Someone please explain to me how no deal is still possible?

[eenymeenyminyme]

I thought they'd passed a law saying we couldn't leave with no deal, so as we don't have one (and it's not looking likely by the 16th) Boris has to ask for an extension?

But people are still talking about plans for no deal and how Boris is going to steamroller ahead with it anyway? Surely he can't do that if it's now illegal? I don't understand!

Small words please - this is frazzling my brain...

I do not think it a given that France won't veto. France is fed up and wants to move forward.

I know the EU don't want to leave with no deal, but given how things are isn't it a bit like choosing to cut off your leg because it's poisoned and gangrenous and sapping the strength from your body. No one wants to cut off their leg but there are exceptional circumstances where it would be the best thing to do.

France has significant issues with a large percentage of the population wishing to leave. If we do not pay the 39 billion France as the second biggest contributor has to cover a large part of our share. The riots this would cause and the disruption would be enormous. It's highly unlikely macron could stay in power if he was seen to be a driver behind it.

France will not veto, all macron is trying to do is show his own population what a bad idea coming out is and playing his home politics.

Don't get confused by that and the reality.

Germany is on the brink of recession, merkel alao can't afford to cover our share. It would topple them over, the redundancies alone in Germany due to it would be huge.

The other countries will call behind France and Germany and neither country can remotely risk no deal due to their domestic situations.

Bluntness we will have to agree to disagree. As a French voter I would, at this point, support Macron if he decides to veto. This unknown cannot go on.

Boris officially asks for an extension to obey law
EU says no as they know an extension is pointless
We crash out with no deal
The majority who voted leave get their EU membership cancelled (FINALLY!)

An extension would only be agreed if there's a chance for something material to change and as no one agreed to Theresa May's deal, this is what happens.

Easy
Boris asks for extension
EU refuse
NO DEAL

France is fed up and wants to move forward.

Everyone feels fed up and wants to move forward.

But this is one of the misleading narratives of Brexit; the idea of 'getting it done'. This concept of Brexit fatigue has been deliberately and carefully orchestrated. The truth is, the more ordinary people switch off from Brexit (whether that's out of boredom, frustration or lack of understanding), the easier it'll be to make progress on it.

I can't see the EU refusing an extension if one is requested. Why would it? It is not emotionally driven. For all the talk of it being fed up of Britain's antics and I'm sure at certain personal levels that's true the EU does not make decisions based on feelings. It makes them based on what is pragmatic and least damaging to itself and its members (which of course still includes the UK, for now anyway). That will mean granting the UK an extension. Of course, the ongoing narrative demands that there'll be some posturing around that, and some political specifics to handle especially in France, Germany, Spain and Ireland.

Brexit is a process, not an event. If we leave and I think we will it's just the start. There is no such thing as a 'clean break Brexit'; that's just press- and social media-friendly phrasing to make Brexit sound like a straightforward, definitive solution to an ongoing problem (which is misrepresentation on all fronts).

In reality, the process of Brexit involves the careful and quite boring unpicking one set of agreements built up over 40+ years, and the setting up of alternatives. It will take 20 or 30 years to 'do' Brexit in its entirety, an idea which doesn't sit well with the 'get out, get out now' mentality.

We'll get an extension. We'll get a GE. And either that useless twat Johnson is out or opposition parties split the vote and that twat gets in.
Unless the Leave vote is split because Quitlings don't fall for Johnson anymore and prefer to be with the other extremists, namely the Brexit Farty.
So there's a small chance that twat gets dumped. That's the best I can think of.

We get a short extension. We have a GE. Bjcum gets in with majority. New Gov introduces JRM act which cancels Benn act and votes to leave. We leave.

" Bluntness100 Tue 08-Oct-19 14:31:18

France has significant issues with a large percentage of the population wishing to leave. If we do not pay the 39 billion France as the second biggest contributor has to cover a large part of our share. The riots this would cause and the disruption would be enormous. It's highly unlikely macron could stay in power if he was seen to be a driver behind it.
(...)
Germany is on the brink of recession, merkel alao can't afford to cover our share. It would topple them over, the redundancies alone in Germany due to it would be huge."

You are overestimating how much contries pay into the EU budget by bizzare amounts. Germany paying 1.1 instead of 1.0 of its yearly budget into the EU will not topple them into recession.

should read: 1.1 percent instead of 1.0 percent

Germany is upset enough to try to vote to cap their EU payments.

If we do not pay the 39 billion

Would the UK gov really be that stupid

If the UK does not pay what it owes, other countries are not going to want to deal with them.

BJ could comply with the Benn Act by requesting an extension of one hour, one day, or maybe one minute. Then, we leave with no deal.

No he can't: the letter specifying the length of time is part of the Act.

And the Act includes provision for what to do if the EU says it will only offer a different length (2 days for Parliament to vote or not for the different length).

Oh OK I didn't know that.

On the contrary bong, I think you're under estimating Germany's financial position now. It's not just what is paid, it's the other impacts.

Germany's job losses will be approx 300,000. Then there is the increased tariffs etc, thr impact is massive, and will indeed topple them into recesssion. Unless you know something merkel doesn't?

I noticed a member of the cabinet being interviewed today saying the usual "We will obey the law" but slipping in that Article 50 was also the law
Are they planning to leave on the 31st and then fight it out in court claiming that they were obeying a law that had been passed before the Benn Act?
Is this possible?
I'm baffled tbh
Help!

@mummmy2017 - What would an extension be for?

As far as I can tell, officially so they can continue to look for solutions for a deal. Unofficially to force Johnson to admit he can't just take us out with no Deal, and can't think of any ideas the EU like that his own side like, so can't do Brexit.

Then to buy time for either a 2nd referendum or a general election - which Labour seem to think they can with with Corbyn, although increasingly likely they might if Johnson has been forced to ask for an extension, the Tories may lose votes to the Brexit party, letting Labour and Lib Dems pick up some of those seats.

I feel your forgetting one massive point, the longer this goes on the more it becomes Parliament not doing as they said.
You feel they are saving you.
Millions feel they are lying to us,using any means to get their way.

The notion that there is a universe in which we might not, in the end, pay the divorce bill is the product of the mind of a demented lobotomised rubber plant.

This piddling little sum has been more than matched by our losses to date from the fall in the value of Sterling, never mind after No Deal.

It's like that Russian plane where the pilot let his 12 y/o son take the controls and he smashed it into the ground. Get off the flight deck and let the grown-ups handle this.

France has significant issues with a large percentage of the population wishing to leave.

It did have. Oddly enough, the spectacle over the Channel has cast a something of a pall over Frexit plans. Marine may pop up again when elections loom, and try to drum up support, but the UK has demonstrated rather superbly what a complex issue leaving the EU is, and voters around the Channel ports will be all too aware of the costs.

France has land borders with 7 EU member states...

7 if you count microstates...

OK here's one, Johnson says he will submit a letter, but he doesn't do it.
Deadline passes, we're out.
Johnson might go to court, but will rely on legal fuckery to get him off, and act like a fucking martyr.
We're out, he's in, we're fucked.
Can that happen?

the spectacle over the Channel has cast a something of a pall over Frexit plans.

The main Frexit party polls about 1%.

Le Pen's party isn't really a Frexit party any more, after she got her arse handed to her by Macron at the last presidential election. The RN like to do a bit of shitstirring, but they also like their European Parliament salaries and expenses (which they milk to the point of illegality). Europe will be used at the next election to win votes but they won't promise a referendum or any policies which might scare the electorate, because even RN voters think the Brits are insane.