Westminstenders: Events...

[RedToothBrush]

Events have taken over. EU / UK negotiation have been put on ice due to covid-19.

The US has banned all travel from Europe - apart from to the uk and Ireland - in a manner which is highly political to drive wedges.

The effects of leaving the European Medicines Agency may be much more serious than anyone could have anticipated.

There's a oil price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia which has further driven market fears led by covid-19.

There the crisis in Turkey with Syrian refugees which is also distracting the EU.

We are facing lockdown and economic turmoil over the next weeks and months.

Johnson is having his leadership moment with deaths projected to possibly exceed UK WW2 deaths.

We are desperately trying to recruit negotiators as it's suddenly become apparent we don't have enough to carry out all the trade deals we want.

The civil service will be stretched to its limited by covid-19. Yet we also have Brexit to consider.

Where next? How bad are things going to get?

I think the "many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time” has seriously scared a lot of people

Now that is the most scary thing. Scared people tend not to think or act rationally.

Fully agree DG. I see that around me already. From the immediate panic buying (that I hadnt seen where I am until yesterday pm) to people getting more ans more worked up when companies/institutions do go way over board compare the gvernmnet guidelines. And of course the old 'Look at him/her. They are coughing, they MUST have CV' with the associated (verbal) abuse.

assuming we are as 'good' as the chinese to deal with an epidemy

Why would you assume that?

Whilst that may be true, there are plenty of other threads you could have offered that pearl of wisdom to before us swine ....

Im not assuming anything Queen.

I am actually thinking that the Chinese have the upper hand. Both because they are much more reactive than we are, with a system that is more flexible than ours. And because they have extensively used chinese medicine on the top of western medicine to treat people.
However, I am also very sure that this is not how most people see it. And I am also pretty sure people would be very shocked if they were told the NHS isnt as good as the chinese health system.

NomDeDieu, you wrote If we go by numbers only (and assuming we are as 'good' as the chinese to deal with an epidemy), then surely the number of deaths shouldnt exceed 3000~4000 in the UK?

That sounds to me as though you were not only making that assumption, but basing your whole conclusion on it.

And maybe some people would be surprised by the idea that the Chinese healthcare system is better than the NHS, but you won’t find many of them on this thread!

And because they have extensively used chinese medicine on the top of western medicine to treat people.

Also missing this week: homeopathists ....

@NomDeDieu
I believe the numbers only include those that they have a positive test for - many reports of people dying in their apartments at the peak of the crisis - or out in the provinces, and those numbers not counted.
A bit like scientists here being shocked the government here is no longer testing widely, and trump hardly at all, so the official numbers say one thing- but the real story is something completely different.

I'm grateful for my Brexit stockpile

....still good for 20 weeks worth of loo roll, without having bought any since before Christmas

And can feed ourselves for weeks with a combination of the store cupboard and freezer. I've just re-activated my sourdough starter too.

Plus there is/was the whole welding people into their apartment buildings......

Well I obviously haven’t made myself clear (I have been on those threads for years btw, under many different names).

My point followed BCF comment that she fears a global recession, worse than the 1920~1930 because If we have say ¼ million consumers fewer in each of the medium-sized countries like the Uk, Italy, France and ¼ million fewer people needing homes etc Then it will lead to a rise in populism etc....

I’ll leave you carrying on discussing wo interfering.

If we go by numbers only (and assuming we are as 'good' as the chinese to deal with an epidemy), then surely the number of deaths shouldnt exceed 3000~4000 in the UK?

The Chinese imposed drastic, authoritarian measures that would be difficult or impossible to impose in the west and thereby limited infections to probably a few hundred thousand (more than the official number for sure, but I'd bet on less than a million).

Bear in mind that even far from Wuhan, in places like Shanghai and Shenzhen where my colleagues live, people's personal liberty was drastically reduced even while there were very few cases in those cities. We had to send a pack of face masks to one colleague so he could go out of his flat!

Hard to do that here, although people are getting scared enough now that governments can act firmly and still keep the support of the population - see Macron's remarks yesterday and further drastic measures introduced today effectively limiting most activities in France to ten people.

Pmk

"If we go by numbers only (and assuming we are as 'good' as the chinese to deal with an epidemy), then surely the number of deaths shouldnt exceed 3000~4000 in the UK?"

Western countries can't lockdown their populations for months like the Chinese dictatorship

Stock markets wouldn't have crashed over a few thousand deaths in each of the Western countries

BJ wouldn't be warning the UK like this if he just expected a few thousand extra deaths, less than the increase from a bad flu:

"many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time.”

Whitty is predicting up to 80% will catch it in the UK, reasonable - not wild - worst case with around 1% mortality

Merkel saying expect maybe 60% in Germany

• I live here and the German health service is far better resourced than the NHS, far more doctors, hospital & ICO beds per 10,000 population

"because they have extensively used chinese medicine on the top of western medicine to treat people"

Their bloody bats, pangolins etc are what started this epidemic, how they gave it to us all
and Chinese medicine uses these poor bloody animals, hence the mixing in "wet markets"

Proof Facebook is watching my browser tabs

Good piece on R4 Inside Science yesterday. The problem is most likely the Chinese live animal markets where cages and crates of various species are stacked one on top of the other: The bats shit on the pangolins. The pangolins shit on the bats. Etc.

The Chinese are embarrased and trying to come up with an alternative cause involving imports from somewhere.

Yes. Half of the people who should be self-isolating are deciding that the government obviously didn't mean them.

Do we have the resources to enforce self-isolation? We're already stretched at the best of times, so the answer is no.

And, whilst the government are in a pretty safe position right now, I suspect they would like to win the next election... A problem China doesn't have.

Dhs japan trip next month postponed.

I've been invited to a spa day thing next month...for a b day...do I go?

Misti The Chinese imposed drastic, authoritarian measures that would be difficult or impossible to impose in the west

The govt may have factored that in to not starting a lockdown too early.

Maybe they also surmised that people might 'lock themselves down' or opt out of normal life more if was their own decision, rather than by dictat.

Also they've cleverly put the responsibility onto the public to self-isolate, rather than all on the government/NHS to keep people safe.

That way they can't be blamed so much? "Well you didn't properly self-isolate..." etc.

Tbh an element of some folk being collateral damage is coming across. We need to develop 'herd immunity' but we face 'losing loved ones before their time'.
Disturbing.

Yup - using "self-isolate" rather than "quarantine" puts the onus on to the individual and absolves the government of responsibility

And also of course places responsibility on businesses, not govt. I freelance for a multinational - some of their procedures are a PITA, but I cannot fault their approach to staff wellbeing, wfh, travel/events cancelled, etc.

On the upside, it's a golden opportunity for retailers to circumvent their customers GDPR preferences by sending out spam disguised as "information about coronavirus" (he says, binning the 6th he's received today ....)

If there are any marketing directors out there who have missed this trick, may I put myself forward to their boards as a replacement .

I wonder if peoples social media is going to become incredibly bland and anodyne ? After all, imagine the backlash when someone who's just told work they are "self isolating" (or is it social distancing, things move so fast these days) pops up the pics of "me and the posse at a party" on FB/Instagram ?

Local elections cancelled for 12 months.

Thatcould help labour I guess