Westministenders: The Virus

[RedToothBrush]

Its like living in a Bad Disaster B Movie.

If you thought Brexit on your TV every day was Bad, The Virus is a whole new level.

The 5pm broadcast with Johnson and friends, and the public infomation video with the unblicking Chris Witty (who has such unfortunate mannerism he makes me think he's me a Dr Who alien akin to the Slitheen).

Who knows what will happen. Just that everything has changed and our entire economy is now on life support whilst we figure out how to deal with the crisis and what on earth our exit strategy is.

Johnson has however refused to join a joint EU purchase scheme designed to assist countries through the crisis.

Meanwhile the US is about to go nuts... so what does that do to a trade deal?

More money for the NHS? More hospitals?

Well its possible that might just happen...

Had 3 different local funeral homes leaflets with todays post

I think Raab, as Foreign Sec, is Johnson’s No 2? Every pun intentended.

Yes of course but he was specifically designated wasn't he? And presumably either kept in a safe place away from the virus-bearing hordes, or he has already had it so potentially immune.

If I don't sound very sympathetic it's because I'm not, but nevertheless it would be a bad thing to have your head of government out of action, so let's hope he doesn't become seriously ill.

Beware of a brutal dictatorship bearing gifts:

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-live-news-update-us-infections-outnumber-china-uk-deaths-europe-global-cases-number-500000-latest-updates?page=with:block-5e7dd60c8f08af215f6fc504#block-5e7dd60c8f08af215f6fc504

"The Spanish government has withdrawn 9,000 Chinese-made coronavirus testing kits from use after it emerged that they had an accurate detection rate of just 30%"

China and Russia have both grabbed the opportunity to extend their influence in Europe by donating or selling medical kit

However, if much of it is dud, then that could backfire

Those pesky EU standards mean members can't grandstand and suddenly manufacture a load of quick & dirty crap that doesn't do the job,
so they have been on the back foot in a fierce propoganda war

How did BJ qualify for a test?

Accurate testing is an issue even with the ordinary tests as it requires good swabbing technique and even then some people are false negatives. A young girl has died in Paris after two negative tests, they only got a positive the third time, after she was incubated.

I'm not really sure why they aren't using CT scans for diagnosis as they did in Wuhan. Apparently it's unmistakeable on a CT scan. IIRC this was why there was a big one-time jump in the Wuhan numbers, after they decided to include the CT scan positives.

How did BJ qualify for a test?

By being the prime minister?

This is one occasion where different rules are perfectly justified.

Interesting article by a pathologist in The Spectator, again highlighting that lack of testing in the UK is a real issue:

Early evidence from Iceland, a country with a very strong organisation for wide testing within the population, suggests that as many as 50 per cent of infections are almost completely asymptomatic. Most of the rest are relatively minor. In fact, Iceland’s figures, 648 cases and two attributed deaths, give a death rate of 0.3 per cent.

www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

How did BJ qualify for a test?

Has he had one ? After all, we have to take his word for it. A PM "suffering with the people" is a pretty great weapon in a PR war.

(See also: Nadine Dorries)

It would be statistically unsurprising, but highly convenient.

Be interesting to see when he "recovers" if there are then excuses for not going within a million miles of a possible carrier ...

When it comes to a man sacked from many jobs for lying, and who hid in a fridge to avoid a reported, I don't think it's too uncharitable to have some doubts about any and every thing they say.

The internet remembers ...

Early evidence from Iceland, a country with a very strong organisation for wide testing within the population, suggests that as many as 50 per cent of infections are almost completely asymptomatic

This is from the spectator and therefore highly likely to be written by someone pontificating about data they don't understand.

Given an average 5 day incubation period, and at least a 1-2 day period when people shed virus without symptoms, you don't know if people who tested positive while asymptomatic remain asymptomatic or whether they go on to develop symptoms after testing.

Given a 2-3 day doubling time in the early stages of an epidemic (as reported in many locations), if you test widely at an early stage in the epidemic you'll be testing lots of people who are at the earliest stages of infection ie they are not so much asymptomatic as pre-symptomatic.

Well put, dgr.

This is from the spectator and therefore highly likely to be written by someone pontificating about data they don't understand.

Lumped on top of a subject no one understands ...

There's something a little odd about C-19. Not the tinfoil hat type odd. Just testing our pathetically limited knowledge of viruses (and life in general). That's why the stats look odd.

Why, it's almost as if it's something new - novel even. If only scientists had told us that ages ago. (Oh, they did ....)

This is from the spectator and therefore highly likely to be written by someone pontificating about data they don't understand.

I know it’s The Spectator, which has an agenda, but the author is a Professor if Pathology, and one of his questions is variability in attribution of death on death certificates and the effect on numbers being reported.

As I said, it’s an interesting read.

long time lurker, thanks for the threads, hope you are all well.

@BoreOfWhabylon wrote this last night.
I’m wondering if CV might eventually lead to a resignation due to lingering health issues.

I suspect Boris can't wait to get away from all this and will use being "unable to deliver Brexit on time as promised" to nobly stand down as PM.

"Accurate testing is an issue even with the ordinary tests"

Yes, but these tests from China were so inaccurate that even a desperate Spanish govt had to bin them

I've read that the "good quality" tests have a 3% rate of false readings

afaik, the % death rate for any disease is calculated for people who die, out of all those who have been diagnosed with it

So for COVID-19, as for flu.

All those who were never diagnosed, usually because symptoms were too mild to report,
are ignored in such calculations

This explains why some known CV deaths, e.g. a healthy woman in her 30s who died at home,
are not included in the UK official stats

(I had assumed that anyone who was suspected of dying elsewhere from CV would be tested after death, but apparently not ?)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/west-midlands-emerges-as-a-hotspot-for-coronavirus-deaths

The UK is only testing people for coronavirus in hospital,

so people dying at home or in care homes with symptoms of the disease will be missing from the overall figures.

I've just watched our local (well-known) cannabis dealer drop a baggie off on someone's doorstep, spray it with dettol and ring the doorbell before retreating two metres.

Crazy times indeed.

Matt Hancock has it now too says Sky News, I wonder how many more?

I'd hasard a guess at all of those who have been attending cabinet meetings in person.

I've read that the "good quality" tests have a 3% rate of false readings

Only if the swabs are taken properly.

Anecdotally the rate of false negatives appears to be much higher than this.

Also, the people being tested now are symptomatic people and still a good proportion of tests are coming back negative. Yet doctors are saying that in their hospitals, all the cases are the same.

I'll dig up a thread on twitter by a doctor who was asking other doctors about their practice with a CV- patient with CV+ symptoms.

Clash 😂
At least some of the ecoomy is still running !

BCF re the perils of negative tests in a CV+ patient, thread with input from doctors on twitter:

twitter.com/mancunianmedic/status/1242434933446127616?s=21

I've just watched our local (well-known) cannabis dealer drop a baggie off on someone's doorstep, spray it with dettol and ring the doorbell before retreating two metres.

Sorry this made me laugh!
Was it to boris' flat??!!

Laughing aside, DD2's GF has it. Not tested, but symptoms are textbook. She's 17 and has asthma so we are worried. They haven't seen each other for a fortnight and she was social isolating before because her brother had it, very little chance of transmission to our household, but we're glad we have been isolating just in case.