Westministenders: Canada Plus and the Transition Phase

[RedToothBrush]

As we approach the 31st January, we slowly tick towards exit and transition.

Things are not yet signed off though the No Deal planning has quietly been stood down with no press release and the government have said they won't talk about trade deals post 31st Jan because the public are bored of them and don't understand.

The new EU president has said that the UK doesn't have time to make a full deal with the EU before 31st December with a deadline which isn't flexible.

We still have no idea what the government plans are. We still have many EU citizens feeling very vulnerable.

Perhaps we should start talking about this rather than Royals for a couple of weeks...

[DGRossetti]

Or given that we heard a lot about Henry VIII powers in May's Government, going back even earlier.

Are Henry VIII powers of any concern to Scotland ?

[Peregrina]

I don't know whether Henry VIII powers apply in Scotland, but they obviously do in Westminster and there is an interaction between Scotland and Westminster.

[DGRossetti]

I'm sensing that there is a coming together. It is happening. Organically and without (and certain away from the) direction government would like. And it's around the fact that no one is going to like the Brexit that is being revealed (like a rather seedy pub stripper ...).

I can easily envisage 6 months hence all the talk being of how shit Boris and the Boys are doing being the one subject that the whole country agrees on. It's already started with the deep reluctance of Brexiteers to own their victory with bells, bongs, parades and a day off.

If you want bongs ....

Hanging on in quiet desperation seems the English way ...

[TheElementsSong]

PMK! I've been distracting myself by going all-out for Chinese New Year (never bothered to such an extent before). I've been doing crafts with DDs to make decorations for the whole house. And doing a lot of baking of traditional cookies 😋 Gives us all something positive and happy for the end of January.

[BigChocFrenzy]

"If you are all correct in suggesting Brexit will actually depress growth then UK consumers will become even less likely to spend money on bespoke Mercs"

Howabout Experience suggests that in any downturn the wealthy will suffer the least and won't significantly lower their standard of living

It is the poor and middle income - i.e. the bulk of the population - who will feel it
and cut back, especially on discretionary "luxuries" like haircuts and meals out,
which will have a knock-on effect on micro businesses

Also - see my post above about Vauxhall - people may have much less choice in UK-manufactured cars and other goods

[DGRossetti]

www.theregister.co.uk/2020/01/15/brexit_uncertainly_cios_warned_by_gartner/

[borntobequiet]

I too think that over the course of the year we will see BJ and pals "owning" Brexit and all its damaging consequences both political and economic. When the election result came through I thought this was the only good thing about it.

[Peregrina]

I think BJ and pals will do everything in their power not to own Brexit, unless by some miracle it happens to be a success. However, what the public thin, despite a rabid right wing press, is something they can't fully control. It's also the case that it's not what is so, but what is believed to be so, which matters, and the two don't always collide.

[TheElementsSong]

I too think that over the course of the year we will see BJ and pals "owning" Brexit and all its damaging consequences both political and economic. When the election result came through I thought this was the only good thing about it.

Nah, the excuses have been well bedded-in since 2016, just minor modifications in wording required.

👉It's Remoaners' fault for Talking Britain Down/ Talking At All
👉It's Remoaners' fault for Not Pulling Together/Not Making Suggestions for New Brexitannia
👉It's the EU's fault for BullyingPunishment
👉Something something Brexit Uncertainty
👉X would Have Happened Anyway

and if all else fails,

👉Fake News!

[Peregrina]

I too thought that this was the only good thing about BJ's win - he can't blame 'Remoaner' MPs, he won't be able to blame Corbyn, he can't blame the LibDems. He can still try blaming the EU as much as possibly, but essentially Brexit is a Tory project and it's theirs to own.

I do look forward to seeing these 50,000 nurses and 40 new hospitals, within the lifetime of this Government.

[Peregrina]

What the public think not "public thin" - although for individual members of the public, being a bit thinner would be a desirable outcome.

[DGRossetti]

I too think that over the course of the year we will see BJ and pals "owning" Brexit and all its damaging consequences both political and economic.

Curiously I think the opposite. In a years time, the reportage will treat Brexit like some sort of natural catastrophe that poor Boris is doing his best to deal with - like a freak weather event. The actual fact it was self inflicted will be increasingly relegated to the ends of articles before being lost to history.

If it were possible for an alien to land in the UK in 2025, they would have to study really hard to discover that this "Brexit" that runs throughout the land like a stick of rock was actually a choice.

The closest parallel in modern times I could suggest are Prohibition in the US. And they are still paying the price for that clusterfuck and the damage it did a century on.

[Mockers2020Vision]

I do look forward to seeing these 50,000 nurses and 40 new hospitals, within the lifetime of this Government.

The "New" Hospital in Poole is the old one with the A&E closed, meaning patients from as far away as Dorchester have to crawl through the Bournemouth traffic.

[frumpety]

I think a minutes silence would be a far better marker for Brexit than Big Ben bonging.

[DGRossetti]

I too thought that this was the only good thing about BJ's win - he can't blame 'Remoaner' MPs, he won't be able to blame Corbyn, he can't blame the LibDems.

What in the past 50 years of political debate makes you think that ? Even in the 90s, we were being told how about how "Labour in the 70s ....". Even now with 12 years to correct it, we are told it's "Labours 2008 ..."

When we weren't in the EEC it was because we weren't. When we were it was because we were.

[ContinuityError]

UK inflation today came in below expectations. One of the reasons cited was hotels "slashing" rates - my email inbox is currently full of "special offers". This is the point about sellers seeking to use Brexit to gouge.

Except it’s a bit more nuanced than just blaming it on “hotels gouging”.

London hotels are performing well, given that London is a major tourist destination, whilst regional hotels are struggling with increased costs, lower business traveller demand and competition from AirBnB. UK hotel insolvencies are at a 5 year high.

[DGRossetti]

UK inflation today came in below expectations.

So the economy is slowing. If that were possible.

[Mockers2020Vision]

It's always Labour's fault.

"Every Labour govt. ends in an economic crisis" is technically accurate. It's a jump from that to claiming that Labour was to blame for the Wall St Crash of 29, The Korean War, Lehmann Brothers and the collapse of the sub-prime market. It is also very inconsiderate of Labour to not be in power when the Oil Crisis of 73 hit, Black Monday etc.

[squid4]

Steelworks shutting in some of the areas near me that went tory. Citing brexit uncertainties. 283 jobs likely to be lost.

www.thestar.co.uk/business/hundreds-workers-sheffield-steel-firm-face-redundancy-bosses-blaming-political-uncertainty-and-brexit-falling-demand-1359608

[squid4]

*Sorry - not shutting - redundancies

[Peregrina]

Mind you, Blair also quite happily blamed Thatcher for the north's woes. Labour had 13 years in power, they could have done more there. I know they did do lots of things, like put more money into education, but having well stocked stationery cupboards in school is not visible in the same way as lost jobs are.

[DGRossetti]

Labour had 13 years in power, they could have done more there.

If they hadn't dragged the UK into an illegal and needless war.

[yellowallpaper]

American VIP saying to get a good deal with America Boris needs to agree to leave the Brussels agreement on Iran's nuclear capability and stand with Trump. Then back-pedalled but clearly that's the thinking of the Trump government. A US trade deal is a huge big stick to beat is over the head with.

[DGRossetti]

A US trade deal is a huge big stick to beat is over the head with.

The problem with "US trade deals" is that even if agreed, it's at a federal level. There's zero compunction on individual companies to actually do business. In a country where choosing a supplier in another state can be contentious, why would any company buy anything from the UK unless it really wasn't available elsewhere, or the cost saving is enough to make it worthwhile. So on paper there may be a "deal". But making use of it may be problematic.

[howabout]

Continuity not just hotels though and my inbox is all legoland and CentreParks so not just business market either. The other key example of "discretionary" spend is ladies fashion which was also cited. Add in new car sales struggling and it looks very much like post the banking crisis when retailers tried to bump prices by fearmongering about credit shortages. Post Christmas they ended up almost giving away fashion overstock and Gordon Brown introduced the scrappage scheme, (why I bought my new car but didn't actually access GB's funding as the dealer offered me a pre-reg at an even better discount).

The more difficult thing to judge is whether there will be a post Brexit bounce and where the rEU economy is going. Depends if Christine Lagarde wins the argument on fiscal stimulus.