Westministenders: The Virus

[RedToothBrush]

Its like living in a Bad Disaster B Movie.

If you thought Brexit on your TV every day was Bad, The Virus is a whole new level.

The 5pm broadcast with Johnson and friends, and the public infomation video with the unblicking Chris Witty (who has such unfortunate mannerism he makes me think he's me a Dr Who alien akin to the Slitheen).

Who knows what will happen. Just that everything has changed and our entire economy is now on life support whilst we figure out how to deal with the crisis and what on earth our exit strategy is.

Johnson has however refused to join a joint EU purchase scheme designed to assist countries through the crisis.

Meanwhile the US is about to go nuts... so what does that do to a trade deal?

More money for the NHS? More hospitals?

Well its possible that might just happen...

...I've also never seen so many people out for a run

and I used to run myself so I have an awareness of how many runners are "normal"

To control the R value of coronavirus to a manageable level for suppression they think they need at least 75% of the population to distance. Not 100%.

Martina Hyde:

(She & John Crace help keep politicians in perspective )

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/corona-prince-johnson-designated-survivors-

If it takes a once-in-100-years global pandemic to jolt people in public office into the realisation that nurses are actually quite valuable, it’s pretty hard to scale up for the next logical step.

You’re essentially looking at an extinction-level event to nudge them into the headspace where we reward said nurses even slightly better.

The manifesto page where you seek buy-in for your plan to increase public-sector pay just says “re-route a fucking asteroid towards us”

Yep, I've heard 75% distancing is a must, 80% is better, 85% safe
We don't have to control the twats; just get a big majority of the population to comply

Talking of twats - 2 of the biggest have U-turned (still twats though):

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/27/sports-direct-mike-ashley-apologises-for-poor-covid-19-actions

Mike Ashley has issued a public apology after his spat with the government about trying to keep his Sports Direct chain open when non-essential businesses were ordered to close.

https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/18340823.wetherspoons-tim-martin-says-staff-will-get-80-per-cent-wages/

[Tim Martin] The boss of pub chain JD Wetherspoon has agreed to pay around 43,000 workers up to 80 per cent of their wages while the company's bars remain closed.

Although Gove said UK cases are doubling every 3-4 days,
UK deaths may double every 2-3 days

US deaths doubling every 3 days, but New York State doubling ever 1-2 days and may soon be worse than Lombardia

Graphs:

1. Deaths by country
2. Deaths by country region
3. Cases by country

John Burn-Murdochh@jburnmurdoch* (FT)

NEW: Friday 27 March update of coronavirus mortality trajectories

• UK has more dead at this stage than any country except Spain & Italy

• US now clearly more deaths than China or Iran, could soon pass France

So, in rural/coastal areas, where we have NO police, no one will get caught, so everyone will break the 'rules'?

When I lived in a rural area most of the locals in the village pub would drink a skinful and then get in their cars and drive home. To local farmer was happy to help his mates out by towing their cars out ditches if they’d misjudged a turn etc. it appalled me, but I grew up in a city with access to public transport and taxis and walking home was an option for many of my friends.

A child in the US with COVID died because of no health insurance

How many others ?

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/17-year-old-dies-coronavirus-California-Lancaster-15161761.php

A 17-year-old Southern California boy who tested positive for coronavirus and died this week didn't have health insurance and was denied care at an urgent care center,
according to the mayor of Lancaster.

Lancaster Mayor R. Rex Parris confirmed the boy's death in a y*
and said the urgent care facility referred him to the local public hospital.
Hospitals cannot refuse treatment over payment in their emergency departments.

"En route to AV Hospital, he went into cardiac arrest,"
the mayor said. "They were able to revive him and keep him alive for about six hours.
But by the time he got there, it was too late."

Parris emphasized the need to practice social distancing and keep kids and teenagers home.
He said the incident is a reminder that once a coronavirus patient goes into respiratory issues and has trouble breathing and a fever,
it's important to call a doctor immediately.

"He'd been sick for a few days.
He had no previous health conditions," the mayor said.
"The Friday before he died, he was healthy. He was socializing with his friends. By Wednesday, he was dead."

My dd was refused care at a walk in center (although our insurance did actually cover it, we have slightly complicated insurance cards)
So I can well believe this could happen.

+ can briefly leave home to exercise only within 2 km of home
- they must have had twats driving around there too
BCF

Oh yes indeed. Traffic jams last weekend in remote, quiet parts of the Wicklow Mountains...
But if Elsie and her son and her carer drive to somewhere quiet and pretty for a walk
should that be anybody else's business ?
ListeningQuietly

It absolutely should. Because everyone and their aunt will have the same idea.

To be fair, Dublin is surrounded on three sides by stunningly scenic areas, with many lovely beaches too. But either there is a lockdown or their isn't. The scenery will still be there when all of this is over.

Morning Everyone.

First day out of complete self isolation and I went for a dawn walk in the woods. It was stunning. Absolutely stunning. Towards the end I met three people separately, and each time we waved and smiled, keeping an ostentatious amount of space between us.

I am lucky enough to live on the edge of a series of wooded valleys, which lead out onto the moors. I know routes where highly unlikely to meet anyone.

I would personally struggle with complete lockdown ( eg 50 m from house to walk dog, or whatever ) as I have no garden, except a small patch of ground round corner for veg.

My view re police is that they will be focussed on breaking up larger groups deliberately flouting the new legislation, and further down the line possibly guarding supermarkets and policing public disorder.

If tougher requirements are imposed on individuals , in many communities it will be left to,peer pressure to comply I suspect.

www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Excellent article in The Atlantic about why America is doomed.

In a very built up area with one park, everybody is going to go there, aren't they? No room there.

But at least if some went 20 mins down the road in their car to the massive country park there would be a bit of space to socially distance yourself while walking
My local parks, playgrounds, school playgrounds and all municipal leisure facilities both indoor and outdoor, and all playing fields both public and private have all closed. Police are ready to make examples of anyone trying to congregate there or spending all day out walking their dog.

Today it was announced that there are 17 confirmed cases in the densely populated suburb of a major US city where I live. There were 3 last week. That is 17 who were tested.

People can go out and walk their dog up and down their own little patch of street. Or do exercise videos in their own living room, with the windows open if they want some air until it gets too hot. It will soon be AC season, too hot to go out for long stretches or open windows.

Fucksake everyone struggles with lockdown. I have two small kids who haven’t been out of the house for over two weeks. We’re still doing it.

It really doesn't depend where you live.

Stay home except for essential forays out, and suck it up until the peak is flattened.

We're sticking rigorously to the one form of exercise per day, on foot, for around an hour or so.

I'm in two minds about the driving somewhere for a walk thing.

On the one hand, it is "not essential" and could contribute to spread of virus, and there is a risk of mishap (accident, breakdown, etc). On the other hand, I know we're fortunate to live in a quiet-ish suburb on the edge of green spaces, so that we can go for proper walks with no danger of crashing into crowds of people on the pavements, and many people don't have that luxury.

Advice has always been one form of exercise per day. And five fruits and veg. Or whatever. How many people adhered to that?

Approximately half of the residents of my municipality have no garden.

There are no children out in the parks and playgrounds. None. They are staying indoors.

They are bouncing on beds, doing gymnastics using couch cushions or mattresses placed on a living room floor. Their parents are trying to get some work done. The children are photobombing conference calls. The parents are also doing exercises in front of their TVs where there are yoga sessions and aerobics you can do in your own home.

People with dogs take them out and walk up and down the street. You don't need a park for toileting your dog.

Many people here don't run a car as we have decent public transport. No chance of getting 50 miles out of the built up areas to take a walk somewhere pleasant. All the local beaches and waterfront area - closed. Public transport - a vector for germs. People are being very sensible here and still the number of tested and confirmed cases is rising.

What it might rise to if people were to make excuses for heading out for essential walks that weren't essential last week, nobody knows.

Sensible = staying home.

Many of you are very focused on lack of police numbers to enforce this - I think what the government is relying on is self-compliance..... however if people continue to not, well then the military may become involved......

Small market town close to me - where I went to get groceries during the week. Police out stopping people who weren't purposely walking into the store. They maybe spread thin but they are out .....

Compliance seems to be good out here in the suburbs.

I do see a few people on my daily walk doing the same but they are observing the two metre rule.

Only place that is problematic is our corner shop as its quite tricky to stay two metres away - so they're restricting numbers allowed at one time to two.

On a larger scale, concerts, events - even football was cancelled on an entirely voluntary basis before government advised them to do so. If it wasn't for the arseholes who buggered off to the pub or up snowdonia, I'd say I was rather surprised at how compliant we are as a nation (or how sensible we are).

If it wasn't for the arseholes who buggered off to the pub or up snowdonia,

Where the Royals, Charles and Camilla, William and Kate and family set a spectacularly bad example. There was absolutely no reason why any of them could not self-isolate where they live, given the amount of space they have. They are not cooped up in one or two bedroom flats.

Am in Italy, live in a small apartment with no garden and have a dog and 13 year old. Our restrictions have been increased as the weeks go on. If they aren’t strict from the start they won’t work. I have gone from going to the park with my son, to walking the dog down my usual pathways (always at a distance of course), to now being restricted to 200m radius of house with all parks etc closed. I have done everything to the letter of the law at the time. Unless restrictions are strict with no room for interpretation lockdown won’t happen properly because it is understandable that people want to interpret them in the most positive light. Because it’s really shit being locked up in a small flat for weeks with no idea of the outcome or end date. And it’s normal to think that walking in the open air at a safe distance is fine. But it isn’t - look at our death rates here.

Anyone who thinks taking a dog out is just about toileting has never owned a dog.

Compliance seems to be good out here in the suburbs.

That's my observation here in our area too - and I'm spending a lot of time gazing out of my front window

Each day I see my neighbours going out for walks/runs/bike rides, singly or strictly in household groups. There isn't a lot of footfall on our road in usual times anyway, but now on the rare occasion when there's more than one group outside, everybody observes social distancing of significantly more than 2m. I've hardly heard/seen a car on our road for days - and if I do see a vehicle, I would assume that they were going for essential things like work or food shopping. Occasionally I see somebody walk past with a shopping bag, clearly coming from our local corner shop.

Yesterday on our permitted daily walking exercise around the park, we saw a group of 3 young men kicking a football between them as they stood in a circle, far in the distance. I simply assumed they were brothers or housemates. The day before, I observed a woman doing very elegant yoga in the park, and elsewhere a man doing some sort of impressive martial arts exercise. I did not dob them in for not walking/running/cycling. I have not seen a single person using the park's outdoor exercise equipment, nor the (now locked) playground.

I'm waiting for the huge spike in cases in and around liverpool after 2000 atletico madrid fans were allowed into the UK for their champions league match.

Apparently bergamo has been so badly hit due to a football match in Milan attended by about 1/3 of its population (sky news article)