and until there is a sea change in our attitude to funding social care, we are not going to attract the people to fill the vacancies.”

He also pointed to the NHS’s dependence on migrants for ancillary staff, adding: “We have got to reflect the reality and, while I understand what Priti is trying to achieve, now is not the moment.”

One former senior minister said the plans now looked “stupid”, adding: “In the light of recent events, these salary thresholds make no sense at all and may be counterproductive, by arbitrarily increasing the salaries of the migrant workers we will still desperately need.”

Sally Warren, director of policy at The King’s Fund, said there were 122,000 social care job vacancies – while one in six staff are non-British – adding: “It is hard to see how staff shortages can be plugged without overseas recruitment.

“As the care sector struggles to cope with the ongoing impact of Covid-19, the government cannot allow international recruitment to fall off a cliff.”

The row came amid anger over Ms Patel's refusal - revealed by The Independent - to waive the £624 immigration health surcharge for foreign healthcare workers.

The Immigration and Social Security Coordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill will have its second reading on Monday, in a race against time to complete the dramatic shake-up in just seven months – with an extension to the post-Brexit transition period ruled out.

However, the bill itself will simply end free movement, with the battle to come in future months over salary thresholds and shortage occupations which will be settled in secondary legislation.

Nevertheless, the Liberal Democrats vowed to vote against the “destructive” ending of free movement in the midst of the pandemic.

“Priti Patel may consider care workers to be ‘low skilled’, but they are on the front lines protecting us and our loved ones every single day,” said Christine Jardine, the party’s home affairs spokesperson.

The new rules will require migrants to speak English to “B1” level, enabling someone to, for example, open a bank account, or cope with “most situations” at home, work or leisure.

The are expected to be charged around £1,200 for a work visa, or £900 in a shortage occupation – the same fee paid by non-EU migrants currently.

Ms Patel has hailed Brexit as a “once-in-a-generation opportunity to strengthen the security of the UK border”, blaming free movement for letting in illegal immigrants, terrorists, drugs and guns.

“We will attract the brightest and the best from around the globe, boosting the economy and our communities, and unleash this country’s full potential,” she said in February.

DrBlackbird · 17/05/2020 17:05

Problem DGR is that those in favour of easing immigration rules are drawing their conclusions based on a rational argument. They can't win against the emotional arguments deployed by the likes of Patel and her simple solutions to complex problems. Immigrants = Bad so Brexit = Good.

Emilyontmoor · 17/05/2020 17:11

Cornwalllass Why would being a small waspy village mean the risk was low? My parents had the virus in early March in a small waspy village with a small school . In fact although at the time the GP was assuming it could not be Covid because there had been no contact with anyone who had been in China or Italy and there were only supposed to be 4 cases in the whole county, it turns out was a hotspot and the NHS have finally got around to trying to find out how it got in there and spread..... I am resident in a London suburb and they are the only people I know who have had the virus, or rather the symptoms, they were never tested and I obviously don't know that my whole household / suburb didn't get it asymptomatically. Whilst it has clearly spread unequally in areas of deprivation it only takes one person..... I'd be worried if I was a teacher too, this government is clinging on to its complacency......

MockersxxxxxxxSocialDistancing · 17/05/2020 17:12

Today's Follies were hot by a computer glitch, which helpfully showed that the journos questions are all pre-submitted for approval.

Nice line of argument from Dalek Sharma: If UK develops a vaccine, it's ours and no forringers are having it, but if forrigners develop a vaccine, we shall demand our share.

Sound familiar?

DGRossetti · 17/05/2020 17:23

Nice line of argument from Dalek Sharma: If UK develops a vaccine, it's ours and no forringers are having it, but if forrigners develop a vaccine, we shall demand our share.

Given how few people trusted the "brand UK" "app", I can only imaging the take up of a "brand UK" vaccine would be lower. Unless enforced. Which isn't out of the question. Too late for a stance on bodily autonomy now though.

JeSuisPoulet · 17/05/2020 20:45

Exactly DGR, trust in the govt is low as they show that they don't understand "the science" that makes perfect sense to the rest of the world. Their attempts at blaming "the science" are going to create further problems when it comes to vaccination. We already had a problem with decreasing uptake in well established vaccinations before all of this...

Why anyone would look at the pigs ear we are making out of COVID and think "that country wants to attract the brightest and best" and jump on a plane to come here to live, is beyond me. I'd be off to sensible Greece for some cheap housing, EU regs and freedom of movement and nice weather!

JeSuisPoulet · 17/05/2020 20:49

Oh and re "our fish" I must have missed the newly tightened border controls that gave them passports? Do we do the same with swallows I wonder? Can't have those sneaky buggers coming here, eating our insects and using our twigs for nests Angry. I hope they don't live off the state and earn enough or we might have to send them back where they came from. Bloody nature, thinks it can do what it likes. We're British!

TheABC · 17/05/2020 21:25

||www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/17/labour-to-plan-green-economic-rescue-from-coronavirus-crisis||

This is interesting. The Tories are not going anywhere for the next four years (I think the chances of Johnson being replaced by Gov are higher). So, publishing plans like this mean either:

a) they want the Government to copy them
Or
B) bounce the Government into discussions about reinvigorating the economy.

Given the heat the Government is taking over testing/immigration/EU negotiations, I am curious about the timing on this. Neither Miliband not Stamner appears the type to stop their opponents making mistakes.

DGRossetti · 17/05/2020 21:30

Why anyone would look at the pigs ear we are making out of COVID and think "that country wants to attract the brightest and best" and jump on a plane to come here to live, is beyond me

They don't.

The UK has single handedly managed to piss away any hope it had of attracting talent (although ironically it could desperately do with it.).

The US too.

Of course you can always buy yourself more talent. But that is not what a crowd of expectant Brexiteers (and I do like the neologism Brexitists that has arisen) were expecting.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2020 21:45

" I know we have sold some fishing rights"

England & Wales fishing owners sold off the vast majority of their fishing rights for quick profits;
very little left

"The issue is that the EU want the same rights to our fish as they had when we were in the EU."

  • in return for Uk businesses having some of the same rights as when they were in the EU
BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2020 21:50

Whoever develops a vaccine - and there may be several developed by teams in different countries -
licencing rights for a fee need to be very quickly agreed - within days - with pharmaceutical firms in other countries that can produce the vaccine to supply other countries

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2020 21:58

Barnier on fishing - like all issues, quid pro quo:

The UK wants the rights of certain (highly paid) British professionals to continue to do some work within the Single Market - iirc that's especially in banking / finance & commercial law
In return for this, the EU want the rights of their fishermen to continue to fish in British waters

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech200_895

"•Why would we seek to give favourable market access conditions to certain British professionals
when our European fishermen would be excluded from British waters and risk losing their livelihoods?"

mathanxiety · 17/05/2020 22:01

www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52628283

If Vietnam hadn't quarantined all incoming travelers before it had any known cases, 40% of cases among arrivals in the country would have been missed as they were asymptomatic.

@CornwallLass, you have been placed in an impossible position.
You cannot guarantee anyone's safety without widespread testing. You cannot even hope that insisting on masks for everyone, if you could force the children and their parents to wear them, would be effective. Children fiddle with masks, take them off, pull them off each other, eat lunch or sip a drink during the day.

The insistence on reopening schools is even not going to work as a means of restarting the economy.

Families with more than one child are possibly still going to require childcare for those children only in school for half a day /those at home while their siblings are in school. Families whose children have asthma or some other underlying condition cannot send children to school. Gathering at the school gates for drop off and pick up of children in the same family several times a day for the morning and afternoon classes, with babies and toddlers in tow, is a recipe for chaos and disaster. Parents who are still wfh are possibly faced with finding time for a long walk to and from school perhaps several times a day to ferry children there and back.

It's so poorly thought out it beggars comment really.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2020 22:15

Mujtaba Rahmann@Mij*_Europe

Will UK Govt walk out of EU trade talks next month, and say two sides will trade on WTO terms from January?

Prospect growing as it uses Sunday papers to pile pressure on EU ahead of next round on 1 June,
in hope of extracting concessions on level playing field? 1/3

< in case BJ hasn't noticed, the EU like almost everywhere else, is concentrating on other matters ! >

UK scaling up “no deal” preparations (again).

@michaelgove told Sky’s @SophyRidgeSky on Sunday a deal will require “a degree of flexibility” from EU which he’s sure they will “appreciate they need to show.” 2/3

< that's probably another 7 billion quid down the drain, iirc roughly about what lockdown costs the govt per month >

But don’t rule out collapse of talks in June
followed by @BorisJohnson rescuing them in autumn.
Deja vu all over again

< that's what I expect >

BigChocFrenzy · 17/05/2020 22:20

math What most European countries seem to be doing is easing their way into a system that may provide a substantial amount of childcare and / or education within a few weeks

The minimum aims are to enable children to socialise with their friends again and to let schools see how the kids have been doing, check up on problems etc

Some other countries, especially with different holiday timing, may wait until after the summer vacation

Auntlouisa · 17/05/2020 22:57

Chinese schools seem to be going back full time. Not sure how.

Singasonga · 17/05/2020 22:59

Coronavirus: ‘World has changed’ and harsh new immigration rules must be rethought, Tory MPs tell Boris Johnson

The really infuriating thing is that nothing has actually fucking changed. This time last year I was posted the ONS data showing that EU and non-EU immigrants were net-contributors to the UK economic pot, not takers. This is because we immigrants tend to arrive post-education, during our prime working years, and we are supporting a country with a large aging population who are happily retiring and using the NHS.

NOTHING has changed, FFS.

Peregrina · 17/05/2020 23:00

"The issue is that the EU want the same rights to our fish as they had when we were in the EU."

As I see it, the English and Welsh boat owners sold their rights voluntarily. I imagine that they could offer to buy them back, if they offered the right price, but so far, the Government doesn't seem willing to help them with some financial assistance to do this.