Westministenders: Canada Plus and the Transition Phase

[RedToothBrush]

As we approach the 31st January, we slowly tick towards exit and transition.

Things are not yet signed off though the No Deal planning has quietly been stood down with no press release and the government have said they won't talk about trade deals post 31st Jan because the public are bored of them and don't understand.

The new EU president has said that the UK doesn't have time to make a full deal with the EU before 31st December with a deadline which isn't flexible.

We still have no idea what the government plans are. We still have many EU citizens feeling very vulnerable.

Perhaps we should start talking about this rather than Royals for a couple of weeks...

[BigChocFrenzy]

I may be overly optimistic, but I'm NOT expecting major job losses / company pullouts / economic problems during transition

Companies who have invested heavily in the UK will wait until the new trade deal has actually been signed and only then, if it is a hard Brexit, close down production lines / factories

Even after that, imo they'd all wait until the end of current production cycles, about 4 years for car models, to get the most out of their investment before quitting

[BigChocFrenzy]

"Musk told trade magazine Auto Expresss that uncertainty over the U.K.’s decision to withdraw from the European Unionn “made it too risky” to establish its European battery facility in the country."

No company is going to make a public statement that Brexit was idiotic, but EGon Musk went further than most in stating the main reason

[Clavinova]

No company is going to make a public statement that Brexit was idiotic, but EGon Musk went further than most in stating the main reason

Where is your evidence that the UK was the leading contender for the factory? If Elon Musk was asked after the event, "Why didn't you build the factory in the UK?" - he may well have answered - "Because of Brexit uncertainty" - that doesn't mean that the UK was being considered above Spain or France etc...

[boatyardblues]

Surprised no one picked up on the possibility of fishing rights being exchanged for access to the financial services markets. The lack of outrage suggests all the bad news is being quietly curated.

I noticed that and recalled the Cornish trawlermen interviewed on R4 earlier this week talking about how things would look up once EU-based fleets were excluded from the UK’s territorial waters. I wonder how long its going to take the majority of ardent leavers to twig they’ve been sold a pup.

[AuldAlliance]

Clavinova
Elon Musk is quoted thus by Auto Express
“Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK,” Musk said.

Which might also suggest that it wasn't even in a position to be ranked in comparison to France or Spain.

[malylis]

wow clav, there are loads of articles out there saying that the UK would be a base and that Musk originally played down the risks of Brexit.

Surely you could have copied and pasted that?

[DGRossetti]

I noticed that and recalled the Cornish trawlermen interviewed on R4 earlier this week talking about how things would look up once EU-based fleets were excluded from the UK’s territorial waters. I wonder how long its going to take the majority of ardent leavers to twig they’ve been sold a pup.

Wait till Boris new friends in Grimsby realise ...

[Mockers2020Vision]

The fishing argument is the complete reverse of BJ's BMWs and Prosecco argument: They absolutely need to buy our sea urchins and hake. (For which there is no market in the UK.)

[malylis]

I think lots of fisherman are going to be shocked that they also don't get to fish in EU waters if we exclude EU boats.

Suddenly being only able to fish in half of the north sea next to England will be a pain.

[Mockers2020Vision]

And the wider Brexit support seemingly blissfully ignorant that most of the white fish we eat in UK comes from The Alaskan Pacific, Greenland and Iceland. (The country, not the shop.)

[DGRossetti]

I think lots of fisherman are going to be shocked that they also don't get to fish in EU waters if we exclude EU boats.[]Suddenly being only able to fish in half of the north sea next to England will be a pain.

It's not inconceivable that UK boats could be excluded from UK waters a a part of the deal. After all, don't want to use up the reserves, and EU boats need to be able to catch something.

[DGRossetti]

And the wider Brexit support seemingly blissfully ignorant

really, you could have just stopped there ...

that most of the white fish we eat in UK comes from The Alaskan Pacific, Greenland and Iceland. (The country, not the shop.)

No additional details needed.

[Clavinova]

malylis

All sorts of reasons (apart from Brexit) given here;

"Second, despite the Tesla Model III hitting the UK best sellers list in August, the UK is lagging other European countries in take up of electric vehicles."

"Partly that is down to the government cutting subsidies for electric vehicles prematurely, just as they are being increased in the likes of Germany."

"Furthermore, much more generous and wide ranging support is available in countries like Norway where 50% of new car sales are electric."

"Also the UK’s charging infrastructure is patchy across parts of the country and needs much more investment in next generation super-fast chargers."

"In contrast, the German government is committing big support for take up of electric vehicles in coming years."

ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-uncertainty-means-tesla-choses-germany-for-european-for-new-factory/

The blog refers to what Elon Musk said in 2014 - they obviously missed this bit out;

"Musk though admitted that a full manufacturing base in Britain was more unikely: "We will look strongly at a factory in the UK if the market justifies it. But if we do full production in Europe it’s more likely to be on the continent. We already have a final assembly plant in the Netherlands."

www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/tesla-keen-set-uk-research-and-development-facility

[malylis]

Except it was still given as the main reason.

Copy and paste away, hope you were a better lawyer.

[Mockers2020Vision]

Nice to see British Airways are going to ask the EU to block the FlyBE bailout, because from Feb 1 we shall be subject to EU state aid rules but without a seat at the table.

[malylis]

But its the same every time people discuss industries highlighting risks of brexit, or it being cited as a cause in a firm leaving the UK. You turn up, copy and paste a load stuff which is then often wilfully misinterpreted, or desperately so.

[LouiseCollins28]

Here's an interesting one. The EU apparently showing some flexibility?! Wonders never cease.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/15/eu-will-not-force-statutory-minimum-wage-on-nordic-countries

[AuldAlliance]

LouiseCollins Given how many opt-outs the UK obtained over the years, the EU's flexibility is hardly in doubt.

[Clavinova]

The Auto Express/Elon Musk factory article was from November 2019 - I'm not sure why they were so surprised - this was written 18 months earlier;

June 2018: "STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - U.S. electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) favors Germany as the location for its first European Gigafactory, its chief executive said, in what would be the latest move by an outside firm into the European battery market."

"Germany is a leading choice for Europe. Perhaps on the German-French border makes sense, near the Benelux countries," Tesla's billionaire boss Elon Musk said on Twitter here Tuesday, responding to a public tweet."

"Tesla already has operations in Pruem, Germany, which is only 30 kilometers from Belgium, and about 100 kilometers from the French border."

"Pruem is the headquarters for Tesla’s Grohmann Engineering division, which specialises in automated manufacturing systems for battery making plants. Grohmann recently built a production line for Tesla’s U.S. battery factory in Reno, Nevada, to speed up production for its Model 3 electric sedan."

uk.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-europe-gigafactory/teslas-musk-says-germany-a-front-runner-for-europe-gigafactory-idUKKBN1JG1EJ

[DGRossetti]

Here's an interesting one. The EU apparently showing some flexibility?! Wonders never cease

Why it's almost as if the Leave campaign was a load of bollocks ?

Anyway, it's moot now. As is pointed out we're leaving in 16 days.

[Clavinova]

Except it was still given as the main reason.

Only because they were quoting Auto Express magazine - who appear to have been caught napping.

[LouiseCollins28]

The EUs flexibility is in "a lot" of doubt from my POV given their stance so far in the Brexit negotiations. Even today I am hearing that they will insist on a), b) and c) as the price of any deal they make, including, curiously, continuing to hold the UK after it leaves to different standards than those of remaining member states

www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/14/eu-will-protect-fishing-communities-in-post-brexit-talks

Just perverse in my view.

[howabout]

According to this article the EU lacks competence in setting minimum wages in any event Louise - no idea if it is correct and no concrete proposals from the EU yet in any case.

euobserver.com/opinion/147050

[howabout]

The rules based nature of the EU and the way in which it accepts its External negotiating mandate from its Membership makes flexibility a practical impossibility.

This is why it can only set out its position in terms of your either All In or All Out. It is then for the Membership to inject the necessary political expediency as and when. The mistake TM made was in not fully appreciating this. Boris appears to completely get it hence why, contrary to all expectations he could get a "New" Deal agreed tout suite.

[Peregrina]

They absolutely need to buy our sea urchins and hake. (For which there is no market in the UK.)

Some clever marketing is all that is required. People are quite happy to eat merluza in Spain and erizo de mar sounds positively exotic. A bit like people happily eat calamares, but throw up their hands in horror at eating squid tubes.