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Brexit

Negotiating trade deals post-Brexit?

42 replies

Barbarara · 10/09/2019 05:57

How is it supposed to work post-Brexit when the govt has to negotiate its own international trade deals, after demonstrating on the world stage that it doesn’t consider international agreements to be binding?

OP posts:
Voila212 · 10/09/2019 12:26

It has just being announced that Ireland's Phil Hogan has being given the job of Trade Commissioner. He will be involved in any deal with the UK government after brexit and WTO.
<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/10/irish-pm-ally-phil-hogan-brexit-eu-trade-commissioner&ved=2ahUKEwiT2YPfkMbkAhUmQxUIHXzSCTYQFjAFegQICRAB&usg=AOvVaw1jvMU1vMeIIPHCUnbykse5" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/10/irish-pm-ally-phil-hogan-brexit-eu-trade-commissioner&ved=2ahUKEwiT2YPfkMbkAhUmQxUIHXzSCTYQFjAFegQICRAB&usg=AOvVaw1jvMU1vMeIIPHCUnbykse5

BogglesGoggles · 10/09/2019 12:29

Other countries have already shown an eagerness to get deals on the table so while I’m not entirely sure what you mean (is this because parliament wouldn’t put through the deal, or because we’re leaving the EU - in which case that’s not really the same and the option to leave is a part of the treaty anyway) I don’t think it’s going to make much of a difference. Countries want to trade, theydont give a shot about the EU beyond it being a trading partner.

BogglesGoggles · 10/09/2019 12:31

@MysteryTripAgain unfortunately it doesn’t matter what the French think. One of the reasons why it’s so difficult to negotiate deals with the EU is the process. It doesn’t matter if one country goes to shit beyond how much the other MS care about it.

HerSymphonyAndSong · 10/09/2019 12:31

“Article 50 anticipates the possibility of a no deal. Has to be like that otherwise EU could prevent members from ever leaving the EU. Can't call that democratic“

I know this. It has nothing to do with what I said, but I expect you know that. Keep on topic please. What I said was, no deal is not leverage.

Fluandseptember · 10/09/2019 12:32

@meditrina and @doctorallcome friends of friends have been co-opted to start to make deals. All very clever, able, hard-working experienced civil servants. But they have no relevant language skills, and no experience AT ALL in trade negotiation - this has all been the responsibility of EU teams for decades. Cf the other side, who have teams of thousands, who have been working on these issues for years.

HerSymphonyAndSong · 10/09/2019 12:32

“Labour could be an obstacle too as they voted against the WA three times just to make the Conservative party look bad.”

Hahahahahaha

The conservatives are doing just fine at making themselves look bad on their own Grin

MysteryTripAgain · 10/09/2019 12:44

The conservatives are doing just fine at making themselves look bad on their own

Maybe, but polls show people fear Corbyn as PM more than they fear a no deal brexit. So I do not rate labour's chances of winning a general election

HerSymphonyAndSong · 10/09/2019 12:53

I was responding to you comment, remember

HerSymphonyAndSong · 10/09/2019 12:54

I said nothing about a GE. When you’re losing an argument (or just spaffing out posts in huge quantity to keep people busy and avoid the actual topic) widen it

ListeningQuietly · 10/09/2019 12:58

The UK team will speak loudly and slowly and call the other side "garcon"
it will be fine
Grin

MysteryTripAgain · 10/09/2019 12:59

What is widen it?

If Conservatives are rubbish, then labour must be more rubbish?

No deal is not the best option, but if not an option then easy for the other side to call all the shots.

DoctorAllcome · 10/09/2019 13:16

@Fluandseptember
I agree with you completely re general lack of trade negotiation experience and skills amongst the civil service. However, it is worth noting that the EU teams which have done trade negotiations for decades on behalf of the U.K. are multi-national teams that include British nationals. As the U.K. leaves the EU, these British nationals are out of a job and most probably are being head hunted to take over trade negotiations for the U.K. You are absolutely correct though about team size and resources. A few British ex-EU civil servants will not be enough to stand up a full international trade negotiation team to even do one agreement per year, much less the 80 or so that would need to be replaced. It’s why I’ve read that some civil servants propose cutting “EU” from the text of every trade agreement, pasting in “U.K.” and asking those nations to simply sign the dotted line. But unfortunately, it’s pretty arrogant to assume that the U.K. as a sole nation can expect the same T&Cs that those nations negotiated with the entire EU.

DoctorAllcome · 10/09/2019 13:21

@Hersymphonyandsong
Yes, no deal is not leverage and I agree it is a stupid negotiating tactic.

The same imho with threats to not pay the so called “divorce bill” which is really comprised of all the financial promises the U.K. has already signed up to pay (and which international courts would most certainly rule is owed no matter the outcome).

Fluandseptember · 10/09/2019 13:45

@DoctorAllcome yes let's hope the experienced folk do come back here!

But even if some of them do, we now need to do EVERYthing that the EU used to do for us, and to negotiate with long-formed well-established other nation teams.

I just can't see how this can go well!

DoctorAllcome · 10/09/2019 14:45

@Fluandseptember
I agree, I don’t see how it can go well either. At best, there will a be a massive learning curve as the few experienced ones try and train new civil servants. The politicians and public are not very forgiving and have unrealistic expectations imho. Especially since various MPs have constantly made promises about Brexit dividends, consumer costs going down, jobs galore, housing crisis fixed,- a veritable Promised Land. The reality cannot hope to match the promises so no matter how hard and how well these brave few do, they will likely get ingratitude and scorn.

MrsTerryPratchett · 10/09/2019 14:57

I can't help drawing an analogy with the DUP when I wonder how the UK will negotiate future trade deals when we are desperate and they are not.

Maybe we should send them. The DUP seem to make good deals.

Parker231 · 10/09/2019 17:00

Apparently a trade deal takes on average 28 months to negotiate.

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