Westminstenders: Political vacuums are very bad things

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has been notible (once again) but his absence.

Whilst we appreciate he has been ill and has a new baby, we are in the midst of a national crisis and a sense of leadership and guidance from our prime minister has been lacking.

And its not gone unnoticed.

Not just by the press. And not just by opposition. Nor NHS and care managers. But on the ground where it matters.

The lack of the sense of seriousness has dissipated. The sense of duty to country to behave. The idea that it will some how be all over this week when it doesn't appear to be the government strategy. The total lack of policy for a week whilst it's become clear bit by bit that these things have been under discussion and decided upon prior to the supposed key meeting on Thursday from the announcements from the regional assemblies. All in favour of a TV stunt tomorrow night.

Let's see how that goes.

The grandstanding isn't a substitute for detail and substance in a crisis. And we still have the looming show down at the end of June over extension of transition. More optics. More lack of practicality at a time when things will really be on the brink.

The next month will be telling and we hit the wall of economic reality which will bring the whole world crashing in on the lives of so many people.

This is the calm before the storm. Enough the sunshine. Enjoy the time with families. Before this is over everything will have changed for so many.

This is just the start of things unravelling and it needs someone to take control and draw up solid blueprints for all our futures. Is a man who is so frequently awol from where he is supposed to be and doesn't take commitments and responsibilities seriously, really the man for that?

Churchill had a vision for the country that cited housing as our second social service, the NHS being our first.

Will Johnson manage to some how forge out so grand new venture which gives the resource and rewards it deserves to the NHS (beyond lipservice and empty platitudes and clapping, that recognises the importance of social care and can stop the almost inevitable coming wave of homelessness and unemployment

And can he do it without selling us off as a basement bargain to the us?

Yes jesuispoulet - lockdown in NZ was much much stricter...... and enforced.
Of course they are now edging out if it.

My SIL mother became unwell in the first phase of lockdown - she was not allowed to travel down to her (about an hours drive) when they went to level 3 - she had to get a Doctors certificate from her mother's doctor , to allow her to travel. In reality if you know the back roads you could probably get down there without encountering the police - but they have been so strict with their enforcement, you don't want to risk it.

Apparently the 50 document won't be published till tomorrow now....

People in Scotland and Wales, how do you feel about the idea of possibly thousands of English walkers/joggers/water sports enthusiasts rocking up across your landmarks? It will be interesting to see if fines are doled out. If I were Sturgeon I'd be upping police presence for landmarks and beaches that might be hotspots could be a nice little earner!

DrBlackbird There have been new cases in 6 care homes, 1 geriatric hospital and 2 slaughterhouses,
which have now been locked down again - with their towns too, afaik

The total cases in the country are low enough that even these few hundred extra makes the national R0 shoot up to 1.1,
but we don't know yet whether new cases will appear elsewhere, or whether the policy of local lockdowns mean the national R0 has a lot more safety margin.

The new cases .... have made absolutely no difference to the massive push within some of the 16 german states to end all lockdown measures.

The problem is that with "only" 7,000 dead - mostly aged 80+ - in a country of 83 million,
many people are now blase about COVID and think lockdown should be abandoned to fully restart the economy,
copy Sweden....

imo too many ignorant people don't understand the risks of exponential growth,
have too much confidence that Merkel can always rescue them
and that what works in a Scandi / Nordic country of 10 million may not for a country of 83 million

.

Interesting to hear about Germany from you BigChoc if I were Boris I’d be waiting an extra week to gauge the effect of lockdown release there, which Govt sort of half did with the “from Wednesday” advice about seeking to return to work, but that’s been totally lost amid “Stay-a-Lert”

.

I've just seen a local news article on a nearby hospital in the North West.

It currently has MORE ICU patients than two weeks ago and the hospital is particularly concerned.

@TheMShip what do you think of this unpublished study? www.theguardian.com/society/2020/may/10/scientists-concerned-that-coronavirus-is-adapting-to-humans

Louise imo, BJ needs to wait until he / Hancock has organised a system of mass testing and contact tracing

Germany has been managing 500,000 tests per week, which could surge briefly to 1 million daily if needed
It has recruited and trained 20,000 people for contact tracing, certainly not just relying on a Phone App in development

If exponential growth restarts widely in Germany, those systems & resources would - hopefully -
give sufficient time for Merkel to slam back a national lockdown before the situation get out of control.

With the current state of Uk testing and the lack of a contact tracing system,
it would be a big gamble to lift lockdown

• because BJ can't rely on the amount of warning that Merkel can.

Also, Louise cutting off the UK from its existing trade deals adds to the economic damage

The UK is facing additional risks and pressures that no other country in the world chose to take on.
very unfortunate timing

Admittedly a global pandemic was not a forseeable at the time of bombastic GE campaign promises

However, if BJ doesn't request a transition extension,
then he will be wholly responsible for any resulting additional damage to the UK economy and UK exporters

Germany has been managing 500,000 tests per week, which could surge briefly to 1 million daily if needed

Boris promised us we'd be up to 200,000 a year by the end of May. Or was it a week. It may have been never. Currently I'm getting my news from the tea leaves at the bottom of my Brummie Fog tea.

(Brummie Fog: Earl Grey tea - sweetened to taste - topped with foamed milk [I use Oatley Barista] and drizzled with Salted Caramel syrup. Sugar free in my case. Sprinkles optional)

"MORE ICU patients than two weeks ago"

==> more cases in the NW 1-2 weeks ago

Do we know if the NW new case curve is decreasing ?

With the 8-9 million London pop. dominating the early course of the epidemic, it is still difficult to judge how the regions are doing

However, the FT analysis of "excess deaths" comparing 2020 to previous years, we see the NW had this 68% peak of 5,600 excess deaths just since COVID took off

Message from my youngest's headteacher this morning apologising for the lack of clarity on when his school will be opening and how they're going to do it, but assuring us that when they have clearer guidance they will be sending a detailed plan to parents.

Guess the Dept for Education wasn't pre-briefed on any of that, either.

I've heard that German labs are "retooling" atm to handle millions of antibody tests that are planned

These will be samples to estimate the % of the population that has COVID antibodies,
but afaik are not yet planned for individual "immunity passports"

Guess the Dept for Education wasn't pre-briefed on any of that, either.

Government by decree. Another check box in the "Do I live in a tinpot dictatorship ?" toolkit.

Watch out for: Cutesy nicknames for the top man (it will always be a man). So "Papa Boris", "Father of the nation" (possibly a bit too much truth in that one), "Uncle Alex" ...

BJ, Gove and Co still hiding from journos like the cowards they are. BJ is to stage another "People's Press Conference" where he is grilled by random (cough) members of the public submitting questions in advance.

In the absence of any grown-ups, Brexit Truffle-Pig Bridgen was on GMTV today and did not do very well when it came to the "Perfectly Clear" new rules which he appeared not to know.

However, if BJ doesn't request a transition extension,
then he will be wholly responsible for any resulting additional damage to the UK economy and UK exporters

No, BigChoc - it will be the EU's fault for not giving in to us, 'Remoaner' firms for not having back up plans, Corbyn's fault, Uncle Tom Cobbley an' all's fault, but it won't be BJ and his hard right wing nutters who are at fault.

I wonder if May 10th 2020 will go down in history ? The internet wasn't exactly broken, but by the time Boris puff piece was on, it was effectively not only holed below the waterline, but 2 miles down and acting as a feature for all the little fishes to play in.

I've never seen anything like it - even during the chaos of Brexit.

Here's Irvine Welsh being deliciously blunt.

He has to do more than just ask. He needs to change the law he passed, meaning Tory Brexiteers will have to vote to overturn the law to stay aligned with the EU for longer.

(as an aside, I love the fact that British English can draw on it's neighbours in Wales, Scotland and Ireland to create a language that is truly poetic when it comes to being rude ... hee-haws )

😂 but I'd rather NOT think of BJ scratching his hee-haws !

If there is a transition extension BigChoc, which would entirely suit those with a pro-EU outlook, what trade off might you propose to placate those of us who don’t share such a viewpoint?

"Brexit Truffle-Pig Bridgen was on GMTV today and did not do very well when it came to the "Perfectly Clear" new rules which he appeared not to know."

Raab was reportedly confusing everyone with rules about meeting either 1 or 2 people outside the household

Exasperating that the 50-page document,

• aka the long explanatory notes required after any BJ speech -

was not published immediately the broadcast finished

I can only assume because it hadn't been written ?

Maybe the civil service aren't consulted any more then the other 3 Uk nations,
so they also have to figure out what he meant before they can explain it to others ?

There won't be a transition extension, as I can't see Boris managing to get a bill to allow it through parliament. He's mined the harbour, so to speak. So ultimately it will (again) be our fault for electing our MPs.

At the risk of being overly cynical, if people really want to influence what's happening in the UK, they might be better of taking action that prods the oligarchy into action. After all there must be a lot of frantic phone calls right now where other "big men" (it's always men) are shouting at their flunkies "But you said it would be safe in Britain !" ...