Westministenders: Canada Plus and the Transition Phase

[RedToothBrush]

As we approach the 31st January, we slowly tick towards exit and transition.

Things are not yet signed off though the No Deal planning has quietly been stood down with no press release and the government have said they won't talk about trade deals post 31st Jan because the public are bored of them and don't understand.

The new EU president has said that the UK doesn't have time to make a full deal with the EU before 31st December with a deadline which isn't flexible.

We still have no idea what the government plans are. We still have many EU citizens feeling very vulnerable.

Perhaps we should start talking about this rather than Royals for a couple of weeks...

[Clavinova]

Steelworks shutting in some of the areas near me that went tory. Citing brexit uncertainties

The BBC and the Guardian don't mention Brexit as a specific cause in their articles - published the same day as the Sheffield Star link - the managing director in that link is not actually quoted as referring to Brexit either;

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-51049906
www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/09/liberty-steel-and-hitachi-rail-plan-to-shed-up-505-jobs-in-uk

On the positive side - a link on the Star's page;

"How Sheffield will transform in 2020 and beyond with schemes worth £1.4 billion."

www.thestar.co.uk/business/how-sheffield-will-transform-2020-and-beyond-schemes-worth-ps14-billion-1346536?itm_source=parsely-api

[DGRossetti]

"How Sheffield will transform in 2020 and beyond with schemes worth £1.4 billion."

From early indications here in the Midlands, any money (and we have to ask where it's coming from) seems to be going on trying to go back to the 1980s. It's a little like the BBC receiving loads of money in the 1960s and deciding to upgrade their radio transmitters.

It's probably not politically correct to say it, but a lot of Mancunians say the best thing to happen to Manchester was the '96 bomb as it rather took planning decisions out of political hands, and forced a complete rebuild.

I wonder if Storm Brendan was trying to tell us something.

[jasjas1973]

The more difficult thing to judge is whether there will be a post Brexit bounce and where the rEU economy is going. Depends if Christine Lagarde wins the argument on fiscal stimulus

Why is there Brexit uncertainty or any doubt as to a Brexit bounce? i understood there is a tidal wave of inward investment (circa £150 billion) heading our way?
Johnson repeated this many times.

[squid4]

Sheffield did not vote, or swing, Tory at all. This is on stocksbridge.

[squid4]

I don't even have the strength to talk about Matt Hancock today.

[Clavinova]

Sheffield did not vote, or swing, Tory at all.This is on stocksbridge.

Sheffield City Council are counting Penistone and Stocksbridge as the black sheep of the family;

www.sheffield.gov.uk/content/sheffield/home/your-city-council/elected-representatives.html

•Miriam Joy Cates (Penistone and Stocksbridge)

Also published in the Star today:

"Despite the political uncertainty and delays over Brexit, the number of entrepreneurs setting up in the region soared."

"Data from the Centre for Entrepreneurs shows 196 new tech start-up firms were created in Sheffield last year alone.That’s up six per cent on 2018 and puts the city in the top 20 areas for the sector in the UK."

"Meanwhile, last year was the biggest on record for all start-ups in the UK. According to data from Companies House, 678,288 firms were registered in 2019, an all-time record."

[ContinuityError]

@howabout

Centre Parcs, Legoland and similar are a niche market that have always charged a premium rate and target middle class families. If they are heavily discounting then it’s indicating a loss of consumer confidence and an unwillingness to spend on “premium” offerings.

See report here on loss of business spend:

www.uhy-uk.com/news-events/news/uk-hotel-insolvencies-hit-five-year-high/

[Clavinova]

I see that Miriam Coates (Conservative) ousted Angela Smith - originally Labour, then Change, then Independent, then Lib Dems!

[QueenOfThorns]

It's probably not politically correct to say it, but a lot of Mancunians say the best thing to happen to Manchester was the '96 bomb as it rather took planning decisions out of political hands, and forced a complete rebuild.

Yes, the bomb made a big difference in that immediate part of the city centre. I think that the 2002 Commonwealth Games had a bigger lasting impact though.

[Clavinova]

Correction - Miriam Cates

[BigChocFrenzy]

howabout Why are you expecting a post-Brexit bounce ?
Is it just because Leavers will feel like they've won and start spending a lot ?

The economic reality is that Brexit will hammer trade with the EU, which takes 45% of our exports
and we also have to renegotiate - from a much weaker position - with non-EU countries taking about another 25%, since we lose the EU deals with them

[malylis]

Inflation being low is down to lower levels of consumer spending at retailer discounts rather than any economic stability.

[BigChocFrenzy]

We know that some car manufacturers in the Uk have cancelled investment
and some - see my post on Vauxhall - are saying they may pull out completely

We've lost new jobs & investment, some in the key tech areas for the future,
e.g.


Elon Musk blames Brexit for decision to build new Tesla factory in Germany instead of UK

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/13/elon-musk-brexit-to-blame-for-building-tesla-gigafactory-in-germany.html

< now I'll wait for howabout to say that investment from Musk would be a bad thing for the UK and we don't need it anyway >

[howabout]

The more difficult thing to judge is whether there will be a post Brexit bounce and where the rEU economy is going. Depends if Christine Lagarde wins the argument on fiscal stimulus.

As I said in pp Bigchoc. I make no claim that my crystal ball has any more insight than yours.

[Clavinova]

We have already rolled over continuity trade agreements with approx 50 of the 70 countries we had EU deals with.

[BigChocFrenzy]

That's not what I've read, clarinova

I have read that during the transition phase most countries have agreed to roll over their agreements,
which is also what the EU agreed to facilitate

I've only read of a few longterm agreements and they are NOt full rollovers, except for v small countries

[Pan2]

"It's probably not politically correct to say it, but a lot of Mancunians say the best thing to happen to Manchester was the '96 bomb as it rather took planning decisions out of political hands, and forced a complete rebuild"

yes it did have that effect, but it was limited to that section of the city centre - a lot of other things were going on and having Euro 96 footie comp having a Manchester base also helped with excellent Euro PR, and of course the Commonwealth Games.

[BigChocFrenzy]

e.g.
What have the UK and Switzerland agreed on their trade relationship post-Brexit?

(references Swiss government information sheet, prepared mainly for Swiss companies)

https://tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-and-swiss-trade-post-brexit/

Essentially, they are partly “rolling over” to the UK the present Swiss-EU trade relationship.

The roll-over is only “full”

• and ^only for goods, since services are not included at all -
  ^
  during the transition in the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement
  when the EU asks the other free-trade-agreement countries to treat the UK as if it were an EU member.^
  
  Otherwise, a number of significant parts of the Swiss-EU agreements are “disapplied”.

[BigChocFrenzy]

The House of Lords EU committee has examined the Swiss "rollover":

https://www.parliament.uk/business/lords/media-centre/house-of-lords-media-notices/2019/march-2019/lords-eu-committee-report-on-uk-switzerland-trade-agreement/

"The Committee notes that
the Trade Agreement differs significantly from the precursor agreement which the UK is party to as an EU Member State.

These differences include:

Most trade in services,
which make up 52% of all UK-Swiss trade, is not covered by the deal.

The Committee calls on the Government to explain its plans for future UK-Swiss trade in services.

The deal could place new limits on the export of agricultural products from the UK to Switzerland,
for instance raising the possibility that the UK will not be able to export products marketed as organic to Switzerland after Brexit.

Under the deal
Switzerland will no longer recognise the Authorised Economic Operator status of businesses accredited as AEOs in the UK,

which would mean they lose access to benefits such as fewer controls at the Swiss border."

[Pan2]

I am torn with Johnson.

I can't abide his fat, smug, shiny, lying face. I try to keep him out of my lounge.

But he should be open to public scrutiny more and some of that is done by tv. I just can't stomach the experience.

[BigChocFrenzy]

Canada is also reportedly refusing to roll over

Like many countries, they are waiting to see the future trade deal with the EU

If the UK ends up waving through imports without tariffs etc - which if it does so, would have to be for ALL countries - then that is a better deal for many countries like Canada than ny rollover

[Clavinova]

Elon Musk blames Brexit for decision to build new Tesla factory in Germany instead of UK.

Not exactly - the Auto Express link says the UK wasn't considered for the factory - it may have been 3rd or 5th choice without Brexit - and the quote was collected 'privately' after the press conference - nothing to back it up anyway.

[DGRossetti]

Surprised no one picked up on the possibility of fishing rights being exchanged for access to the financial services markets. The lack of outrage suggests all the bad news is being quietly curated.

[Pan2]

Differences: BCF is providing convincing economic information with analysis regarding future trade arrangements. I on the other hand are merely seeing how far my toys can be thrown.

[malylis]

Big choc is right on lots of these deals being for the short term, some of then not quite exactly on the same terms as the EU already.