Westminstenders: Political vacuums are very bad things

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has been notible (once again) but his absence.

Whilst we appreciate he has been ill and has a new baby, we are in the midst of a national crisis and a sense of leadership and guidance from our prime minister has been lacking.

And its not gone unnoticed.

Not just by the press. And not just by opposition. Nor NHS and care managers. But on the ground where it matters.

The lack of the sense of seriousness has dissipated. The sense of duty to country to behave. The idea that it will some how be all over this week when it doesn't appear to be the government strategy. The total lack of policy for a week whilst it's become clear bit by bit that these things have been under discussion and decided upon prior to the supposed key meeting on Thursday from the announcements from the regional assemblies. All in favour of a TV stunt tomorrow night.

Let's see how that goes.

The grandstanding isn't a substitute for detail and substance in a crisis. And we still have the looming show down at the end of June over extension of transition. More optics. More lack of practicality at a time when things will really be on the brink.

The next month will be telling and we hit the wall of economic reality which will bring the whole world crashing in on the lives of so many people.

This is the calm before the storm. Enough the sunshine. Enjoy the time with families. Before this is over everything will have changed for so many.

This is just the start of things unravelling and it needs someone to take control and draw up solid blueprints for all our futures. Is a man who is so frequently awol from where he is supposed to be and doesn't take commitments and responsibilities seriously, really the man for that?

Churchill had a vision for the country that cited housing as our second social service, the NHS being our first.

Will Johnson manage to some how forge out so grand new venture which gives the resource and rewards it deserves to the NHS (beyond lipservice and empty platitudes and clapping, that recognises the importance of social care and can stop the almost inevitable coming wave of homelessness and unemployment

And can he do it without selling us off as a basement bargain to the us?

@JeSuisPoulet ^what do you think of this unpublished study? www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/10/scientists-concerned-that-coronavirus-is-adapting-to-humans^

I haven't read it properly yet, will take a look later. First glance at abstract, meh? It's not news ... but if they have evidence for selection, that would be interesting.

Louise
"So, again, what are we to be offered in return for accepting this?"
I don't understand this question.
What would you like to be offered?

Looks like I picked the wrong time to give up smoking

Researchers uncover MORE evidence that smokers may be protected from the deadly coronavirus as Italian study finds a 'very low' number of infected patients were hooked on cigarettes

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8306781/Researchers-uncover-evidence-smokers-protected-deadly-coronavirus.html

So, again, what are we to be offered in return for accepting this?

Time. Time to negotiate a proper trade deal without the gun to your head that is the current deadline. Time to get a good deal for the UK and not be forced to either accept unpalatable requirements from the EU or to leave without a deal, which would be a major hit to the UK economy.

We were supposed to have 2 years to negotiate a trade deal, that was the plan, but it's 11 months now, and a pandemic on top of that. It's not good negotiating conditions. I believe it's worth another year of EU payments in order to get a better deal.

I was going to ask a similar question as AuldAlliance has done. Now that you have got your Brexit, what do you want to see Johnson negotiate on your behalf? Not that he is going to come and ask you.

Something like 30% of our food comes from the EU. Are you happy to see tariffs imposed on all of these, so that you pay more? Do you really expect the USA, Australia and New Zealand to make up the shortfall? Or at least make up the shortfall in the short term e.g. the next five years?

I must say, I find it a bit sad when Brexiters, who apparently wanted to leave the EU more than anything else in the world, don't even realise that it's been delivered for them. Aren't blue passports good enough?

He was Peregrina, unfortunately, the country is still subject to EU law, and still paying for it.

The European Communties Act 1972 has technically been repealed by the European Union Withdrawal Act of 2018 but under the 2020 Withdrawal Agreement Act the 1972 Act is still effective until Dec ‘20 (unless transition is extended).

Auld that’s a question I hoped someone would ask. In answering it I am completely in agreement with Bigchoc, I expect to be offered nothing at all.

What I’d want is another matter. A “once only” type of law would be almost impossible to enforce, since one Parliament cannot bind another.

If I was struggling with a serious illness, I wouldn't choose to hit myself hard with a hammer a few times,
just because the illness is more serious

Recovering from the illness and getting back to normal would be a lot more painful if I've smashed some bones

The effect of a No Deal Brexit was always going to hit exporters - and those who rely on importing components and raw materials

Now it will hit businesses already seriously damaged by COVID
COVID may be a "force multiplier for No Deal damage"

A No Deal may make the UK's Depression significantly worse and longer lasting than the damage to other leading eonomies

• the UK already has suffered from this govt's dithering and cockups.

We won't know for some time

However, before COVID, I had assumed there was almost no chance of rejoinng within the next 40 years
I now think there is a small chance that No Deal self-harm could force a consequently badly damaged UK to apply to Rejoin in desperation.

So, let Brexiters do their worst ... ?

If there is a transition extension BigChoc, which would entirely suit those with a pro-EU outlook, what trade off might you propose to placate those of us who don’t share such a viewpoint?

I rather think you are missing something. With his 80 seat majority Johnson can do what he likes. Don't forget his main aim is to stay in power. If he senses that the public mood has changed and most people would prefer a deal with the EU that is what he will offer. If he thinks not then he will carry on with the deal with the USA.

Remind yourself about the position the DUP were in, in the last Parliament - it was definitely the tail wagging the dog. Johnson got in and the DUP plus the whole of NI (which I suspect you have forgotten about, reading earlier posts of yours), got thrown under the bus.

Now I expect that Johnson and cronies will try to renege on that part of the WA which concerns NI, and there he will come up against the clout of the Irish diaspora in the USA.

Louise - how about 1/ not dying
2/ preservation of some kind of wealth/lifestyle for the greater community.... living in a country that hasn't bankrupted itself

... and what trade off are you going to offer us? Oh that's right - this is a special kind of democracy where if you voted remain, you no longer have a right to a voice or opinion....

I rather think you are missing something. With his 80 seat majority Johnson can do what he likes.

That 80-seat majority is exclusively for Brexit. It might evaporate if asked to extend the transition period.

Leaving the EU is not like having a full bladder and busting for a piss...... single "need" straightforward reaction.

This has so many effects on so many businesses- and none of those effects can be planned for - bacuase youf kit can't and have really decided what brexit means.... (is or isn't there a boarder in the Irish Sea? Do we need to check imports /exports from Ireland)

Jesus for someone who is bright, you don't happen to come over all toddler-ish when you think you might have to wait for your "treat"

No election is due until 2024, which I suspect will come in the summer of that year, rather than December. Johnson will have to decide which faction in Parliament is strongest - which one does he have to appease?
I would imagine that the hard-right people would win, but I also imagine that most of them are fair weather friends and would busily rewrite their histories if expedient to do so.

So if we had a British SNL, then we have our Alec Baldwin:

twitter.com/RealMattLucas/status/1259566662791106569

Any stats experts work out what the chances of no MPs dying from C-19 are given the current figures ?

I think more of Their Lordships are in the at-risk demographic.

I notice the Grauniad science editor is Ian Sample - proof of God, or at the very least nominative determinism at work ?

Thanks BigChoc for clarification because the news stories often leave out important details. It feels to me that this gov't has essentially given up on following the science. Putting into play the necessary regime to track and trace perhaps deemed too challenging.

And Louise it may seem that Remainers want the extension because of some faint completely ridiculous hope that somehow the UK rejoins the EU. Please be assured that whilst the flicker of hope remained prior to the election, it has been completely and officially extinguished now.

Rather, the Remainers new hope (mine anyhow) is that the UK will negotiate a comprehensive trade deal that honours the WA, doesn't throw NI and it's fragile peace under the bus, and allows UK businesses to operate reasonably efficient supply chains in order for us consumers (food, medicine, goods etc) in order for the economy to take the least hit possible under the circumstances i.e. now that we've left the EU.

Would you not share the same hopes? If not, what are yours?

I just can’t decide whether the Comms clusterfuck is accidental or purposeful. With Cummings and the Vote Leave team on board I would have expected better Comms, catchy 3 word slogans that made sense (which initially we did have) & less clunky manipulation but it‘s not panning out like that. Have the Cummings & co given up?

*Cummings not the Cummings (am the worst at typing on my phone! )

Well said DrBlackbird

And next question is, "What are the odds n getting that negotiated by the end of December, given the Coronavirus Constraints, and if they are low, why is the UK Government determined not to ask for an extension?"

Rhetorical question BTW

I just can’t decide whether the Comms clusterfuck is accidental or purposeful. With Cummings and the Vote Leave team on board I would have expected better Comms, catchy 3 word slogans that made sense (which initially we did have) & less clunky manipulation but it‘s not panning out like that. Have the Cummings & co given up?

Given that the current situation would seem to shrink the timescale to Cummings goal of Armageddon by a good few months, if not years, I'd say they are grinning like Cheshire cats right now.

Dr blackbird 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

PawFives, there was a discussion apparently going on a couple of weeks ago, when the government realised that to move to the next phase of this they would have to adopt a more complex message and they were concerned about how they managed to do this.

Now I personally don't think its merely a comms issue for that reason.

What lies behind it is the various ministers responsible for this policy don't fully understand what they are being told by the experts, never mind be able to convert that into laymens terms for consumption for the wider population.

They have got very good at short slogans because when they get asked difficult questions they can resort to them.

When it gets a bit more difficult they get found out and are unable to respond, because they can't wing it anymore and they have to pay attention in COBR meetings (which we are being told they are not).

Its like they would rather be doing their favourite subject at school which they are good at and have enthusiasm for rather than the key subject which they struggle at and can't be arsed putting the effort in to improve.

Cummings possibly has the ability to do Comms in this area as he does understand why the longer slogans and complex messages were not cutting through. Whether he wants to is another matter and whether Ministers therefore become useful idiots, then becomes a serious question.

They are a one trick pony, which has proved they can win elections and votes. They are yet to prove they can convert this success to practical policy which achieves the aims they claimed their ambition would.

I also reflect on the comment that I saw today blaming the experts for being shit, rather than the government who are taking advice from experts and converting that to policy and communicating it to the public.

Politics is about communication a message to the public. Its not the experts and scientists job to do that...

Oh and Hancock is also the other fall guy.

Thats Remain leaning Hancock who said he'd never support a Johnson led government about two weeks before endorsing him as his choice for PM.